Will WWIII start in China?

[furie]

Wang, vice-minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said curbing Taiwan's efforts toward independence is the main goal of the mainland, which will go to war if necessary. (http://msnbc.com/news/995390.asp?0cv=CB10)




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[Heavy]

Will WWIII start in China?

No.

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[Se7en]

[conservative talk-show host] What are you talking about? World War III is being fought now! [/conservative talk-show host]

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[FUNKMAN]

Beware of General Tzo. He can pack quite a wallop.


but we have Colonel Sanders and Captain Crunch...

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and when you're bad you die when you die

This message was edited by FUNKMAN on 12-1-03 @ 5:09 PM

[high fly]

"Youwan' shri-fry-rie?

" and they ask me why I drink"

[Furtherman]

China. The yellow war is coming.

I use to have a history professor who would scream that.

"China! That is the next war! The yellow war! There is a billion of them! You're all morons!"

He was hilarious.

But, to answer the question - Yes, it is possible for WW3 to start in China.

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[Se7en]

Here's a somewhat serious question for you folks -

do you see the Communist party in China surviving until the end of this century?

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[FUNKMAN]

do you see the Communist party in China surviving until the end of this century?


Yes

unless there is a nuclear war and we happen to come out on top...

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[A.J.]

Wang, vice-minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council

"Hey Wang, I heard the mainland discriminates so don't tell them you're Taiwanese, OK? Fine."

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[A.J.]

China has 496 ballistic missiles 'aimed at Taiwan'... (http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2003/12/02/2003078033)

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[curtoid]

[conservative talk-show host] What are you talking about? World War III is being fought now! [/conservative talk-show host]

[really conservative talk-show host]Wrong! This is World War 4 right now! World War 3 was the Cold War, which Reagan won all by himself!! [/really conservative talk-show host]

[KOP]

[furie]

[conservative talk-show host] What are you talking about? World War III is being fought now! [/conservative talk-show host]

[really conservative talk-show host]Wrong! This is World War 4 right now! World War 3 was the Cold War, which Reagan won all by himself!! [/really conservative talk-show host]


[extreme conservative talk-show host]WRONG! This is World War 5! WW3 was the cold war won by Renaldus Magnus, and WW4 was the impeachment of Clinton![/extreme conservative talk-show host]


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[East Side Dave]

Will WWIII start in China?


----This is your President. George W. Bush. To answer your question- Yes. Yes it will.----


*pushes red button*

*nuclear missiles sent out toward China*

*shakes hands with Mathew Broderick*


I've always loved "War Games," Mathew.

Thank you, Mr. President.


*they make out*







...This wasn't a post by the President, afterall! It was me- Dave! But I just wanted to demonstrate an important point that this scenario could very well happen. This is why we must, as a global community, scale down on nuclear arms and ultimately dis-arm altogether- and give the nuclear weapons to ME! Muhahahahamushmushmushcoughsputterhahaha!!! Then the WHOLE WORLD will be at my feet! And I shall rule with a mighty fist! Mightier than Larry Appleton when he used to beat Balki and Jennifer! Hahahaha!............anyone have a lasenge? All this maniacal laughing has made my throat a little sore...

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Big Ass Mafia

[curtoid]

...This wasn't a post by the President, afterall! It was me- Dave!


Ahhhh...shit, man! You totally had me fooled!

[KOP]

[Justice4all]

"Youwan' shri-fry-rie?





That's FRIED rice you PLICK!


Wang, vice-minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council


Everybody have fun tonight....Everybody Wang Chung tonight.

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[East Side Dave]

Ahhhh...shit, man! You totally had me fooled!


I gotcha! I gotcha, Kippy! Now pay up, beetlepoop!

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[high fly]

This is World War 4 right now...


NO NO NO NO NO!

This is World War 5!

The Drug War was World War 4.



Do I have to explain everything?
Sheesh.








" and they ask me why I drink"

This message was edited by high fly on 12-2-03 @ 7:38 PM

[high fly]

And shouldn't we stick to Roman Numerals, like the Super Bowl?


So this would be World War V.



" and they ask me why I drink"

[DarkHippie]

Here's a somewhat serious question for you folks -
do you see the Communist party in China surviving until the end of this century?

no, I don't. 97 years is a damn long time, and history moves too quick these days.

I don't know if WWIII will start in China, because i don't know if we will intervene over Taiwan:

We need China in order to help curb N. Korea. If China became our enemy (over Taiwan) we risk having two nuclear powers (N.korea & China) allied.

I believe that China understands the situation that it has us in, that is why its willing to make this bold statement.

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[high fly]

World War 5 dammit!



I mean V.





" and they ask me why I drink"

[NewYorkDragons80]

I am a big critic of Clinton, but I have to say that he stood by our allies in Formosa beautifully when he served as president. Bush isn't quite as forceful when it comes to this issue, but I am very confident that we would intervene militarily if such a crisis were to ever happen, God forbid. Tom Clancy wrote a great piece about the tremendous disadvantages China would face if she were to invade her neighbor. You can find it here (http://www.csua.berkeley.edu/~zeg/ctq1.html)

PS This would be WWIV, but who's keeping track?

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This message was edited by NewYorkDragons80 on 12-2-03 @ 9:26 PM

[DarkHippie]

Kudos for finding that Clancy piece, Dragon. He makes some great points.

I'm not enitrely convinced (i still feel like its a diplomatic pin) but i'd like to think that we would intervene. This is the kind of situation where i believe in using our military.

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[high fly]

So Clancy knows that the blue part on the map between China and Taiwan is water.

Duh.

China could pull it off.

First it hits Taiwan with a hail of missiles to get-em ducking down as paratroop/airborne types land in a coupla airports, followed by dozens of airliners chock fulla troops landing right behind them.
By the time we could get there with any meaningful sized forces, it would be mostly, if not all over.
The Taiwanese military is in poor shape.
You will recall that, faced with the threat of large scale missile attack, Taiwan appealed to the U.S. to sell Aegis equipped destroyers to counter the threat.
Bush hemmed and hawed, then gave in to the Chinese pressure and sold them destroyers that lack the Aegis system.

We would have a rough time getting forces there, as we now have over half of our deployable forces in the Persian Gulf and things not going well in Korea.
Plus we still have a long way to go before we have re-equipped our forces with weapons and spare parts like helicopter rotors and tracks for armored vehicles.






" and they ask me why I drink"

[furie]

hmm... maybe we should invade N. Korea then. It'll give us an excuse to put more troops in the region.


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[NewYorkDragons80]

First it hits Taiwan with a hail of missiles to get-em ducking down as paratroop/airborne types land in a coupla airports, followed by dozens of airliners chock fulla troops landing right behind them.
The Taiwanese military is in poor shape.
I isolated the 2 points which I disagree with most strongly. Number one, I doubt that a military, least of all the Republic of China's, would be hiding in bunkers with her air defenses on the back burner during a missile attack. They have run through these scenarios for 50 years. Give them some credit. Also, the motivations for such a conflict would be motivated mainly by economic reasons. Would a people so accustomed to autonomy and freedom suddenly submit to a repressive system that just killed most of their fellow countrymen in missile attacks? Through such a brutal invasion, the mainland could never achieve its ideals that motivated the conflict in the first place.
Two, the ROC military may not be what it was when Chiang Kai-Shek was calling the shots, but it certainly remains a formidable one. The island nation is home to one of the best-trained and best-equipped militaries on Earth.

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This message was edited by NewYorkDragons80 on 12-3-03 @ 8:14 PM

[high fly]

What air defences does Taiwan have against hundreds of missiles?
Next to nothing, I tell you.
Timed properly, a large scale air assault over Clancy's blue parts on the map would have a very good shot at success.
Red Chinese would just keep pouring in until they overwhelmed the Taiwanese with numbers.
Recent accounts I 've seen say Taiwan's military is not very good.

The motivation would not be economic, but this strong emotional reunification jag that's preoccupied Red China for over 50 years.



" and they ask me why I drink"

This message was edited by high fly on 12-4-03 @ 2:43 PM

[A.J.]

A successful invasion of an island nation could be aided greatly with an effective amphibious capability -- something China does not currently have.

China's Navy Today (http://www.navyleague.org/seapower/chinas_navy_today.htm)

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[high fly]

They'd have to do it all with light infantry.
I have presented a scenario for doing so.



" and they ask me why I drink"

[TheMojoPin]

"Hundreds of missiles?" Wow, watch out for those "hundreds." Taiwan's not THAT small.

And both China's air force and navy are pitfully prepared for an invasion of this scale. They'd have to leave the mainland essentially undefended, something I doubt they'd be willing to do with an army of 1 million just over the border in North Korea.

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[A.J.]

All by air? I don't think they have that kind of airlift capability.

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[high fly]

I doubt they'd use those hundreds of missiles to try to blanket the entire island.
They would keep up a steady barrage around selected targets, the object being to keep the heads of the Taiwanese down while they flew in troops on 747s or whatever else they've got, right behind the initial air assault.

Given the disposition of North Korea's army along the DMZ, somehow I don't think China is threatened by them.

" and they ask me why I drink"



This message was edited by high fly on 12-4-03 @ 3:12 PM

[TheMojoPin]

No, not threatened, because Taiwan isn't on the offensive. But they'd be stupid to not be intimidated by the defense.

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[high fly]

Huh?
Wha?

" and they ask me why I drink"

[NewYorkDragons80]

China is better off clinging to prestige by huffing and puffing at its "renegade province", than actually going forth with such a costly battle. The military of the ROC is strong enough to repel mainland invasion and even if they were not, the people would not stand for occupation from the mainland.

Is it within the realm of possibility that any of those "hundreds of missiles" could possibly strike American military or American civilians living on Formosa? Would the United States stand idly by while Red China kills Americans in a nation where the US has such strong ties?

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree when it comes to the ROC's capacity to repel Communist invaders, however, it is very hard to deny the inevitability of global intervention to rescue Taiwan.

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[high fly]

With our military as overstretched as it is, sure we'd be pissed if some Americans were "collateral damage", but China would pick a time when we couldn't respond in force. [edit--see pg. A1 of Dec.6th Washington Post, "Army Will Face dip in Readiness"]
Like if things heat up in on the Korean Peninsula and we need to send more troops to South Korea, or somewhere else.
As for our "strong ties", we have only informal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
It was part of Nixon's sellout.
The Red Chinese have an irrational, emotional desire to take Taiwan.
Recently one of their leaders said how they didn't care if the rest of the world was pissed at them if the invaded.

And why the quotes around "hundreds of missiles"?
Do you think China doesn't have them?

" and they ask me why I drink"

This message was edited by high fly on 12-6-03 @ 3:14 PM

[A.J.]

As for our "strong ties", we have only informal diplomatic relations with Taiwan.
It was part of Nixon's sellout.

Nixon established diplomatic relations with China by establishing "liaison offices".

Carter officially recognized China and closed off governmental relations with Taiwan after passage of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (http://www.usconsulate.org.hk/ustw/geninfo/tra1979.htm)

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[TheMojoPin]

And why the quotes around "hundreds of missiles"?

Because attacking Taiwan with "hundreds if missiles" is preposterous unless they're out to do a minimum of damage. It's not THAT small.

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[high fly]

Of course this is all just speculation.
The idea that China would or could follow a hail of missiles into Taiwan with airborne troops seizing airports, where China would fly in additional troops, is a scenario I have seen suggested elsewhere. It is a way for China to take the island in spite of a lack of classic amphibious ability.

As China has hundreds of missiles pointed at Taiwan, it seems reasonable to me that should they go to war, China would use them.

It would be kinda silly for China to go to war with Taiwan and not use them, wouldn't it?


And the map lesson from Clancy was kinda neat too, huh?



" and they ask me why I drink"






This message was edited by high fly on 12-8-03 @ 3:45 PM

[LiquidCourage]

We've already tied with them with far less forces. This time around we'd spank them. We'd just drop bombs on them all day.

[TheMojoPin]

fly, I'm not saying they wouldn't use them, I'm saying they'd use far more than "hundreds". Hundreds of non-nuclear missiles would take out a major city at best.

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[furie]

I don't think they would cause too much mass destruction if they could avoid it. They want those factories.


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[Recyclerz]

Bush to Taiwan: Sit Down & Shut Up! (http://www.msnbc.com/news/1002825.asp?0cv=CB10)

Bush doesn't want any part of China. And this is one thing he's right about.

They have the capacity and willingness to accept a lot more casualties than us. You don't pick a war with somebody like that.

They are now a defacto economic partner. If they wanted to fuck with us financially they could just dump some of the dollars they're collecting from the $100 billion trade surplus they have with us, which would hammer our bond and stock markets.

We've already backed down to them. Remember (Summer 2001) when one of their pilots buzzed one of our spy planes forcing it to crash land on one of their islands and we had to apologize to them for breaking their plane to get our people back? They haven't.


The good news is they have much to lose by picking a fight with us as well. So most of what China is doing now is bluster. Ten years from now, when their economy is bigger than ours is when we'll have to worry.




[b]Sig-less in Gaza[b]

[high fly]

The barage I have in mind would not target cities, but anti aircraft emplacements, barracks, yer command and control-type targets, the object being to get the Taiwan Chinee to take cover in their bunkers and stuff, while the airborne Red Chinee are a-landing. The object would not be widespread destruction.

I agree with you, Mojo, on the numbers. I think a lesson of the first Gulf war was not to fire off a handful of Scuds at a time, but to send them in larger numbers.
In this case, they would be used differently than how Saddam did.

What I am suggesting is a way to get large numbers of troops across Clancy's "wide...deep...water", y'know, the blue part on the map that he felt the need to explain.
I am saying that they could be flown in on regular airliners right behind an airborne assault that would seize a few airports...

" and they ask me why I drink"

This message was edited by high fly on 12-9-03 @ 8:26 PM

[HBox]

I'm really glad to see that President Bush is being a brave leader, sticking up for freedom against the biggest communist government in the world.

What a fraud. Yeah, let's stick up for freedom, but let's just forget that China and Saudi Arabia exist, because we like cheap oil and cheap stuff. And let's forget North Korea and Iran exist, because that would be too goddamned hard, wouldn't it?

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[Se7en]

You're incorrect both geographically, culturally, and ethnically with that picture, blackbird.

This is a set-back for Taiwan, but ultimately, I don't think Communism can survive indefinitely in China, especially with how many concessions they've already had to make due to the rapid westernization of portions of the country.

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[A.J.]

I don't think Communism can survive indefinitely in China, especially with how many concessions they've already had to make due to the rapid westernization of portions of the country.


Se7en makes a good point here. Soon China will have its first millionaires and as people continue to prosper under a democratic/capitalist economy they may help to force a change in leadership -- much like the way it happened in Russia.

The same thing could happen if we were to open trade with Cuba.

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[furie]

The absorption of Hong Kong Capitalism will be the eventual downfall of PRC Communism. If the PRC ever takes over Taiwan, and more capitalistic (is that a word?) ideas and infrastructure is introduced, then that's more poison for the communists.

But I do believe that PRC will invade someday, and this'll spark a larger conflict.



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MERRY CHRISTMAS!

[high fly]

Big ups to the Dubster for taking a stand against a referendum against the 500 missiles pointed at Taiwan!

During the Cuban Missile Crisis, our president would've taken the Soviet side....


Looks like Bush needs to amend all that talk about being for the spread of democracy around the globe...
(But then again, this is the guy who's providing national health care for Iraqis, but can't stand the thought of Americans having the same benefit...)

" and they ask me why I drink"

This message was edited by high fly on 12-10-03 @ 12:24 PM