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blakjeezis
07-02-2004, 05:40 AM
On the election?

The obvious answer is that he has influence over a fairly large block of voters, especially with the recent trends in voter turnout, that will follow his words. But I'm not so sure.

There are some listeners that probably have never voted, pay little attention to politics, and will vote solely on his vigor. But, and he is always pointing this out, a majority of his listeners are well-educated, upper middle class, white males. Typically this demographic has previous involvement in the process and already has formed opinions. I would also hazard a guess that a majority of these men tend to lean towards the Republican, although that's not necessarily true across the board.

The problems I see aren't necessarily what he's saying though. His very vocal criticism of Bush, and the support it's generated with the left, at least the celebrity left, as well as his acceptance of their support, is kind of a switch for both sides. For years traditional liberal power bases, womens' groups, gay rights groups, minority groups, have railed against his brand of humor on the grounds tha it is offensive. Now they are backing him in his quest to get Kerry elected. I think some of his listeners, especially those with a conservative agenda, will feel alienated not solely because of what he's saying, but also because of this marriage of political convenience. For so long Howard and these groups have been bitter enemies and now they're in bed with each other. The right-wing section of his fans are gonna feel betrayed by this and it might possible wind up costing him listeners as well as voters.

The other problem I have is not what he's saying, it's how he says it. His rants against Bush have the same venomous hyperbole that he would, and has, used in so many radio feuds. I'm not sure that tactic is effective in the political arena. It kind of falls in line with Michael Moore's stuff. It's so outrageous, so over the top, that I think it may have the opposite effect he's looking for.

The other side is that the conservative listeners are going to see the effects of Bush's religious, right-wing agenda, in a very real way. This is something that effects them on a day to day basis. Perhaps this will indeed turn them against Bush, as Stern hopes.

Or perhaps he's just some schmuck on the radio.

Edit: I'm trying to have a real discussion here. If you don't like Stern, don't listen to Stern, have lost interest in Stern, hate Stern, go post it somewhere else. I don't want to know your opinion of his show. Just what you think his effect on the election will be.

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This message was edited by blakjeezis on 7-2-04 @ 9:55 AM

walking joint
07-02-2004, 05:42 AM
my problem with him is all of his points lead back to his own problem with the FCC. he could make a valid point and then within seconds he goes off with the "just like they are doing to me" line and the next 15 minutes is him talking about being screwed. i'm not a huge fan of his anyway, but i can hardly listen to him anymore.

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fiestygal
07-02-2004, 06:06 AM
it's all about HIM ...and HIS needs...how will this affect HIM...blah blah blah



ARTE LANGE should be the new vice president




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BrownTown
07-02-2004, 06:09 AM
I can't imagine that he'll have an enormous influence on the election. I'm sure he'll manage to get some lazy asses out there that probably wouldn't have voted otherwise, but the majority of his audience that was probably heading out to the polls with their beliefs before his campaigning, are probably gonna be heading out to the polls with those same beliefs after. When he was going to run for govenor a few years back it was the same type of thing. Back then, I didn't believe educated voters could really vote for him, regardless of how much they liked his radio show. Today, I don't believe educated voters will really be influenced by his feelings towards Bush, regardless of how much they like his radio show.

<a href="http://www.sangwich.com">Listen To My Sounds</a>

This message was edited by BrownTown on 7-2-04 @ 10:10 AM

badorties
07-02-2004, 07:32 AM
very little, as much as pearl jam doing concerts in swing states this summer .... entertainers don't wield as much power as they think ...

stern is on what 40 stations, how many are in swing markets .... you can make more of an questioning limbaugh's pressence because he's in hundreds of markets ....

but if kerry wins, he'll take the credit ....

there'll be tons of needless hype and relentless self promotion ....

his 'crusade' fits his own personal agenda .... nothing more, nothing less


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JimBeam
07-02-2004, 09:01 AM
I agree that he won't have that much of an influence outside of maybe getting a few slackers to go vote.
I think he misunderstands his own audience.
He assumes that anybody who listens to him shares the same political ideology. That couldn't be further from the truth.
I'm sure a good portion of his listeners fall in that category but I'm sure an equal amount believe the exact opposite. The success of his show is due to the wide range of hisdemoraphic.

What he doesnt realize is that his show is tired.
The people that loved him 10 years ago have " grown up " in a way and dont listen anymore or just dont find him funny.

The FCC is in a way saving him from himself because he sucks so bad.
Him and his JC Penny catalog model girlfreind.

I have balls !!!

TheMojoPin
07-02-2004, 09:09 AM
Normally I'd say "not much"...but radio fans have been freaking out so much over the FCC stuff, that if Sterns feeds the flame of that panic towards Bush, he could potentially push som extra votes to Kerry.

Nevermind that the FCC shit would probably change ZERO under Kerry, but whatever...

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Doctor Manhattan
07-02-2004, 09:10 AM
He will have a very small effect. But even a small effect can be a key factor, especially in those swing states, in a close election.

So he's making this about himself, Big deal. Everyone in politics does that. Do you think W. Bush really cares about any of us? John Kerry? Nader? At least stern is an entertainer and is usually pretty honest about his selfish goals.

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Reephdweller
07-02-2004, 09:57 AM
Hey, maybe it'll turn out to be nothing but a Stern warning.




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Recyclerz
07-02-2004, 10:26 AM
I disagree with everybody here who is minimizing the potential effect that Stern could have for this reason: his audience is largely white males across the socio-economic bell curve. As Blakjeezis and others have pointed out this is Bush's main demographic strength. In my opinion, Stern appeals to a lot of guys who have bought into the Republican "brand": they want a tough, "take no shit" foreign policy and believe that the Republican anti-tax, small gov't. agenda/propaganda benefits them, when in actuality, it probably doesn't (but that is for a different thread). To the extent that Stern calls shenanigans on Bush, whether for interests of self-interest or not, it could peel away some of Bush's support and, with a race this tight it only has to be a shift on the margins to be decisive.

Plus, if he is still carrying on his feud with Imus, he has incentive to throw everything behind Kerry so as to demonstrate his juice, the way Imus bragged about putting Clinton over the top in the NY primary in '92. Since he's got enough money and the trophy girlfriend what Howard needs now is affirmation of his relevance.

And I also disagree with Mojo's contention that the FCC won't be affected by the election. Kerry would owe zip to the religious right and would have every incentive to score points with his base to needle the snake handlers who are a-scared of a half-naked boobie. I think his appointees will be more interested in selling off the broadcast spectrum rather than worrying about decency standards.

So I'm wishin' & hopin' & prayin'.... that Howard pulls this off. :)



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This message was edited by Recyclerz on 7-2-04 @ 2:28 PM

bigbaldirish
07-02-2004, 10:31 AM
honestly i think he will make a big difference. look at it this way, if 25 % of americans don't vote (just a guess, i'm not looking up stats on it. But if...) and half of them decide to vote because of howards ranting that raises the stakes just abit. assuming that everybody else votes for the same party they voted for last election. (and all votes get counted)

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BrownTown
07-02-2004, 10:31 AM
I poo poo at Stern's influence.

I'll bet you $1 Bush is elected for a 2nd term, no matter how much noise the "King of All Media" tries to make.

if 25 % of americans don't vote (just a guess, i'm not looking up stats on it. But if...) and half of them decide to vote because of howards ranting that raises the stakes just abit.

1. Do you honestly believe that the 25% that don't vote are all Stern fans?
2. Assuming (incorrectly) that they are, do you really believe that at least 1/2 of them would run to the polls for Howard? I don't.



<a href="http://www.sangwich.com">Listen To My Sounds</a>

This message was edited by BrownTown on 7-2-04 @ 2:37 PM

HBox
07-02-2004, 10:56 AM
I'll bet you $1 Bush is elected for a 2nd term

WHOA! You got some balls there, throwin around that kinda money.

And if only 25% of people didn't vote, that would be a major, major miracle.

http://www.myimgs.com/random/hbox/sig

bigbaldirish
07-02-2004, 11:09 AM
I poo poo at Stern's influence.

I'll bet you $1 Bush is elected for a 2nd term, no matter how much noise the "King of All Media" tries to make.

if 25 % of americans don't vote (just a guess, i'm not looking up stats on it. But if...) and half of them decide to vote because of howards ranting that raises the stakes just abit.

1. Do you honestly believe that the 25% that don't vote are all Stern fans?
2. Assuming (incorrectly) that they are, do you really believe that at least 1/2 of them would run to the polls for Howard? I don't.




no i don't assume that all are stern fans, and i never said that. and maybe stern is being a little greedy when it turns into mine mine mine, but i do believe that most people think that free speech is a good thing.

and about getting half the people up to vote, yeah why not?
A) in NY and NJ he helped bring close elections to his side of the vote
b) And in the hypothetical situation that it was Opie and Anthony (instead of howard) that had this happening to them, at least half of this board (that doesn't vote) would get up and vote.

Entertainers in General don't have much sway with voters. people i could actually talk to (like call in radio shows) could sway me. especially in this way, were freedom of speech is important to me, i like being able to criticize the president, you, Mike Moore, Mel gibson, and madonna without any kind of fear of repercussion.

it's only my opinion. but as it seems to me, when i listen to his show every morning on the way to work, alot of people agree with what's important to him.

i said i'm not looking up stats, that was an example of what it possibly could be.

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Doctor Manhattan
07-02-2004, 11:18 AM
Wasn't the 2000 election down to just a few hundred votes in Florida?

If the election comes down to something like that, I bet Stern could influence a few hundred fans. And with other entertainers doing the same, it could make the difference and we'll have a new president that we really don't know what he stands for, is kinda freaky looking and is way too rich to really need this job (If I had his money I wouldn't mess it up with becoming president, I'd just count my wife's Ketchup/Catsup money in my private plane)

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This message was edited by SKW on 7-2-04 @ 3:20 PM

sighborgh
07-02-2004, 11:40 AM
I think you make a lot of excellent points here. Was talking last night about this with some people and someone pointed out that he only rallies against something when it affects him personally. Before all this he was for the war and everything Bush was doing. It really makes him out to be quite a hypocrite but the left will most certainly take whatever influence he can offer them and not call him out on being a hypocrite. I think you're right that he will alienate many of his listeners but also pick a few news ones up. It might cancel each other out. think?

BrownTown
07-02-2004, 12:17 PM
WHOA! You got some balls there, throwin around that kinda money.

When I'm sure of something, I don't play! To prove it, fuck it, I'll put $1.07 on the line.


no i don't assume that all are stern fans, and i never said that

If they aren't his fans in the 1st place, why would half of them decide to vote because of howards ranting We can't assume that people are going to be inspired to vote by someone they're not listening to, can we?

And in the hypothetical situation that it was Opie and Anthony (instead of howard) that had this happening to them, at least half of this board (that doesn't vote) would get up and vote.

Outside of the few guys like High-Pitch Eric and Sal the Stockbroker, I'm thinking the average Stern fan isn't nearly as fanatical as the average person on this board is.


I just don't really believe that there's nearly as much swayable vote at Stern's disposal as you think.

<a href="http://www.sangwich.com">Listen To My Sounds</a>

bigbaldirish
07-02-2004, 12:41 PM
[quote]

Outside of the few guys like High-Pitch Eric and Sal the Stockbroker, I'm thinking the average Stern fan isn't nearly as fanatical as the average person on this board is.


I just don't really believe that there's nearly as much swayable vote at Stern's disposal as you think.



what are you kidding me? now that's just silly to say, about someone with NATIONAL syndication. there is a reason for this. there is no fanatics that listen to his show at all. not like this, no not at all.

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BrownTown
07-02-2004, 01:13 PM
what are you kidding me? now that's just silly to say, about someone with NATIONAL syndication. there is a reason for this. there is no fanatics that listen to his show at all. not like this, no not at all.

At what point did I say that there were no fanatics that listen to Stern's show? Hell, I even pointed out a few of them in my post. The point of my statement was not to question whether there were Stern fanatics, but to say that using the potential behavior of the members of this board as a barometer for what an average Stern fan would probably do for "their show" doesn't make sense. The average member of this board is a hardcore radiophile & fanatic that will go above and beyond the average for their Buddays. I don't think the average Stern fan is that fanatical. Are there some that are? Of course. There's tons of them out there, but that's not a real representation of what the average Stern fan is.

If you want to keep going back and forth with the pissing contest, I'm more than happy to oblige, but it's really not going to get us anywhere. I don't think that Stern is going to influence the election that much, you do. Until November, we won't know which one of us is right. Let's agree to disagree and be done with it.

<a href="http://www.sangwich.com">Listen To My Sounds</a>

FMJeff
07-02-2004, 10:56 PM
Please...any idiot who aligns his politicial allegiances with Howard Stern based on what he says isn't worth my time to discuss them...

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It made my heart sing.

curtoid
07-03-2004, 05:35 AM
The truth is I have no idea what pull Stern will actually have on this election, but I do know not to discount him.

I remember too well the massive book signings he did - signings that dwarfed what Clinton is getting now. I remember he did influence the race for Gov in both NY and NJ. And if you want recent proof that there really is no one else like him in the media, they had to remove the bulletin board at HowardStern.com because the servers were fried (as a stop gap fix, they are looking to have something in place that can accomidate no more than 10,000 visitors at a time while they work on a solution that will eventually allow hundreds of thousands of visitors to be on - more than likely using paid sponsors).

Unlike Rush, Hannity and their ilk, Howard's audience is not all of one-mind politically, so whatever opinion Stern expresses - it's not simply going to the converted. I suppose the same can be said for Imus, in that he reaches the left and right equally.

Then all you have to do is look at the country. We keep hearing how we are "split" down the middle, but the reality is we are quartered - not quite evenly, but close enough - half doesn't vote/half votes/leaning left/leaning right.

A lot has already been made about Howard reaching the growing number of registered voters who are "independent."A lot has also been made that half the country doesn't vote at all, and many of them are in Stern's demographic. Then there are the Republicans that have had enough and just need the nudge to break ranks - Howard is far from a peacenick pacifict liberal. If he can make the case to them, those Republicans that feel lied to but need the convincing that Kerry is Presiential, then that could be something.

And as shocking as it may be to those on the right, there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in this country - this is not a news flash. This has pretty much always been the case since FDR. If the left finally has someone in the media that energizes them on a daily basis, and get out those to be as loyal to their party as many GOPers are to theirs, then that could be something big.



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"Don't believe everything you read on message boards." - RB

This message was edited by curtoid on 7-3-04 @ 9:39 AM

Tenbatsuzen
07-03-2004, 06:21 AM
Considering how messed up the arbitron ratings are, the only "solid" numbers I base stern's influence on are book and movie sales.

Private Parts <b>ONLY MADE 40 MILLION DOLLARS AT THE HEIGHT OF STERN'S POPULARITY</b>.

Plus, a lot of people are getting turned off by Stern's bellyaching.

I don't think he'll have that much influence, because if you look at the facts, Stern's core audience are in states that vote Democratic ANYWAY. (New York, New Jersey, California) So it doesn't mean jack in an electoral college vote.



<center><img src="http://tenbatsuzen.homestead.com/files/psychosig03.jpg"></center>

bigbaldirish
07-03-2004, 12:57 PM
but he did get two republicans elected in the democratic states.

and btw my love for ron and fez is great but as far as i know, there is one message board full of ron and fez fanatics, there is several for howard. this is using google to look it up, so how accurate it is, is up to google it self. saying that this is the only board for "radiophiles" is wrong. the fact that you know callers, and wack pack members does not mean there aren't many more out there who don't call in, just like this show. using this board is a barometer is ok when i do it using correct metaphors, OnA, RnF. because if it would work here with them being "the victims" then a stern board full of people who love stern just like we love the buddays works as well.

and either way, nothing is going to change with the FCC unless a huge letter writing campaign NATIONALLY gets underway.

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This message was edited by bigbaldirish on 7-3-04 @ 5:11 PM

A.J.
07-03-2004, 01:25 PM
I remember he did influence the race for Gov in both NY and NJ.

True but he couldn't get D'Amato reelected.

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Recyclerz
07-04-2004, 12:54 AM
True but he couldn't get D'Amato reelected.


Dude, we had this guy for three terms!
http://www.balatatree.com/AF/images/senator_al.jpg


Like Curtoid indicated, no one knows how many votes Stern can deliver or flip. But I too remember seeing the lines outside the Rockefeller Center Barnes & Noble for his book signings and can safely say that I suspect most of the folks on that line were not carrying their frequent reader cards.

All I'm saying is that I'm welcoming all comers to my anti-George W. Bush bandwagon. I'm treating to coffee & doughnuts - climb aboard. :)


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sr71blackbird
07-04-2004, 05:06 AM
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Marist Mike
07-04-2004, 06:57 AM
Or perhaps he's just some schmuck on the radio.

Couldn't agree anymore BlakJeezis

I can't make a sig pic so I just have to stick with this stupid sentence.

Tenbatsuzen
07-04-2004, 07:23 AM
but he did get two republicans elected in the democratic states.

Doesn't matter. State elections are completely different than the Electoral College.

Do I have to re-hash this from 2000 again?

Each state, depending on it's size and population, has a certain number of votes in the electoral college.

Even if EVERY SINGLE PERSON IN NEW JERSEY AND NEW YORK voted for Kerry, he would still only get the same number of votes in the Electoral College if 55 percent voted for Kerry and 45 percent voted for Bush.

Remember, Gore won the POPULAR vote (how many people voted for him), but Bush is the one who won in the electoral college.



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bigbaldirish
07-04-2004, 08:17 AM
damn that pesky electoral college.

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curtoid
07-05-2004, 08:59 AM
Do I have to re-hash this from 2000 again?

To anticipate se7en..."Oh, THIS again...!"

...but Bush is the one who won in the electoral college.

With a little help...


(CNN - OpEd): So what did Nader accomplish for all his efforts? He didn't get his 5 percent. He didn't qualify the Green Party for federal funding. He didn't succeed in building the Green Party. He only succeeded in destroying the Democratic Party and, perhaps, denying Al Gore the White House. And, of course, if that happens, everything that Nader supposedly supports -- environmental protection, worker safety, consumer protection, a woman's right to choose -- would be systematically destroyed by a Bush administration. (http://www.cnn.com/2000/ALLPOLITICS/stories/11/08/press.column/)

http://us.news1.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/uc/20040630/lbo040701.gif

(CBS NEWS): The U.S. Commission on Civil Rights approved a report Friday that suggests blacks disproportionately had their ballots discounted in Florida's elections, leading to widespread violations of the Voting Rights Act. (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2001/06/08/politics/main295656.shtml)

(CNN) -- Voters confused by Palm Beach County's butterfly ballot cost Al Gore the presidency, The Palm Beach Post concluded Sunday. (http://www.cnn.com/2001/ALLPOLITICS/03/11/palmbeach.recount/index.html)

http://www.bartcop.com/jpg/11blame.jpg

Five months before the election, Florida Secretary of State Katherine Harris ordered the removal of 57,700 names from Florida's voter rolls on grounds that they were felons. Voter rolls contain the names of all eligible, registered voters. If you're not on the list, you don't get to vote...My office carefully went through the scrub list and discovered that at minimum, 90.2 percent of the people were completely innocent of any crime - except for being African American. We didn't have to guess about that, because next to each voter's name was their race. When I questioned Harris' office about the high percentage of African Americans on the scrub list, they responded, "Well, you know how many black people commit crimes."
(http://www.gregpalast.com/detail.cfm?artid=217&row=2)

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Some facts gleaned from an online opinion piece at www.votescam.com/treason.php: Under Florida statutory law, when the Florida Supreme Court finds that a challenge to the certified result of an election is justified, it has the power to "provide any relief appropriate under the circumstances" ( 102.168(8) of the Florida Election Code). On Friday, December 8, the Florida court, so finding, ordered a manual recount (authorized under  102.166(4)c of the Florida Election Code) of all disputed ballots (around 60,000) throughout the entire state. As a New York Times editorial reported, "The manual recount3 was progressing smoothly and swiftly Saturday...with new votes being recorded for both Vice President Al Gore and Governor George W. Bush...serving the core democratic principle that every legal vote should be counted" when, in midafternoon, the US Supreme Court "did a disservice to the nation's tradition of fair elections by calling a halt" to the recount. The stay (requested by Bush), the Times said, appeared "highly political." .Under Supreme Court rules, a stay is supposed to be granted to an applicant (here, Bush) only if he makes a substantial showing that in the absence of a stay, there is a likelihood of "irreparable harm" to him. As Justice John Paul Stevens wrote in opposing the stay, Bush "failed to carry the heavy burden" of showing a likelihood of irreparable harm if the recount continued. In other words, the Court never even had the legal right to grant the stay. "Counting every legally cast vote cannot constitute irreparable harm," Stevens said. "On the other hand, there is a danger that a stay may cause irreparable harm to the respondent (Gore and, more importantly, the public at large because of the risk that the entry of

Doctor Manhattan
07-05-2004, 04:30 PM
Please...any idiot who aligns his politicial allegiances with Howard Stern based on what he says isn't worth my time to discuss them...


I don't think this is just about some idiot. It's about a large group of those idiots. I think Stern will be able to get a few thousand votes cast, which could be enough if this election is close (of course if it's really close, our votes don't seem to matter)

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TheMojoPin
07-05-2004, 09:19 PM
That CNN editorial says Nader "destroyed" the Democratic party?

Uhm, yeah, sure.

They WEREN'T destroying themselves all throughout the 80's, and especially under the ultra-centrist Clinton government? Sure.

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BrownTown
07-06-2004, 06:52 AM
OK first and foremost, I apologize for jumping back a few days, but I had way to much going on at home this weekend to look at this board. Now that I'm back at "work", I've had some time catch up.

That said, seriously, bigbaldirish, you're fucking crazy. I appreciate the work you're putting in to try and spin what I'm posting, and all, but if you actually read what I wrote instead of trying to "Win" the argument you'd make more well-informed reponses. OK, where do I begin:

my love for ron and fez is great but as far as i know, there is one message board full of ron and fez fanatics, there is several for howard.

1. Who is comparing the popularity of Stern to the popularity of R & F?
2. What bearing does Stern being more popular than Ron & Fez have on how much political influence Stern has on his AVERAGE fans.

saying that this is the only board for "radiophiles" is wrong

When the fuck did I say that? Do you not know how to read? Try going through my sentences slowly, and maybe you'll get the point this time

The average member of this board is a hardcore radiophile & fanatic that will go above and beyond the average for their Buddays. I don't think the average Stern fan is that fanatical.

How you interpret that to mean that ronfez.net is the only board for radiophiles is beyond me.
My point is that the AVERAGE Stern fan is not a radiophile that will do anything for him. Stern's fanbase is huge. I'd bet that the vast majority of them are not nearly as obsessed with the inner workings of the radio business as members of this board are. Don't get it twisted, I'm not saying that there aren't radiophiles that are Stern fans. There are tons of them. Tons more than there are RnF or OnA fans (not that that has any bearing on the subject, but I want to make that clear since you seem to think that my previous posts have suggested otherwise), but that's not what his AVERAGE fan is.

using this board is a barometer is ok when i do it using correct metaphors,

Try doing that, and you'll have something. Use this board as a barometer for what posters on a Stern message board would do, not for what an AVERAGE Stern fan would do. Look around your office, or at faces when you walk down the street. Those are the average Stern fans. They're not people that are obsessed with the radio business like us.



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bigbaldirish
07-13-2004, 10:02 PM
browntown, you are entitled to your opinion and thats fine.
i read your posts, and answered based on the context i read.
i can't see your face, get your tone, so don't get bent outta shape about it. read the posts from the point of view of someone who thinks the opposite of you.

i see your points and i really don't discredit them, although i don't agree with them.

i don't really care about winning the argument, i like trying to impress my point of view on others, be it that it's disregarded, or taken into consideration.

i can't and won't try to change what you see. just pour some of what i see into it.

and yes i am fucking crazy. but that means nothing.

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