Feb 19th: WI, Wash Part II, HA primaries

[K.C.]

New primaries, new thread.

Strategic Vision has Obama up 45-41 in Wisconsin....he's got a lead, but it's within the margin of error.

All of this talk of Hillary holding up in Texas is retarded....she needs to play in Wisconsin or it will be a big mistake. She absolutely can win there, and a win would blunt all this Obama momentum.

And then there's this story:

Edwards weighs Clinton endorsement. (http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/story?id=4281404&page=1)

If he endorses her, then goes to Wisconsin and does some stumping for her on poverty, she'd be a lock to win that state.


So her biggest enemy, and one of Obama's biggest strengths right now is her campaign strategy.

[epo]

As a resident of Wisconsin let me give you the tide of the Democratic race here.

It's all Obama, all day. This is three fold:


A majority of the Edwards people have shifted to Obama. The talk they give me is that Hillary is "too embedded" to implement anything new.

With the McCain race over, all of the independents & grumpy republicans are voting Obama. In this state, those voters would like to see an Obama/McCain race in the fall.

Voters are feeling dissed by Clinton. Last night Obama came directly to Wisconsin and rallied at the Kohl Center. Hillary went to Texas and is avoiding the state in comparison to Obama...and don't think voters here aren't noticing this. The slight is very much talked about.


I would bet on a 10%+ win for Obama in Wisconsin.

[scottinnj]

I would bet on a 10%+ win for Obama in Wisconsin.

....maybe a little more then that epo!

[epo]

....maybe a little more then that epo!

Always promise low & deliver high my friend.

[Fezticle98]

Is HA supposed to be HI?

Obviously Obama will destroy there. I read a story recently that he is outraising Clinton 7/1 in Hawaii.

Another Obama sweep.

[K.C.]

Is HA supposed to be HI?

Obviously Obama will destroy there. I read a story recently that he is outraising Clinton 7/1 in Hawaii.

Another Obama sweep.

Hmmm...uh....guys....latest American Research Group poll has Hillary up 49-43 over Barack in Wisconsin.

He seems to be losing some momentum there.

[epo]

Hmmm...uh....guys....latest American Research Group poll has Hillary up 49-43 over Barack in Wisconsin.

He seems to be losing some momentum there.

Yes, ARG says that and every other poll has Obama up 4-5% consistently.

Being in Wisconsin, let me point out again, that voters aren't impressed with the fact that Clinton didn't bother to show up to the state until yesterday & all of her events today got cancelled due to the weather. She will be leaving the state completely tomorrow morning.

Please also remember that Wisconsin is an open primary with same day registration, which are both factors in Obama's favor.

[thejives]

Hillary seems to have listened to epo.
She's staying in Wisconsin tomorrow (monday) before heading down to Texas at night, where Obama is tightening the race.

I agree with Epo though that Obama will win WI. At least I'm counting on him to deliver WI.

K.C., do you agree that if Obama wins TX it's over? Even if there's only a slight difference in delegates?

Also, why the hell are there no polls out of Hawaii?
Have they substituted all their telephones for fucking coconuts?

[epo]

Here is some new Wisconsin data:

The latest Public Policy Polling data released today has Obama up 53-40% over Clinton in the Badger State. Link to data here. (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Wisconsin_Release_021808.pdf) While I believe Obama is leading, I still would guess that the numbers are more in the 4-7% area. The difference is that Public Policy thinks turnout will drive the numbers higher.

And Survey USA (who by the way has done an outstanding job this year) did some general election data with Clinton/Obama vs. McCain in the fall in Wisconsin. Link to data here. (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a661ced6-61db-4aea-a60c-ebe256c4676c) The matchups go:

McCain - 49%
Clinton - 42%

Obama - 52%
McCain - 42%

Mind you, the general election numbers are important as Wisconsin is very much a swing state. Kerry only won Wisconsin by 5,000 votes last time around. If Dems want November to go much smoother, Obama is obviously the candidate in these types of states.

[K.C.]

K.C., do you agree that if Obama wins TX it's over? Even if there's only a slight difference in delegates?


Most likely. The math gets very difficult for Hillary if she loses Texas, or essentially ties it, and the momentum makes it nearly impossible to overcome. Plus, it becomes more and more likely that a lot of her super delegates will jump on Obama to prevent any kind of drawn out fight at the convention.



The DNC does have one little quandry they have to resolve in Michigan and Florida. They really need to find a way to work those people into the convention, or else it hurts their operation in those states in the general election.

The problem is if Obama doesn't hit the magic number, and it does come down to Super Delegates, seating Michigan and Florida could potentially tip the balance back to Hillary, and under that scenario, it would rip the party apart.

So Howard Dean has his work cut out for him, to satisfy all involved...I think they're hoping that once someone appears decisively ahead (minus the super delegates, and the disputed states), that the other will gracefully bow out.

I wouldn't count on it with either of these two...and especially Hillary. This is probably her one and only shot at it.

[scottinnj]

All due respect for all you Democrats, but the primary rules were set two years ago, right?
The Florida and Michigan voters have to swallow this bitter pill, and work in the grassroots to make sure none of their officials pull this stuff again. It really is a shame to those people, and they really got screwed. Howard has to follow the rules on this, or else it will be worse for the Democrats in November then it could be if he allows the delegates in the convention.
The Republicans would have a field day with it, making it worse then hanging chads and dimpled ballots. Especially if it is the catalyst that makes Hillary the nominee. Charges of corruption, power grabs and cronyism will just drag her candidacy down, and she will always be on defense instead of telling the public her plans and goals as President.

[epo]

3 minutes until the polls close here in WI!

[DiabloSammich]

3 minutes until the polls close here in WI!


QFT!!!!!!!

[epo]

Is it me or is John McCain giving a "stay the course" speech?

[epo]

NBC news has called the election in Wisconsin for Obama.

[K.C.]

NBC news has called the election in Wisconsin for Obama.

You know...I was just thinking how much Obama caught lightning in a bottle. It really is a pretty amazing feat that he's on the verge of defeating the Clintons, basically coming from nowhere to do it.

It's become redundant to hear him say the word 'change,' but it really does define his candidacy.

I think two terms of Bush...two of the worst presidential terms in history (hey, it's my opinion)...are really the driving force behind this candidacy.


Any other year, any other incumbent administration, Hillary Clinton probably would have won the Democratic primary in a walk. People can dismiss this statement, but the Clintons were far and away the most popular people in the Democratic Party (except maybe Al Gore). Yes, even Hillary.

But Bush accomplished two things:
1) He's made people so jaded by the government, that they crave the 'anti-politician' more than ever (That's Obama....yes, everything he does is as politically calculated as anyone else...I'm not a rube...but I'm not sure anyone has ever defined the anti-politician candor as he has).

2) He's made people wary of legacy candidates, which made people rethink how they view Hillary.


And really, that's a lot of it in a nutshell. Obama is a great candidate...no doubt, and runs a great campaign organization.

But this is all about taking the wheel and just jerking it across the median on the highway, as Ronnie B so eloquently put, a while back.



And with that...I'm ready to call it for Obama...maybe the Clintons have one last trick up their sleeve. But I don't see it.

[scottinnj]

On the Democrat side, Washington State still too close to call. Hillary is ahead by just over 8000 votes, but only 25% of the precincts have been counted.

[epo]

On the Democrat side, Washington State still too close to call. Hillary is ahead by just over 8000 votes, but only 25% of the precincts have been counted.

That Democratic Primary is a straw poll with no relevance or delegates. The previously held caucus is all that matters for the Dems.

[scottinnj]

That Democratic Primary is a straw poll with no relevance or delegates. The previously held caucus is all that matters for the Dems.

That's good for us. WOOHOO! :clap: YaaY Team!

[scottinnj]

On the Democrat side, Washington State still too close to call. Hillary is ahead by just over 8000 votes, but only 25% of the precincts have been counted.

That Democratic Primary is a straw poll with no relevance or delegates. The previously held caucus is all that matters for the Dems.

That's good for us. WOOHOO! :clap: YaaY Team!

53% of the vote reported in Washington, and now Obama is winning by 3 points. So even in an irrelevant primary, OBAMA WINNING!!! That should help his superdelegate status, right?

And a 17 point margin of victory for Obama in Wisconsin.

Hey Hillary: NAH NAH NAH NAH, NAH NAH NAH NAH- HEY HEY HEY, GOODBYE!!!!