President Bloomberg?

[Bulldogcakes]

Bloomberg poised for third-party campaign (http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20070515-123142-3314r.htm)

New York Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg is prepared to spend an unprecedented $1 billion of his own $5.5 billion personal fortune for a third-party presidential campaign, personal friends of the mayor tell The Washington Times.


The mayor has told close associates he will make a third-party run if he thinks he can influence the national debate and has said he will spend up to $1 billion. Earlier, he told friends he would make a run only if he thought he could win a plurality in a three-way race and would spend $500 million -- or less than 10 percent of his personal fortune.
A $1 billion campaign budget would wipe out many of the common obstacles faced by third-party candidates seeking the White House.
"Bloomberg is H. Ross Perot on steroids," said former Federal Election Commission Chairman Michael Toner. "He could turn the political landscape of this election upside down, spend as much money as he wanted and proceed directly to the general election. He would have resources to hire an army of petition-gatherers in those states where thousands of petitions are required to qualify a third-party presidential candidate to be on the ballot."
Senior Republican officials -- including those supporting declared Republican presidential nomination contenders -- and several top Democrats told The Times they take the possibility of a Bloomberg candidacy as a serious threat in November 2008.

If he does run, You can kiss the Republican nominee goodbye. Its already a weak field, the 2 waiting in the wings to save the party (Newt/Thompson) aren't a big improvement at the ballot box.
Hillary will be president if this happens IMO. Hillary is one of those polarizing politicians who 40% will walk through a foot of snow to vote for, and 40% will do the same to vote against. She'll keep her base, and win easily. With Republicans trying to defend an unpopular war and Bloombergs $$, it could be a 1912 scenario where the Republicans actually finish 3rd.

[Fat_Sunny]

Fat's Not Sure He Agrees With Your Assessment. The Republicans Most At Risk Of Either Staying Home Or Deserting, Are The Right Wing. If McCain Is The Candidate, NONE Of These People Are Going To Vote For Bloomberg, As He Is More Liberal Than McCain, And Much More "Big Brotherish" (Smoking + TransFat Ban = In Your Face Government That Republicans Hate).

Fat Thinks That The Bloomberg Campaign Is A Non-Starter, And Will Have Close To Zero Impact On The Race.

Now Put An "America First Right-Wing Populist" On A Third Party Ticket, And Then It Would Have A Big Impact. Or Bob Impact. Take Your Pick.

[Bulldogcakes]

I thought the same thing when Bloomberg ran for mayor. Here's the biggest factor, Sunny.

has said he will spend up to $1 billion

In the "mother's milk" of politics, Bloomberg owns the whole damn farm. NO ONE will be spending anything close, the other 2 combined wont come close to matching him. To put it in context, Bush spent a total of around 350 million in 2004, Kerry about 310 million.

Its the equivilent of one guy fighting with a bazooka and the other two fighting with rifles. He could outspend both of them and STILL have 350 mil leftover. Its a serious candidacy.

[badorties]

Fat's Not Sure He Agrees With Your Assessment. The Republicans Most At Risk Of Either Staying Home Or Deserting, Are The Right Wing. If McCain Is The Candidate, NONE Of These People Are Going To Vote For Bloomberg, As He Is More Liberal Than McCain, And Much More "Big Brotherish" (Smoking + TransFat Ban = In Your Face Government That Republicans Hate).

Fat Thinks That The Bloomberg Campaign Is A Non-Starter, And Will Have Close To Zero Impact On The Race.

Now Put An "America First Right-Wing Populist" On A Third Party Ticket, And Then It Would Have A Big Impact. Or Bob Impact. Take Your Pick.

of the current field, he's is by far the only candidate that i'd vote for, and even may volunteer for ...

he's not afraid to make unpopular decisions, and has a general 'i don't give a fuck' attitiude that's incredibly refreshing

but he's a short / mildy unattractive / single / new england jew that probably doesn't stand a chance

[epo]

Fat's Not Sure He Agrees With Your Assessment. The Republicans Most At Risk Of Either Staying Home Or Deserting, Are The Right Wing. If McCain Is The Candidate, NONE Of These People Are Going To Vote For Bloomberg, As He Is More Liberal Than McCain, And Much More "Big Brotherish" (Smoking + TransFat Ban = In Your Face Government That Republicans Hate).

Fat Thinks That The Bloomberg Campaign Is A Non-Starter, And Will Have Close To Zero Impact On The Race.

Now Put An "America First Right-Wing Populist" On A Third Party Ticket, And Then It Would Have A Big Impact. Or Bob Impact. Take Your Pick.

EPO seriously thinks Fat is overestimating the drawing power of the John McCain model 2008. John McCain, model 2000 was a way different story.

Look at McCain & there is no way in hell that the Democratic Party (especially Clinton) isn't going to brand McCain, model 2008 as a status quo Republican who likes the current status quo.

McCain is probably among the most vulnerable of the Republicans to a serious third-party candidate.

[badmonkey]

Bloomberg visits Mexico to see their anti-poverty program (http://www.mikebloomberg.com/en/issues/reducing_poverty/mayor_michael_bloomberg_and_delegation_visit_mexic os_oportunidades_program)

I don't see how I could ever vote for a guy that goes to a 3rd world country to learn how to fight poverty in NY city. Keep an eye out for the govt produced dvd showing New Yorkers how to jump the Canadian border and blend in.

Badmonkey

[furie]

Bloomberg poised for third-party campaign (http://www.washingtontimes.com/national/20070515-123142-3314r.htm)



If he does run, You can kiss the Republican nominee goodbye. Its already a weak field, the 2 waiting in the wings to save the party (Newt/Thompson) aren't a big improvement at the ballot box.
Hillary will be president if this happens IMO. Hillary is one of those polarizing politicians who 40% will walk through a foot of snow to vote for, and 40% will do the same to vote against. She'll keep her base, and win easily. With Republicans trying to defend an unpopular war and Bloombergs $$, it could be a 1912 scenario where the Republicans actually finish 3rd.

Bloomberg is not a republican. he is a liberal democrat that ran as a republian because that side of the field was wide open in 2001 and was a quicker route to mayor, than having to fight off more than 6 other democrats in the primaries.

Bloomberg would draw more from the democrats than the republicans in he went independent.

[HBox]

Bloomberg is not a republican. he is a liberal democrat that ran as a republian because that side of the field was wide open in 2001 and was a quicker route to mayor, than having to fight off more than 6 other democrats in the primaries.

Bloomberg would draw more from the democrats than the republicans in he went independent.

Absolutely. Bloomberg could only be considered a Republican in a few major cities. In the rest of the country he is a Democrat, and not even a centrist one.

But he's certainly someone I'd consider. But despite his record in NYC I still have no idea what he stands for on some major issues.

[furie]

i'd certainly consider bloomberg as an independent. I tend to vote independent in national elections and he's done a fine job with NYC.

[Bulldogcakes]

Bloomberg is not a republican. he is a liberal democrat that ran as a republian because that side of the field was wide open in 2001 and was a quicker route to mayor, than having to fight off more than 6 other democrats in the primaries.

Bloomberg would draw more from the democrats than the republicans in he went independent.

I dont think so. The Dems have 2 strong candidates to choose from, the Republicans have a weak field of around 4 serious candidates and 2 wild cards. It will be hard for the Republicans to unite around any of the current field, or for any nominee to run on Bush's track record. Hillary's base is solid, so I think Bloomberg will draw much more from the anti-Hillary vote than he would an anti Bush vote. Plus, Bush isn't running.
Its also not about his politics, Bloomberg's a relative unknown nationally so he will be able to run on his NYC record, which is moderate. And has the cash to define himself (and his opponents) as he pleases.

[furie]

Its also not about his politics,

you're suggesting that a political race isn't about politics?!?
this is ALL about politics! hell, how many times do we have to hear that giuliani is pro choice?

republicans will shy away from bloomberg based on his political views more than democrats will because historically he has supported them.

[Bulldogcakes]

you're suggesting that a political race isn't about politics?!?

No, I'm saying its not ALL about politics, especially at this early stage. Right now, its much more about money, the candidates with the most money almost always win. The whole reason why politicians go around publicizing their political positions is for the purpose of raising money. Bloomberg starts out with more than either party's candidate can dream of raising.

And again, he has the cash to define himself however he wants to when it gets down to campaigning, and the amount of cash gives him a huge edge in making it stick.

[BeerBandit]

I've said it before, the position of President is an Executive, a businessman. Bloomberg is a perfect candidate. He's a well-proven businessman, and a proven Mayor of a major city. While all of the other candidates are stumping on the platform of "I'm not George W. Bush", Bloomberg would be a refreshing face. Let the lawyers, make and debate the laws. Let an true executive run the country.

[WRESTLINGFAN]

He might have a difficult time getting the nomination, People in the midwest and south probably wont vote for a Jew.

[furie]

He might have a difficult time getting the nomination, People in the midwest and south probably wont vote for a Jew.


what nomination? he'd be running as an independent.

[Fat_Sunny]

Originally Posted by WRESTLINGFAN
He might have a difficult time getting the nomination, People in the midwest and south probably wont vote for a Jew.

WrestlingFan Could Have Said This, Ad It Would Be True:


He Might Have A Difficult Time Getting Any Votes In The General Election, As No Blacks Will Vote For A Jew, And No Whites Outside Of New York, Florida, And New Jersey Will Vote For A Jew.


Unfortunately, The Above Statement Would Be Pretty Close To Accurate.

[pennington]

I think he would be a pretty good President. He would be good negotiating dealing with Congress and other nations and he's fiscally responsible. The problem is, we would have a national nanny concerning smoking, eating and drinking. He's also in favor of amnesty for illegial aliens and against a border fence.

But it's amazing what money can do. Corzine, who had no political experience, organization or name recognition spent like $40 million of his own money to win a Senate seat. Then, without distinguishing himself at all, spent another $30 million to win the Governorship. Imagine what someone (who's not a mental case like Ross Perot) could do with a billion dollars.

[WRESTLINGFAN]

what nomination? he'd be running as an independent.


I stand corrected If he runs as an Indy alot of people wont vote for him due to the fact that hes a Jew

[SatCam]

But it's amazing what money can do. Corzine, who had no political experience, organization or name recognition spent like $40 million of his own money to win a Senate seat. Then, without distinguishing himself at all, spent another $30 million to win the Governorship.

now look what happened to him

[Bulldogcakes]

NY Mayor Bloomberg weighs 2008 run (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080110/ap_po/bloomberg2008)

This is the same thing he did before jumping into the Mayor's race in 2001. I actually got one of these calls, since I'm a registered Republican and he ran as one. It was literally 45 mintes long. Unbeliveably detailed. But the fact that he's taken this step means that he's gauging his chances and looking at both if and how he can win. Since this isn't the first time this has been reported, I suspect he's already leaning towards running at this point. You don't become a billionaire by quitting if you have a some obstacles in the way. I think he'll jump in once the dust from the primaries begins to settle. I find his potential candidacy endlessly fascinating for a billion reasons. Lots of big questions about how it could affect the race.

Who could he draw more votes from? Everyone who has a candidate will tell you that he hurts theirs the most. I don't buy that, I think he would draw from both sides and bring out some who would otherwise stay home. Depends on the 2 candidates and the dynamics of the race who he hurts more. But both parties look to have major reservations about whoever they select, expect him to capitalize on those sentiments.

Can he win? Anyone with a billion dollar campaign budget has to be taken very seriously. He could also follow the Democratic strategy of recent years and focus mainly on the big coastal states with lots of electoral votes plus some of the swing states and more maverick independant states of the southwest (Arizona/Nevada). He may not even have to win necesarily. He could end up with enough electoral votes that neither of the 2 parties could reach the 270 necessary, making him the kingmaker for whoever he throws his support behind.

[Bulldogcakes]

http://www.veiled-chameleon.com/images/blogcontent/2004_election/electoral_map_july_6th.gif

Check this out, an electoral map of the US from July 6th, 2004

The total of the undecided swing states was 227 electoral votes. Thats more than the Republican (161) or Democrat (150) candidates had at that point, and both candidates were in place at that point (Kerry selected Edwards as his running mate on July 6th). Interesting.

[SatCam]

but is America ready for a Jewish president?

[Bulldogcakes]

but is America ready for a Jewish president?

or a black one?

or a woman?

or a Mormon?

or one named "Huckabee"?

[scottinnj]

Of course he'll never win, but as with Perot, he's got the cash to make a big impression on the election in 2008.

So the question is:

Which party gets hurt the most? Republicans? Democrats?
Or will people smell a ruse strongly enough that he doesn't ruin it for one of the candidates, whoever that person is.

[K.C.]

Bloomberg will top out at 20-25% (probably closer to 20) if he runs.

The latest national voter registration party breakdown I saw was about:

40% Democrat
32% Republican
25% Independent


And i'll see if I can find it, but I remember reading a study there's generally only, at an absolute maximum, a 5-10% defection rate (of 100% as the total) in Republican voters and 10-15% in Democrats.

So for Bloomberg to legitimately have a shot to win, he would have to win almost all of the independent vote (unlikely), and siphon off about 10% from each party.

Independents already appear to be leaning heavily Democratic this year, and it's going to be very difficult to grab Democratic defectors considering they have what is considered a pretty strong candidate field this year.


The Republican side is a mess, but the party members generally fall in line after it's all said
and done (hence the lower defection rate). Bloomberg would have a shot to pick off more Republican voters against a guy like Huckabee, who's very socially conservative. But if McCain or Giuliani win, Bloomberg would be appealing to the voters (fiscal conservatives) who preferred the other two to begin with.


The billion dollars shouldn't be taken lightly, but most of it would be spent on putting together a grass roots network, setting up offices in each state, and so forth...all stuff that doesn't exist for Independent candidates that has been incorporated into DNC and RNC for years. Other than that, most of it will be tied up in TV time which only goes so far.

So Bloomberg has the money where he can legitimately run in all 50 states as an equal to the Democrat and Republican candidate...but he's still got an enormous issue in the fact that so much of the Democrat and Republican vote is locked up no matter who the candidate is. And I don't know what his hook would be to persuade them.

Especially, if you end up with a Clinton vs. McCain race...those are two fairly moderate candidates. It'd be even tougher for Bloomberg to squeeze up the middle.


I can't see him performing a whole lot stronger than Ross Perot did nationally...where he may differ from Perot is that Bloomberg has the potential to put both New York and New Jersey in play in terms of electoral votes...that could potentially help the Republicans since they're deep blue states.

[Grendel_Kahn]

I think he would be a pretty good President. He would be good negotiating dealing with Congress and other nations and he's fiscally responsible. The problem is, we would have a national nanny concerning smoking, eating and drinking. He's also in favor of amnesty for illegial aliens and against a border fence.

But it's amazing what money can do. Corzine, who had no political experience, organization or name recognition spent like $40 million of his own money to win a Senate seat. Then, without distinguishing himself at all, spent another $30 million to win the Governorship. Imagine what someone (who's not a mental case like Ross Perot) could do with a billion dollars.

What you are referring to are policies started by Mayor 9/11. Before 9/11 that is.