Let's hear your Iowa predictions

[epo]

Alright smart people, we've all talked a tremendous amount of bullshit about politics, let's see how much you know. Tell us your predictions for the Top 3 finishers in the Iowa Caucus this Thursday (January 3rd). Here are mine:

Republican
1. Mike Huckabee
2. John McCain
3. Mitt Romney

Democratic
1. Barack Obama
2. John Edwards
3. Hillary Clinton.

Alright fuckers....what are your guesses?

[earthbrown]

Obama and Romney, cant predict all 3.

Ron Paul will have a surprising showing, and Hillary is a cunt.


K

[thejives]

heh...

I like epo's predictions, but it sounds like wishful thinking.

Here's mine:

1. Clinton
2. Edwards
3. Obama

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain

Does the person who correctly guesses get a prize?

[Yerdaddy]

Romney
Huckabee
McCain

Clinton
Obama
PiMB
Edwards

[epo]

heh...

Does the person who correctly guesses get a prize?

Not that I know of.....but it would be fun to run a pool. It's too bad yahoo doesn't set something like that up.

[thejives]

Romney
Huckabee
McCain

Clinton
Obama
PiMB
Edwards

A Democrat?
I thought PiMB was running for the Golden Shower Party's nomination?

[scottinnj]

Alright smart people, we've all talked a tremendous amount of bullshit about politics, let's see how much you know. Tell us your predictions for the Top 3 finishers in the Iowa Caucus this Thursday (January 3rd). Here are mine:

Republican
1. Mike Huckabee
2. John McCain
3. Mitt Romney

Democratic
1. Barack Obama
2. John Edwards
3. Hillary Clinton.

Alright fuckers....what are your guesses?


Well, I'm afraid I have to agree with you, and that is a shame, except for Barack winning. I still like this guy. Here is my wish list for both sides:

Republican
1. John McCain :thumbup:
2. Rudy Guiliani
3. Write in candidate

Democrat
1. Barack Obama :thumbup:
2. Hillary Clinton
3. Bill Richardson

[scottinnj]

Romney
Huckabee
McCain


epo/scottinnj
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
PiMB/FIFB



Fixed it for ya!

[Death Metal Moe]

My prediction is 6 hours after the Caucus is over everyone will scramble out of Iowa and no one will fucking go back for another 4 years.

[scottinnj]

My prediction is 6 hours after the Caucus is over everyone will scramble out of Iowa and no one will fucking go back for another 4 years.

Everybody but Chris Matthews. He's stuck doing Hardball from Ottumwa Iowa with Gary Burghoff explaining the exit poll data..........


"Senator Biden's campaign was shot down over the City of Des Moines. It spun in. There were no survivors."

[Bulldogcakes]

For some context, the Iowa caucus is kinda hit or miss. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus#Democrats)


Past Winners

January 19, 2004 - John Kerry (38%), John Edwards (32%), Howard Dean (18%), Richard Gephardt (11%) and Dennis Kucinich (1%)
January 24, 2000 - Al Gore (63%), Bill Bradley (37%)
February 12, 1996 - Bill Clinton* (unopposed)
February 10, 1992 - Tom Harkin (76%), "Uncommitted" (12%), Paul Tsongas (4%), Bill Clinton* (3%), Bob Kerrey (2%) and Jerry Brown (2%)
February 8, 1988 - Richard Gephardt (31%), Paul Simon (27%), Michael Dukakis (22%) and Bruce Babbitt (6%)

About a 50/50 chance it will tell us the eventual nominee.

[DiabloSammich]

Iowa Hawkeyes 76, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 72


Lock it up.


Wait, what?

[Yerdaddy]

Republican
1. Mike Huckabee
2. John McCain
3. Mitt Romney

Democratic
1. Barack Obama
2. John Edwards
3. Hillary Clinton.

heh...

I like epo's predictions, but it sounds like wishful thinking.

Here's mine:

1. Clinton
2. Edwards
3. Obama

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. McCain

Does the person who correctly guesses get a prize?

Romney
Huckabee
McCain

Clinton
Obama
PiMB
Edwards

How is it the first three of us here forgot Giuliani even existed? Is he running a stealth campaign? Did he decide to stop talking about 9-11 and he just wound to a stop singing "Daisy... Daisy..."?

[Dash77]

Can someone explain to me how come Iowa only becomes relevant every 4 years ? Why is there primary so important ?

[SatCam]

Republican
1. Ron Paul
2. Ron Paul
3. Ron Paul

Democratic
1. Ron Paul
2. Ron Paul
3. Ron Paul




:banning:

[badmonkey]

Republican
1. Ron Paul
2. Ron Paul
3. Ron Paul

Democratic
1. Ron Paul
2. Ron Paul
3. Ron Paul




:banning:

Oh if we're gonna do that, I'd really like to see a Ron Paul vs Dennis Kucinich Steel Cage Loser Leaves Iowa match instead but I REALLY don't wanna have to wait til the main event for it.

[epo]

How is it the first three of us here forgot Giuliani even existed? Is he running a stealth campaign? Did he decide to stop talking about 9-11 and he just wound to a stop singing "Daisy... Daisy..."?

Yerdaddy, I think Guiliani isn't going to do well in Iowa. His social views are a little too liberal for Iowa republicans and honestly he seems to be concentrating on Florida right now.

I must admit it wouldn't shock me if he did well as the state seems pretty open on both sides, but I just don't see it right now.

[pennington]

I predict the losers will say they did better than expected. The winners will say the voters agreed with their message.

[keithy_19]

I predict the losers will say they did better than expected. The winners will say the voters agreed with their message.

I predict the losers will say, 'oh fuck we lost' and it will be off camera but it willa ctually be on camera and they say 'fucking camera's' and it will be awkward but cool.

And the winners will shit gold and then go to the hospital because shitting gold is painful and unatural. Less you're Midus.

[SatCam]

I predict the losers will say, 'oh fuck we lost' and it will be off camera but it willa ctually be on camera and they say 'fucking camera's' and it will be awkward but cool.

And the winners will shit gold and then go to the hospital because shitting gold is painful and unatural. Less you're Midus.

considering pure gold is fairly soft i doubt it would be as bad as any shit ive taken in the past 4 months

[Dan 'Hampton]

http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:vtLwp53_2HkK8M:http://soilcrop.tamu.edu/photogallery/cornsorghum%2B/images/corn%2520ears.jpg
http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:LmR0a_Kx8K9ZEM:http://www.mfe.govt.nz/issues/air/images/pigs.jpg

[foodcourtdruide]

"You want a prediction about the weather, you're asking the wrong Phil. I'll give you a winter prediction: It's gonna be cold, it's gonna be grey, and it's gonna last you for the rest of your life. "

[Zorro]

I keep thinking we're the rubes at the carnival. The Clinton camp has been steadily lowering expectations so no matter where Hillary finishes she's the "comeback kid". We'll all be amazed at how well she did... With her money and organization she'll be the Democratic nominee. All this BS of her losing is fodder for the masses and the TV talking heads.

[Axem Red]

Republicans:
Huckabee
Romney
Giuliani

Democrats:
Obama
Clinton
Edwards

Looking forward to the Obama/Kucinich ticket.

[K.C.]

Republicans
1. Mike Huckabee (Until proven otherwise, I'm going to go with the notion that Protestants generally beat Mormons)
2. Mitt Romney
3. John McCain
4. Ron Paul
5. Fred Thompson
6. Ray Kinsella (write-in)
7. Mark Prior (he spent enough time there in Triple A last season)
.
.
.
.
.
53. Rudy Giuliani


Democrats
1. John Edwards (he's campaigned for the last four years, he's surged a bit in the last two weeks, he's most people's second choice (a very important thing in the caucus), and he's involved in the statistical dead heat. Oh, and he has most of the organized labor. They'll slash some tires if they have to)
2. Barack Obama (it'll be a strong second place finish...within 2%)
3. Hillary Clinton (she takes the beating, but she's got money, so she'll bounce back)
4. Joe Biden
5. Bill Richardson
6. Dennis Kucinich
7. Chris Dodd

[Fezticle98]

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards


1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Paul

[K.C.]

The last Zogby poll of the caucuses:

Obama - 31%
Edwards - 27%
Clinton - 24%
Richardson - 7%
Biden - 5%
Dodd - 1%
Kucinich >1%

That leaves about 4-5% undecided.


Margin of error was 3.3%, so Obama's probably got a very slight, but definitive lead on Edwards at worst. Actually, the Zogby numbers seem to be right on, at least in terms of Obama's numbers, since he's steadily polling 31-32% in Iowa polls.

It's very much a race between Obama and Edwards, though. Between the margin of error, the undecideds, the second-choice numbers (Edwards does well there and could draw a lot from the second-tier candidates), and the fact that Iowa is completely turnout driven, it should be pretty close.

The only thing we can kind of definitively tell is that Hillary seems almost a lock to not win. I don't feel comfortable saying that about anyone in that family, but that's what the last week indicates.

She's fading, and her base doesn't suggest she'll get an unexpectedly high turnout to carry her through. Plus, she's very low in the second choice numbers.


Should be interesting tonight. I think Hillary's poised to take a huge hit. The other thing of interest is that the media is starting to jump on the notion that Biden could have a slightly surprising swell in his numbers, judging from the crowds he drew the last two weeks, and jump to around 15% (at best) to finish. Not sure I see that.

If I had to predict the totals:

Edwards: 34%
Obama: 32%
Clinton: 23%
Biden: 7%
Richardson: 3%
Kucinich: >1%
Dodd: >1%


Edwards holds on at least through South Carolina, Obama looks strong and is poised for New Hampshire, where it'll most likely be a Hillary vs. Obama race (Edwards never polls well there), Hillary tries to stop the bleeding in New Hampshire, and if she loses there, withdraws to Super Tuesday to try and spend Obama and Edwards into the ground in one final stand.

As for the rest, Biden will hold on through South Carolina and withdraw when he fails to win there. Richardson probably folds after New Hampshire. Kucinich will stay in all the way even though he has no shot, and Dodd will probably pack it up after tonight.

One thing of interest to watch will be the endorsements from candidates as they drop out. Biden and Richardson will probably both endorse Hillary which will help her cause.

[epo]

Richardson to ask his supporters to back Obama if they are not viable.

Link to story here. (http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzBlYWQ2OTc3N2U0ZjA0NWU1ZWRjYTAyZTkwMDM5OWQ=) I first heard the news on POTUS (XM130).

Holy crap....that's big. I would've thought he was a Clinton person.

[K.C.]

Richardson to ask his supporters to back Obama if they are not viable.

Link to story here. (http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzBlYWQ2OTc3N2U0ZjA0NWU1ZWRjYTAyZTkwMDM5OWQ=) I first heard the news on POTUS (XM130).

Holy crap....that's big. I would've thought he was a Clinton person.

It's not true...that rumor broke earlier this morning and Richardson's campaign already refuted it.

The fact that I've seen it about a dozen different places this morning, though, suggests whether it's real or not may not matter...the damage may be done.




The biggest news I've heard today is that Ron Paul is making gains and is deadlocked with McCain and Thompson for third on the Republican side.

If he swings third, with the money he has, he's at least going to make life difficult for some of the Republicans in the next few weeks, if not be a factor. I definitely think he's the guy that could do the hatchet job that destroys Giuliani once and for all and allows the winner of Huckabee-Romney-McCain to walk right on through.

[Cleophus James]

I just need to post in the only thread about Iowa.

All I know is it was -2 (-18 wind chill) when I left for work). Fuck caucus.

[Freakshow]

1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards


1. Romney
2. Huckabee
Paul 3%

Fixed it for ya.

[K.C.]

Fixed it for ya.

Paul's got a shot for a decent showing tonight, and in New Hampshire.

After that, that's when he'll start pulling the 3%s



At any rate, after tonight, Dodd and one out of Biden/Richardson will probably drop out. Kucinich and Gravel will be pushed out if they don't officially drop.

For the Republicans, Huckabee and Romney are in to stay through South Carolina, unless Huckabee finished 3rd or lower tonight. McCain is in through South Carolina at least, and Giuliani is in until Super Tuesday.

The Republicans will lose Thompson and Hunter after Iowa. Paul will stay in until his money runs out. He could bolt at some point and take up a third party nomination to run in the general election.


So after tonight:
Dems
Obama
Clinton
Edwards
Biden or Richardson (but not both)

Republicans
Huckabee
Romney
McCain
Giuliani
Paul (If FOX really bans him from the New Hampshire debate, though, that'll hurt him a lot).

[Furtherman]

I predict disappointment across the board.

[thejives]

I predict a riot.http://www.vh1.com/sitewide/promoimages/artists/k/kaiser_chiefs/vspot/i_predict_a_riot/320x240.jpg

[DiabloSammich]

I'll admit I'm guilty of drinking the Delaware Kool-Aid from time to time, but why doesn't Biden get more love? Is he really that much of a tool?


By the way, in case you were wondering, Delaware Kool-Aid tastes a lot like New Jersey Kool-Aid.

Minus the ass aftertaste.

[Cleophus James]

I predict a riot.http://www.vh1.com/sitewide/promoimages/artists/k/kaiser_chiefs/vspot/i_predict_a_riot/320x240.jpg
Not possible, closest thing to a riot here is when there is no green bean casserole at the pot luck. (except college)

[K.C.]

I'll admit I'm guilty of drinking the Delaware Kool-Aid from time to time, but why doesn't Biden get more love? Is he really that much of a tool?


By the way, in case you were wondering, Delaware Kool-Aid tastes a lot like New Jersey Kool-Aid.

Minus the ass aftertaste.

In short order:

1) He's too old
2) He's too moderate for the democratic primaries
3) He has a complete inability to condense what he wants to say down to a sound byte
4) Continuing from #3, he's not good at giving stock speeches, because he's way too detail oriented in what he wants to say (You think that'd be a good thing, but not when dealing with the masses).
5) He's prone to the occasional blowup and curses a lot during his speeches.

I have a kind of love/hate affair with the guy. I'm not a big fan of all of his policies, but he's a pretty fun guy to watch.

I'm surprised he hasn't gotten much of a look, but the Democratic Primary became mostly about getting out of Iraq...Biden's more of a 'we need to manage this to a successful end' type guy, which Democrats aren't listening to.

Where Biden differs from McCain is that McCain believes the same thing, but believes we'll win the peace through military force. Biden's version of 'managing to a successful end' is basically convincing the Iraqis they're never going to live in harmony and producing some sort of three state solution.

[K.C.]

I predict disappointment across the board.

Usually the case...I promised myself I wouldn't get sucked back in after '04, and yet here I am.

[K.C.]

My favorite story of the day is this one (http://www.breitbart.com/print.php?id=D8TUGCM00&show_article=1)


Awwww....someone's all tuckered out from doing President stuff. What a dick.

[epo]

I'll admit I'm guilty of drinking the Delaware Kool-Aid from time to time, but why doesn't Biden get more love? Is he really that much of a tool?


By the way, in case you were wondering, Delaware Kool-Aid tastes a lot like New Jersey Kool-Aid.

Minus the ass aftertaste.

I agree with K.C.'s take on Biden. He definitely is too long-winded to pull off good sound bytes in today's media world.

Biden also doesn't seem to play well in the Midwest as he comes off as too much of a show pony. It's too slick for the rubes and Biden definitely comes across as an east coast intellectual.

Personally, I have always liked Biden alot and was quite sure that if Kerry had won in 04' that he would have been his Secretary of State.

[Fezticle98]

Paul's got a shot for a decent showing tonight, and in New Hampshire.

After that, that's when he'll start pulling the 3%s



I think Paul can do well in South Carolina. Of course that is predicated on a strong showing in Iowa and N.H. (10-12%). It could really shake things up when old Fred Thompson drops out, McCain is possibly done-in without a win in N.H., and Rudy continues to retreat further.

[Fezticle98]

My favorite story of the day is this one (http://www.breitbart.com/print.php?id=D8TUGCM00&show_article=1)


Awwww....someone's all tuckered out from doing President stuff. What a dick.

My favorite story was Richardson at 530 am on CNN calling Musharaf a terrorist. He was called on it and said "I'm not calling him a terrorist. It's 530 in the morning. I'm calling him a tyrant."

[NortonRules]

For some context, the Iowa caucus is kinda hit or miss. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus#Democrats)



About a 50/50 chance it will tell us the eventual nominee.

Wow. Paul Simon. Was this on the heels of Graceland?

[NortonRules]

Wow. Paul Simon. Was this on the heels of Graceland?

I quoted the wrong post. shit.

[DiabloSammich]

I agree with K.C.'s take on Biden. He definitely is too long-winded to pull off good sound bytes in today's media world.

Biden also doesn't seem to play well in the Midwest as he comes off as too much of a show pony. It's too slick for the rubes and Biden definitely comes across as an east coast intellectual.

Personally, I have always liked Biden alot and was quite sure that if Kerry had won in 04' that he would have been his Secretary of State.



That's a shame that a main negative is the fact that he can't talk in sound bytes.

(sigh) I guess that's the media world we live in. It's a shame, because when you talk to him, and I have, he just seems more like a human being than your typical candidate. And that's what bites him in the ass.

[K.C.]

I think Paul can do well in South Carolina. Of course that is predicated on a strong showing in Iowa and N.H. (10-12%). It could really shake things up when old Fred Thompson drops out, McCain is possibly done-in without a win in N.H., and Rudy continues to retreat further.

Thompson's the key to this thing for McCain. McCain needs him out of this race after tonight, almost as badly as he needs Huckabee to thrash Romney tonight, because almost all of Thompson's support will go to McCain, and Thompson will actively campaign for him once he's out.

As far as scenarios go, a Huckabee win tonight is a win for McCain provided McCain finished 3rd, because a Huckabee win hurts Romney going forward, which gives McCain more of an in in New Hampshire.

If Romney wins convincingly, and Thompson pulls out 3rd over McCain, then McCain is screwed all over again, and Thompson actually gets a nice boost, because it'll hurt Huckabee in South Carolina (which would be Thompson's last stand if he survives tonight), and makes that a race all over again.

Paul could wreak havoc on this thing. If he really has a shot to finish 3rd, and does, that'll be one of the big stories of the night, because he'll have beaten McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani...all people who led nationally at one point.

It also means all of next week will focus on the fact that FOX News is barring Paul from their New Hampshire debate, because they're trying to kill his campaign, which will just build sympathy, and more support for him.

[epo]

That's a shame that a main negative is the fact that he can't talk in sound bytes.

(sigh) I guess that's the media world we live in. It's a shame, because when you talk to him, and I have, he just seems more like a human being than your typical candidate. And that's what bites him in the ass.

Plus unfortunately for him, Biden has that 1988 Neal Kinnock speech baggage that keeps him from being taken too seriously. Which is honestly a shame.

[epo]

Usually the case...I promised myself I wouldn't get sucked back in after '04, and yet here I am.

That hook is deep.

[HBox]

It also means all of next week will focus on the fact that FOX News is barring Paul from their New Hampshire debate, because they're trying to kill his campaign, which will just build sympathy, and more support for him.

REALLY? I did not know that. This coming from an organization that took a hissy fit when most of the Democratic nominees dropped out of one of their debates.

I'm not surprised in the least.

[K.C.]

Thompson's the key to this thing for McCain. McCain needs him out of this race after tonight, almost as badly as he needs Huckabee to thrash Romney tonight, because almost all of Thompson's support will go to McCain, and Thompson will actively campaign for him once he's out.

As far as scenarios go, a Huckabee win tonight is a win for McCain provided McCain finished 3rd, because a Huckabee win hurts Romney going forward, which gives McCain more of an in in New Hampshire.

If Romney wins convincingly, and Thompson pulls out 3rd over McCain, then McCain is screwed all over again, and Thompson actually gets a nice boost, because it'll hurt Huckabee in South Carolina (which would be Thompson's last stand if he survives tonight), and makes that a race all over again.

Paul could wreak havoc on this thing. If he really has a shot to finish 3rd, and does, that'll be one of the big stories of the night, because he'll have beaten McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani...all people who led nationally at one point.

It also means all of next week will focus on the fact that FOX News is barring Paul from their New Hampshire debate, because they're trying to kill his campaign, which will just build sympathy, and more support for him.



And just to lay out Giuliani's best two scenarios:

-Huckabee wins tonight; Thompson finishes a high third
-McCain wins New Hampshire
-Thompson wins South Carolina

Romney's diffused and no one has momentum going into Super Tuesday.

This will also do for him:

-Huckabee wins tonight
-Romney wins New Hampshire
-McCain wins Michigan (unlikely if Romney wins new Hampshire, though)
-Huckabee wins South Carolina

Basically, for Giuliani to stay relevant, he has to hope no one strings together a bunch of victories and just rides the momentum. And if one guy HAS to win more than one state, it'd be best for him if it's Huckabee and not Romney or McCain.

[K.C.]

One final thing:

InsiderAdvantage released a poll this afternoon factoring the second choice votes in the Democratic caucus:

1. Obama 34%
2. Edwards 33%
3. Clinton 32%

Yikes.

:wallbash:

[scottinnj]

One final thing:

InsiderAdvantage released a poll this afternoon factoring the second choice votes in the Democratic caucus:

1. Obama 34%
2. Edwards 33%
3. Clinton 32%

Yikes.

:wallbash:

Why yikes? It's good to have Senator Clinton in the back. Go BARACK! :clap:

[DiabloSammich]

Why yikes? It's good to have Senator Clinton in the back. Go BARACK! :clap:


This is gonna make earthbrown very happy.

[epo]

MSNBC is talking about how the turnout is huge. They are claiming that independents, women and young people are all packing the house.

Break that down:

Independent (Edwards)
Women (Clinton)
Young People (Obama)

Ha! More indecision......

[scottinnj]

This is gonna make earthbrown very happy.

He's not here right now, he's giving Savage a reacharound.

I like Barack. I hope it an Obama-McCain showdown in November. Then it should be a clean fight, with lots of issues and very little mud slinging.

[K.C.]

Why yikes? It's good to have Senator Clinton in the back. Go BARACK! :clap:

Yikes, because if it really ends up that close, all three of these jackasses are going to claim victory, and the spin machine will be in full force.

I'd have probably voted for Edwards....Obama as a second choice.

The fact that almost 70% is aligned against Hillary is a good sign, in my book.

[Death Metal Moe]

He's not here right now, he's giving Savage a reacharound.

I like Barack. I hope it an Obama-McCain showdown in November. Then it should be a clean fight, with lots of issues and very little mud slinging.

http://i6.photobucket.com/albums/y245/njdmmoe/sarcasm.gif

[scottinnj]

You don't think so? I have high hopes for those two. I'm urging my Democrat freinds to go Obama, and I'm pulling the lever for McCain next month.

No sarcasm, I'm really that idealistic. Then my hopes will be dashed and I will curse them all out again.

But I'm hoping for the "Change" all of them are promising.

[epo]

MSNBC has the early Republican returns (25% reporting):

Huckabee - 35
Romney - 24
Thompson - 12
McCain - 11
Paul - 10

What a win for Huckabee if it holds...this really hurts Romney. But even more so...how about grandpa Fred! I thought he was dead a month ago.

[epo]

MSNBC is projecting your Iowa caucus winner......Barack Obama!

[scottinnj]

Fox News is declaring Huckabee the winner. They also said 60% of the Republicans who voted called themselves "evangelicals"

I'm an evangelical. I can't stand Huckabee. Just because he reads the King James Version Bible doesn't qualify my vote.

Yerdaddy is right. Republicans who vote in primaries are fucking hayseeds. I hope McCain doesn't drop out.

[scottinnj]

MSNBC is projecting your Iowa caucus winner......Barack Obama!

:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

[K.C.]

MSNBC is projecting your Iowa caucus winner......Barack Obama!

The question is by how much, though....if his margin of victory widens to 6-7%, it's a huge win.

The Edwards/Hillary race is huge, too....if Edwards finishes second, Hillary's in a world of hurt.

[scottinnj]

if Edwards finishes second, Hillary's in a world of hurt.


:clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap: :clap:

[scottinnj]

The question is by how much, though....if his margin of victory widens to 6-7%, it's a huge win.


Fox News has the margin so far at 5%

[epo]

The question is by how much, though....if his margin of victory widens to 6-7%, it's a huge win.

The Edwards/Hillary race is huge, too....if Edwards finishes second, Hillary's in a world of hurt.

Totally agree and would like to add that whichever one finishes third is greatly damaged.

If Clinton finishes third, the story is that she faded to third.
If Edwards finishes third, his story is that he's an also-ran.

Those couple of percentage points are going to be huge.

[epo]

84% reporting:

Obama - 37%
Edwards - 30%
Clinton - 30%

That is a giant win for Obama. I haven't been this excited about politics since 1992.

[K.C.]

Totally agree and would like to add that whichever one finishes third is greatly damaged.

If Clinton finishes third, the story is that she faded to third.
If Edwards finishes third, his story is that he's an also-ran.

Those couple of percentage points are going to be huge.

Well Obama's going to have the target on his back over the next couple weeks.

It's a good victory, but it's probably going to get ugly very quickly. Edwards has been attacking him like crazy down the stretch in Iowa. That's only going to get more vicious.

And the Clintons are the masters of tearing down candidates.

It's kind of bad news if Edwards finishes second, in that regard, for Obama, because he's still viable, which means he's going to target Obama as the new front-runner.

Plus, you have to figure Biden, Richardson, Dodd, Kucinich, and Gravel are all gone after tonight.

It's a three person race...New Hampshire is going to be very interesting.

[scottinnj]

Obama beating Edwards by 7%|

Edwards and Clinton seem to be tied for second.

Amazing. I love Juan Williams' take on it.

[scottinnj]

84% reporting:

I haven't been this excited about politics since 1992.

No wonder we didn't show. You're heart just ain't in it bro.

[K.C.]

About 100 precincts left to report:

Obama - 37.05%
Edwards - 30.09%
Clinton - 29.68%

[epo]

I think an amazing number in all of this is that the Democratic caucuses reported had twice as many voters in Iowa than did the Republican caucuses. What a turnout rate for the Dems.

[K.C.]

Hannity is literally glowing over Hillary's beatdown.


And Andrea Mitchell, MSNBC's Clinton headquarters reporter, described it as a wake.

[scottinnj]

Hannity is literally glowing over Hillary's beatdown.


And Andrea Mitchell, MSNBC's Clinton headquarters reporter, described it as a wake.

Ugh, I hate agreeing with those two. I switched off when Hannity came on, and missed Mitchell's comment.

[K.C.]

Backbone....that's going to be Edwards' pitch going forward.

He's going to tie himself to Obama, with the two of them being the anti-Clintons, but try to establish himself as tougher.

If he can raise some money, he'll have a shot...if not...this is probably the last people see of him.

[epo]

Backbone....that's going to be Edwards' pitch going forward.

He's going to tie himself to Obama, with the two of them being the anti-Clintons, but try to establish himself as tougher.

If he can raise some money, he'll have a shot...if not...this is probably the last people see of him.

Notice how he jumped on the "change" bandwagon tonight after the pundits declared Barack the "change candidate". This really puts Hillary in an awkward spot without a true message.

[scottinnj]

Her first sentence had the word "change" in it. Ironically with Bill and Secretary Albright standing behind her.

[K.C.]

Notice how he jumped on the "change" bandwagon tonight after the pundits declared Barack the "change candidate". This really puts Hillary in an awkward spot without a true message.

To be fair, Edwards has been pounding the populist, change America message into the ground for years.

He's only recently started getting recognition about it because he's been getting so pissed off in tone in his speeches.

Edwards' game at this point is money. His best hope is that people flee Hillary's ship and jump on him rather than Obama.



Listening to Hillary's speech, it sounds like her message is going to shift mostly to 'I favor change too, but I'm more electable.'

Not sure how that's going to go over.


P.S: FOX cut out halfway through Hillary's speech...at least they're consistent in their commitment to hating her.



HAHAHA...now she's taking a shot at the Caucuses because people can't absentee vote.

[scottinnj]

P.S: FOX cut out halfway through Hillary's speech...at least they're consistent in their commitment to hating her.





That's because she shorted out their board.

Ack! Ack! Ack! ACKACKACKACKACK ACK ACK!

[K.C.]

Mike Huckabee's secret to success:


http://thesift.atlblogs.com/images/chuck-norris-002.jpg

[epo]

Listening to Hillary's speech, it sounds like her message is going to shift mostly to 'I favor change too, but I'm more electable.'

Not sure how that's going to go over.



I would guess not well. She really tried to work that angle a couple of weeks ago and it didn't still at all. After 20 years of Bush-Clinton-Bush...I'm guessing the name Clinton doesn't help when you are trying to sell change.

[scottinnj]

Dude, check out the NY Times (http://www.nytimes.com/)front page.

Headline:


"Obama and Huckabee Triumph in Iowa."

Picture:


http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/03/us/03caucus-10-511.jpg


I wonder who they're pulling for in the long run?

[scottinnj]

HOW THE FUCK IS DEAD FRED IN THIRD OVER JOHN MCCAIN?

I swear to God, I want to fly to Des Moines and slap every fellow Republican up there.

DUMB DOUCHES!

[IMSlacker]

Dude, check out the NY Times (http://www.nytimes.com/)front page.

Headline:


"Obama and Huckabee Triumph in Iowa."

Picture:


http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/01/03/us/03caucus-10-511.jpg


I wonder who they're pulling for in the long run?

Well, Obama hasn't given his speech yet, and Huckabee just wrapped his up, and Hillary is a New York senator, so the picture isn't that ridiculous.

[BoondockSaint]

Mike Huckabee's secret to success:


http://thesift.atlblogs.com/images/chuck-norris-002.jpg


I saw that. Why was he there?

[midwestjeff]

HOW THE FUCK IS DEAD FRED IN THIRD OVER JOHN MCCAIN?

I swear to God, I want to fly to Des Moines and slap every fellow Republican up there.

DUMB DOUCHES!

Have you looked at the soil around Des Moines? You can't build on it, you can't grow anything in it. The government says it's due to poor farming but I know what's really going on, Stuart. I know it's the queers. They're in it with the aliens. They're building landing strips for gay Martians. I swear to god. You know what Stuart? I like you. You're not like the other people here in the trailer park.

hmmm. I think this may belong in the what my avatar says about me thread.

[epo]

Have you looked at the soil around Des Moines? You can't build on it, you can't grow anything in it. The government says it's due to poor farming but I know what's really going on, Stuart. I know it's the queers. They're in it with the aliens. They're building landing strips for gay Martians. I swear to god. You know what Stuart? I like you. You're not like the other people here in the trailer park.

hmmm. I think this may belong in the what my avatar says about me thread.

I love a good Dead Milkmen reference.

Kudos to you my friend.

[scottinnj]

SHHHHH! Obama's up! I'm Listening!

[Recyclerz]

Goddamn, this guy is good.

[scottinnj]

"I will not be the president who tells you what you want to hear, I'll be the president who tells you what you need to know"


:clap:

"I will be a president who harnesses the ingenuity of farmers and scientists and entrenpeneurs to free this country from the tyranny of oil, once and for all."


:clap: :clap: :clap:

[scottinnj]

This guy is talking about my America. I'm getting all misty-eyed.

OBAMA ROCKS!

[IMSlacker]

Goddamn, this guy is good.

Yeah. Wow, is Hillary done.

[epo]

Goddamn, this guy is good.

His oratory skills are on the level of Bobby Kennedy, except in a modern, midwestern tone.

[K.C.]

Huckabee - He'll try his hand in New Hampshire, and he'll get a boost there, but most likely he'll withdraw to Michigan and South Carolina. He has an outside shot in
Michigan, but absolutely needs South Carolina. The thing that helps him is that he should get a big boost in funding with this win. As for a New Hampshire goal, a third place
finish or better (which would mean he would beat Giuliani) would be a good showing.

Romney - It's New Hampshire or bust. If he salvages New Hampshire, he has a shot in Michigan and then can hold off until Super Tuesday. If he loses in New Hampshire, it's a complete freefall.

Thompson - He'll probably stay in the race with his third place finish in Iowa, participate in the New Hampshire debates, but focus all his resources in South Carolina. A win there and he has a shot. Anything less and he's finished.

McCain - He's got a good shot in New Hampshire now of toppling Romney. The wild card will be whether Huckabee gains overwhelming momentum and just rides it. My guess is no. If McCain topples Romney in New Hampshire, he'll have a good shot of grabbing Michigan, and then settling in with a wave of momentum for a showdown with Huckabee in South Carolina.

Giuliani - He's still hanging around, waiting for Florida and Super Tuesday, but if Huckabee or McCain emerge out of these early contests as a dominant force, Giuliani is in serious trouble before he ever gets started. Romney is Giuliani's best friend right now. If Romney can muck up the early states by winning New Hampshire, then all things are equal in Florida and he has a shot.

Paul - He'll hang around, but he needed an impressive showing in Iowa to get any heat, and he didn't get it with a fifth place finish.

Out: Duncan Hunter

__________________________________________________ __________________

Obama - He's got everything on his side now. He's the most favorable candidate, he's got the momentum, he can match Clinton in money, and if he wins New Hampshire, he's almost a lock to sweep his way to Super Tuesday. By the same token, though, if Hillary comes back strong in New Hampshire, all his momentum goes away.

Edwards - He's alive, but barely. He's short on money, and he's moving on to a state where he's got very little time to make up a lot of ground. Realistically, he has to place 2nd in New Hampshire to have a realistic chance. That would either mean Hillary is all but knocked out with a third place finish, or Obama's momentum grinded to a screeching halt there. It has to break just right for him to stay in it. At any rate, South Carolina is his litmus test. He needs to win there or he's finished, and if Obama stays hot, he has no chance.

Clinton - Flood New Hampshire and get a win to stop Obama is the only remedy here. She needs to desperately win there to halt Obama's rise, otherwise Obama rides clear to Super Tuesday and at that point he'll have momentum, more money, and more good will. By then she'll be finished. So I'd have to say New Hampshire is her realistic last stand, even though she'll continue through Super Tuesday.

Out: Richardson, Biden, Dodd, Kucinich, Gravel

[epo]

If Chris Matthews could....he would make out with Obama right now.

[K.C.]

If Chris Matthews could....he would make out with Obama right now.

That and he'd punch Hillary in the face.


Matthews is such an ass...the guy sounded and looked like he was on the verge of an uncontrollable cry-fest meltdown after Obama's speech.

[scottinnj]

His oratory skills are on the level of Bobby Kennedy, except in a modern, midwestern tone.

He reminds me of the energy RFK had. And the clear message JFK had.

He really is reaching over to my side. He really means it. I'm am thrilled about this.

I can really see myself voting for this guy.


I love the theme he closed on:


HOPE


I have so long wanted to hear that again, from someone who means it, who really looks at this country as a place of opportunity and not a place of victimization. He just squished Edwards with that speech. The "two Americas" is not the camp I want to be in. I want to be in the "one America" camp, working TOGETHER to solve the problems, not taking sides and pointing fingers for another 8 years.

Democrats, do whatever you can to get this guy the D nomination. I know what is going to happen over here-McCain won't make it, he doesn't have the money. It'll either be Romney or Huckabee. And that won't do.

Change. Hope. Unity. I'm goddamned proud to be an American right now.

[epo]

That and he'd punch Hillary in the face.


Matthews is such an ass...the guy sounded and looked like he was on the verge of an uncontrollable cry-fest meltdown after Obama's speech.

It's obvious where Matthews stands now. In that gushing over Obama he talked about the "peace corps" crowd loving him. Mind you Matthews is a peace corps veteran himself.

Hmm Chris, tell us what you really think.......

[scottinnj]

Ron Paul beat Guiliani. Ron Fucking Paul. By 7 points. Doesn't that just beat all?

Let's see who gets the media time now. I don't like Paul, but it's fascinating to me to see him get 10% while Guiliani got 3%

[BoondockSaint]

Every time I hear Obama speak he wins me over more and more. I try not to get my opinion swayed by a good performance but he is a hell of a speaker.

[epo]

Here are mine:

Republican
1. Mike Huckabee
2. John McCain
3. Mitt Romney

Democratic
1. Barack Obama
2. John Edwards
3. Hillary Clinton.



Alright, I nailed the Demcrats....but kinda shit the bed on the Republicans. Who would have guessed that McCain would tank and fucking grandpa Fred Thompson would find top 3?

[K.C.]

Every time I hear Obama speak he wins me over more and more. I try not to get my opinion swayed by a good performance but he is a hell of a speaker.

That's one of Obama's best selling points. He connects with people like no one's business.


If you listen to him and Edwards, they've both been touting the same populist message for a while. In fact, Edwards had been pimping the message long before Obama was in the race, and almost everyone who follows this stuff kind of noted Obama adopting similar talking points to Edwards during the close of this race.

Yet, the enormous difference between the two that people are by in large moved by Obama when he talks whereas Edwards has always come off as just not quite as believable, despite the two saying similar things.

Presentation always makes the difference.

[K.C.]

Hahahaha...Rush called up Fox News a couple minutes ago to try and trash Hillary and they roped him into a conversation about Huckabee.

For those not in the know, Rush, and most of the Republican establishment hate Huckabee.

[HBox]

I can't believe McCain tanked so bad. That's kind of sad actually. And I think he's going to be hurt a lot by Ron Paul in New Hampshire.

[K.C.]

Hahahaha...Rush called up Fox News a couple minutes ago to try and trash Hillary and they roped him into a conversation about Huckabee.

For those not in the know, Rush, and most of the Republican establishment hate Huckabee.

On that note, they're talking about how much Huckabee is hated by the Republican establishment and who is going to be the anti-Huckabee in the race on MSNBC right now. I can't understate how much the head muckity mucks in the Republican party hate that guy.

Here's the problem:


-Romney failed, and they hate McCain as much as they hate Huckabee.

-Giuliani is still a month away and Huckabee could have it wrapped up by then.


So don't be surprised if guys like Hannity and Limbaugh, and all the all-stars of the vast right-wing conspircay try to prop up Fred Thompson in the next few weeks, provided Thompson stays in, and revive his campaign as the anti-Huckabee.

And if he fails in South Carolina, then they compromise their values and jump on Giuliani as their last hope of stopping him.

[HBox]

He reminds me of the energy RFK had. And the clear message JFK had.

He really is reaching over to my side. He really means it. I'm am thrilled about this.

I can really see myself voting for this guy.


I love the theme he closed on:


HOPE


I have so long wanted to hear that again, from someone who means it, who really looks at this country as a place of opportunity and not a place of victimization. He just squished Edwards with that speech. The "two Americas" is not the camp I want to be in. I want to be in the "one America" camp, working TOGETHER to solve the problems, not taking sides and pointing fingers for another 8 years.

Democrats, do whatever you can to get this guy the D nomination. I know what is going to happen over here-McCain won't make it, he doesn't have the money. It'll either be Romney or Huckabee. And that won't do.

Change. Hope. Unity. I'm goddamned proud to be an American right now.

You really need to read his book. He's good writer so its an easy read.

[scottinnj]

"the audacity of hope"

"dreams from my father: a story of race and inheritance"

Which one do you recommend?

[HBox]

Audacity of Hope.

[scottinnj]

Cool. It's an audio book as well. That is good for me, as I am on the road all day. I can download it to my iPod.

TY HBOX

[IMSlacker]

Here's Obama's victory speech for those who didn't catch it.

<object width="425" height="355"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/yqoFwZUp5vc&rel=1"></param><param name="wmode" value="transparent"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/yqoFwZUp5vc&rel=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" wmode="transparent" width="425" height="355"></embed></object>

[Cleophus James]

All right now pack your bags and get out.

Actually it is weird seeing a group of satellite trucks shooting down the interstate. O theres the CSPAN bus.

[A.J.]

Every time I hear Obama speak he wins me over more and more. I try not to get my opinion swayed by a good performance but he is a hell of a speaker.

I've heard he's well-spoken.

[Cleophus James]

I've heard he's well-spoken.
http://www.the-manifest.org/15/i/ad.jpg