Nevada Caucuses and South Carolina Republican Primary today

[K.C.]

What to look for:

Democrats (Nevada):

-Hillary Clinton- She wins, she's in command and will ride a wave of momentum between here and Florida into Super Tuesday where she will be likely to trounce Obama once and for all. If she loses, it almost guarantees her loss in South Carolina, and forces her to use a lot of her resources to make a stand in Florida to ensure the Obama momentum doesn't carry over there either.

-Barack Obama- If he wins, he's a lock in South Carolina, but more importantly, likely to get a lot more endorsements which will help him tremendously on Super Tuesday. The momentum between Nevada and South Carolina would draw him closer in California, a state Obama probably needs to win the nomination.

-John Edwards- He basically has to win to have any kind of legitimate shot. If he doesn't, it's possible he carries on, but I could see him dropping out tomorrow, even before South Carolina. Edwards would probably endorse Obama.



Republicans (Nevada)

-Romney is expected to win big...anything else would be a shock


Republicans (South Carolina)

-Mike Huckabee- He's emerged over the last two days as the favorite. A win propels him to Florida where he can deliver death blows to both McCain and Giuliani if he wins there as well, and then move on to take on Romney for the nomination. A loss will hurt him badly in terms of perception as he will be boxed in even more by the media who will paint him as a guy who's only relatable to evangelicals.

-John McCain- It's tough to see McCain's path to the nomination without South Carolina tomorrow. He'll hang in the rae if he finishes second, but he's in serious trouble, as he would likely lose Florida, and go to Super Tuesday with very little momentum.

-Fred Thompson- A win and he stays in...a loss and he drops out and endorses John McCain

-Mitt Romney- He's just looking to crack 15% here, win some delegates, and call it a solid showing. He'll spend more of the day touting his likely win in Nevada, and then will hit Florida, while beginning to invest heavily in Super Tuesday.

-Ron Paul-- Unlikely to crack 5% here.

-Rudy Giuliani- Unlikely to crack 4% here.

[K.C.]

Romney wins with 56% (with 38% in) in Nevada.

McCain and Paul seperated by 70 votes for 2nd place at 12% each.


Obama and Clinton in a dead heat...Edwards' support appears to have collapsed.

[K.C.]

They just wrapped up the caucus they televised live on CNN from Caesars Palace.

It went 17 delegates to 16 delegates for Obama over Clinton.

That's actually not a good sign for Obama. He was counting on big turnout from the casinos.

UPDATE: Uncommitted is beating Kucinich...poor Dennis.

[K.C.]

50% of the Democratic vote in:

Clinton - 52%
Obama - 44%
Edwards - 4%

They haen't called it yet, but it looks like Hillary.

62% in

Clinton - 50%
Obama - 45%
Edwards 4%


All three networks call it for Hillary. Tough loss for Obama. South Carolina becomes a must win.

Devastating showing for Edwards. He almost has to drop out. Most indications are he'll endorse Obama whenever he does which could help offset some of the disappointment.

[epo]

Is anyone else finding the Clinton story about voter suppression to be pretty funny? It just seems like a means to change the story from "the Clintons didn't want the union to vote" to "Obama hates fair elections".

Blah.

[K.C.]

Ron Paul pulls ahead of McCain by 13 votes with 36% in.

If that whole field finished behind Paul...ouch.

UPDATE: Paul pulls up to 13% and into a solid 2nd place in Nevada...needs 15% to crack the delegate threshold or they all go to Romney.

Anti-Romney people have to hope both Paul and McCain crack the 15%, but it seems unlikely both will...maybe one.

[NewYorkDragons80]

Ron Paul pulls ahead of McCain by 13 votes with 36% in.

If that whole field finished behind Paul...ouch.

UPDATE: Paul pulls up to 13% and into a solid 2nd place in Nevada...needs 15% to crack the delegate threshold or they all go to Romney.

Anti-Romney people have to hope both Paul and McCain crack the 15%, but it seems unlikely both will...maybe one.
The only people who campaigned in Nevada were Romney and Paul. Plus I think the libertarian message is particularly strong in Nevada, not to mention the fact that Paul is from the Southwest.

If McCain wins tonight, all signs indicate that the nomination is his. The only thing stopping me from a guarantee is Romney's money

[HBox]

Besides Rudy-Hillary, I cannot think of a more vomit inducing campaign than Hillary-Romney. The incredible phoniness, I just can't comprehend.

[NewYorkDragons80]

Romney is the biggest shit-eating cunt in the WHOLE field. I'd vote Lyndon fucking Larouche before I'd vote for that lying sack of shit

[DiabloSammich]

Is Lyndon fucking Larouche even running?

[NewYorkDragons80]

Is Lyndon fucking Larouche even running?
No he's fucking, sillygoose.

[scottinnj]

Is anyone else finding the Clinton story about voter suppression to be pretty funny? It just seems like a means to change the story from "the Clintons didn't want the union to vote" to "Obama hates fair elections".

Blah.

Yep, getting tired of the "politics of personal destruction" Term coined by the Clintons, and practiced to perfection by the Clintons.

yep, double blah.

[scottinnj]

Duncan Hunter drops out of the Republican nomination race tonight.

Anthony must be disappointed.


LINGER LONGER!!!!

[epo]

This "USA" chant during McCain's speech seems a little odd. I like McCain as a person, but man-o-man, does he have Bob Dole written all over him.

[hexy68]

This "USA" chant during McCain's speech seems a little odd. I like McCain as a person, but man-o-man, does he have Bob Dole written all over him.

his daughter is hot (McCain)...can i base my vote on this? :blink:

[keithy_19]

his daughter is hot (McCain)...can i base my vote on this? :blink:

Only if you're a good American.

[epo]

his daughter is hot (McCain)...can i base my vote on this? :blink:

Not a great rationale, but it's just as good as the 2004 "I'd like to have a beer with him" reasoning.

Actually, it's probably better.

[TheMojoPin]

Obama's got 38 delegates to Hillary's 36.

[ToddEVF]

Thursday and Friday my answering machine recieved many political calls. And more than 60% of them were for McCain. I may not be a republican, but McCain has balls. That is what has helped him so far.

[epo]

Obama's got 38 delegates to Hillary's 36.

Have they finally figured out the Nevada delegate mess?

[HBox]

Obama's got 38 delegates to Hillary's 36.

Not quite. You are not counting SuperDelegates which gives Hillary a big lead. And, no, I'm not going to explain SuperDelegates because the only thing I know about them is that they exist. (http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D)

[scottinnj]

Obama's got 38 delegates to Hillary's 36.

I'm glad someone else noticed that too. Good eye Mojo, unfortunately, the MSM who are siding with Sen. Clinton have failed to tell the public this small yet significant fact. It's all, "Hillary won, Hillary won" but she's still losing where it counts.

[epo]

Not too shockingly, the Obama camp is now citing over 200 examples of voter suppression by the Clinton camp. Link to story here. (http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/obama_manager_accuses_clintons.php)

I get a chuckle whenever people try to tell me that Clinton & Obama are gonna be on the same ticket come November.

[K.C.]

I'm glad someone else noticed that too. Good eye Mojo, unfortunately, the MSM who are siding with Sen. Clinton have failed to tell the public this small yet significant fact. It's all, "Hillary won, Hillary won" but she's still losing where it counts.

Hillary's a lock for New York and New Jersey...two of the more delegate rich states, and throw in Arkansas while you're at it...and she's heavily favored in California.

Obama's in trouble. He has to win South Carolina to regain momentum, or he's done.

[K.C.]

If McCain wins tonight, all signs indicate that the nomination is his. The only thing stopping me from a guarantee is Romney's money

Romney is a big obstacle for McCain...hell, Huckabee still is too.

All accounts seem to indicate Huckabee would have won South Carolina walking away if Fred Thompson had dropped out before hand.

Huckabee will do well in the deep south...and Romney has the money to do well in the Northeast and California. If Giuliani stays in, he will pry New York and New Jersey away, too.

What's that leave for McCain? The southwest. And he doesn't have a ton of money where he's going to be able to pour in a lot of cash to make up some of his differences.

I'd give a slight edge to Romney if I was handicapping it at the moment. If McCain does some serious fundraising, or wins Florida, then it might be a different story.

[TooLowBrow]

didn't Giuliani spend time in the southwest, giving speeches, after he stopped being mayor? he might have more support there than people expect.

[K.C.]

He might actually crack double-digits in one of these things, but Giuliani's support has withered nationwide.

And for all his time spent in Florida, he will go into Florida AT BEST in a four-way statistical tie with McCain, Huckabee, and Romney

AND, he has no money.

He's on the ropes pretty badly, and it was all his own doing by this ridiculous strategy. But if he hangs in through Feb. 5th, he's still likely to take NY and/or NJ. So he could play spoiler.

didn't Giuliani spend time in the southwest, giving speeches, after he stopped being mayor? he might have more support there than people expect.

[TooLowBrow]

he could drop to independent or get picked up by some smaller third part nomination

[K.C.]

Where we go from here

Hillary Clinton - She throws her resources into SC and tries to drive a nail into Obama's coffin there. An upset almost guarantees her the nomination. If she loses, it's still a race, but it doesn't sting as badly on the heels of her Nevada victory. She still has the upper hand in all the major delegate states on Feb. 5th so she's a heavy favorite.

Barack Obama - He needs a monster turnout in SC. A 2-3% victory won't be enough. He needs a show of strength to prove he still has that energized base. A strong SC win would push him towards California for Feb 5th, which is probably also a must win if he's going to have a legitimate shot. He's definitely the underdog at this point.

John Edwards - He's all but out, but he's going to stay in the race. He could have an effect in that he may be able to throw his supporters to someone in an endorsement in exchange for a VP or cabinet position.



John McCain - He's looking good right now, but he still needs Florida. If Giuliani wins there, or Huckabee or Romney pull an upset, this whole thing gets thrown back to square one. McCain also needs to solve his money issues and make sure he's competitive enough in the big money states where it seems Romney will likely spend most of his money.

Mitt Romney - He'll compete in Florida. A win would position him very well, but all he needs is a strong showing. Romney needs to start concentrating his money in California, and other more sizeable delegate states as he has a definitive economic advantage on Super Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee - He has to come up with a big win in Florida, or it may be all over. If he can finish strong there, or pull off the win, he can parlay that into success in the midwest and deep south on Feb. 5th. Huck's problem, though, is that without viability in the big states among non-evangelicals, he seems like a guy who can hang in there, but won't be there for the nomination unless he finds away to break free of being marginalized as the Christian candidate.

Fred Thompson - It's curtains for Grandpa Fred...concession should be coming at some point.

Rudy Giuliani - Florida or bust. He needs Florida to create momentum that will propel him into California on Feb 5th. Without it, he's screwed.

Ron Paul - He'll be in the race until the convention, and will try to pick up delegates here and there. Paul's raised so much money, that he'll be an annoyance for the top tier candidates, but it's unlikely he'll ever catch fire. Still, he'll get a platform for his views, and then it's on to...maybe a third party run.

[NewYorkDragons80]

Romney is a big obstacle for McCain...hell, Huckabee still is too.

All accounts seem to indicate Huckabee would have won South Carolina walking away if Fred Thompson had dropped out before hand.
Not necessarily, because exit polls showed McCain getting 27% of the evangelical vote to Huckabee's 40%. Thompson certainly helped, though

[sailor]

how did obama win more delegates than clinton (12-11) in new hampshire if she "won"? makes no sense. then, they won the same number of delegates as each other in iowa and nevada, even though each one won one and lost the other one?

[DolaMight]

He might actually crack double-digits in one of these things, but Giuliani's support has withered nationwide.

And for all his time spent in Florida, he will go into Florida AT BEST in a four-way statistical tie with McCain, Huckabee, and Romney

AND, he has no money.

He's on the ropes pretty badly, and it was all his own doing by this ridiculous strategy. But if he hangs in through Feb. 5th, he's still likely to take NY and/or NJ. So he could play spoiler.

How can Rudy have no money? he had shitloads and I haven't even seen him attempt to run in any of the primaries thus far. Where did the money go? Everyone says he's in florida, I don't understand his strategy. Does he think that pulling off New York will be enough to win?

I can't be happier Mac is Bac, I just hope he can hold this momentum.


As I canadian where our great leader elections last roughly 2 months and cost just loonies, not 2 years and 100 million dollars, I am unaware of some things. What is this super tuesday? is there gonna be like 20 state primaries in one night? It should be pretty much over after that I assume.

http://d.yimg.com/us.yimg.com/p/nm/20080120/2008_01_19t160748_450x307_us_usa_politics.jpg?x=40 0&y=272&sig=ZNmcnRiWT_LZKzH7liTa9A--

[sailor]

How can Rudy have no money? he had shitloads and I haven't even seen him attempt to run in any of the primaries thus far. Where did the money go? Everyone says he's in florida, I don't understand his strategy. Does he think that pulling off New York will be enough to win?

fla, ny, nj, ca or something like that.

[K.C.]

How can Rudy have no money? he had shitloads and I haven't even seen him attempt to run in any of the primaries thus far. Where did the money go? Everyone says he's in florida, I don't understand his strategy. Does he think that pulling off New York will be enough to win?


Not sure where it went, but it's pretty well documented he's a little light right now...he told his staffers he was going to stop paying them.

[DolaMight]

Not sure where it went, but it's pretty well documented he's a little light right now...he told his staffers he was going to stop paying them.

Hmm, I guess that commercial that sold Ron about muslims crawling over each other like ants broke the bank.

[DolaMight]

based on current polling in the remaining states the electopundit supercomputer gots mccain pullin out the minimum majority of delegates to win.

http://bp0.blogger.com/_5oq-A3JdJGM/R5PUb-gw0vI/AAAAAAAAAII/-hay9ql8fZI/s1600/RepDelegateRaceElectoPundit.JPG

[JerseySean]

he could drop to independent or get picked up by some smaller third part nomination

Recent polls have McCain beating Rudy in NJ and one will be released in NY that has him down as well. Rudy is done, flawed strategy from the start.

[JerseySean]

fla, ny, nj, ca or something like that.

Rudy wont win one of these states. He is lucky if he comes in 3rd in Florida

[JerseySean]

how did obama win more delegates than clinton (12-11) in new hampshire if she "won"? makes no sense. then, they won the same number of delegates as each other in iowa and nevada, even though each one won one and lost the other one?

The delegate count was 13-12 Obama. Barack won more caucus locations then Hillary

[JerseySean]

Where we go from here


Rudy Giuliani - Florida or bust. He needs Florida to create momentum that will propel him into California on Feb 5th. Without it, he's screwed.


Cali delegates are awarded by whomever wins each congressional district. So there will be no sweeping delegate chunk coming from there for Rudy. Mitt is stronger in Cali.

[K.C.]

Cali delegates are awarded by whomever wins each congressional district. So there will be no sweeping delegate chunk coming from there for Rudy. Mitt is stronger in Cali.

True...but the point I was trying to make is that Rudy is DOA everywhere if he doesn't win Florida.

Most polling has him losing in New York right now, as well, to McCain.

The perception is that he's unelectable by the way he ran his campaign. Plus the fact that Hillary would own him in New York and he's the freakin' NYC mayor doesn't bode well for him.

To be fair, I think Romney would conceivably lose Massachusettes, as well in the general election.