The Bottom - have we hit it? (Real Estate)

[Freitag]

Spun off from the primary RE thread...

I want to buy a house like, RIGHT NOW. Like, yesterday. I want to know if we've hit the bottom yet, and if not, how long it will be before we hit the bottom. Is now a good time to buy? Or should I wait? I'm also concerned with mortgage rates going up, etc.

I need some validation, and I've gotten nothing but mixed feedback from everyone.

[boobieman]

Depends on where you are buying...here in NYC prices are still up. NY state total houseing prices dropped around 20% but here in the city it is still up and staying up. Which makes it hard for me.

Where you buying? If you are looking for something to live in for a long time, buy what you can and don't worry about the value. If you are looking for investment..I say wait.

Don't forget things also change when electing a new Prez.


Hope this Helps.

SEEYEYEYAAAAAAAA

[JPMNICK]

Spun off from the primary RE thread...

I want to buy a house like, RIGHT NOW. Like, yesterday. I want to know if we've hit the bottom yet, and if not, how long it will be before we hit the bottom. Is now a good time to buy? Or should I wait? I'm also concerned with mortgage rates going up, etc.

I need some validation, and I've gotten nothing but mixed feedback from everyone.

we are not at the bottom yet, and when we do hit it, prices will stay level for a few years, meaning you are actually losing money vs. inflation.

unless you get a sick deal on a house that you love in an area you plan on staying in for 10+ years, i would hold off.

when the RE bubble of the late 80's ended in 1991, it took about 10 years in this area for prices to level back to the price those people paid, adjusted for inflation.

if your rent is cheap enough right now, i would try to wait another year or 2. save more cash, make sure your money is working for you by putting it in high yield short term CD's or maybe buying some T-bills.

[Freitag]

we are not at the bottom yet, and when we do hit it, prices will stay level for a few years, meaning you are actually losing money vs. inflation.

unless you get a sick deal on a house that you love in an area you plan on staying in for 10+ years, i would hold off.

when the RE bubble of the late 80's ended in 1991, it took about 10 years in this area for prices to level back to the price those people paid, adjusted for inflation.

if your rent is cheap enough right now, i would try to wait another year or 2. save more cash, make sure your money is working for you by putting it in high yield short term CD's or maybe buying some T-bills.

It's a house that was built in the mid-90's, and has seen constant appreciation since then, the price of the place has had a 250% appreciation since the units were bought new.

The price of the place is 2.5% off the highest comp sold.

It's a townhouse that's less than 350K. Central Jersey. We have no issue staying there for 7-10 years.

My agent is hounding me that it's fairly priced and threw a fit when I put an initial offer in of 12.5% off asking.

[A.J.]

I just talked to my realtor last week and she said there's at least a 6-7 month window(this just after she attended national realtor conference).

I've been hoping to buy something cheap (or cheaper) in my old neighborhood.

[donnie_darko]

you'll know we've hit bottom when mexico starts building their fence to keep americans out of their country.

[JPMNICK]

It's a house that was built in the mid-90's, and has seen constant appreciation since then, the price of the place has had a 250% appreciation since the units were bought new.

The price of the place is 2.5% off the highest comp sold.

It's a townhouse that's less than 350K. Central Jersey. We have no issue staying there for 7-10 years.

My agent is hounding me that it's fairly priced and threw a fit when I put an initial offer in of 12.5% off asking.

10 years old and 250% appreciation, which means people who bought it 7-10 year ago have a LOT of equity in there, so if they choose to sell in the next few years, they can take a lower price and still come out way ahead.

townhouses and condo's are rough in a bad RE market because there are direct perfect comps. at least with a stand alone house, lot sizes, bedrooms sizes and another stuff are slightly different. with a townhouse, there is an exact model somewhere that sold.

if you love it, and you can afford it, it is not a horrible idea. but, if your chick is looking for a new job and not sure where she is going to work, maybe now is not the best time to buy anyway.

[Freitag]

if you love it, and you can afford it, it is not a horrible idea. but, if your chick is looking for a new job and not sure where she is going to work, maybe now is not the best time to buy anyway.


If we get this place, she can work from home. The place is also pretty centrally located, it's only about 7-8 miles south from where we are now.

[Freitag]

The other thing I need to realize is that interest rates are going up, especially with oil coming down.

[King Hippos Bandaid]

I hope not

I have to wait on a few CD s to mature, but I am hoping that the prices drop down a bit lower when i start looking in October

The Prices for semi attached property in Staten island is creeping under$400,000 which is right up my alley

Would rather have a townhouse than a semi (less work for first house), but wife must have a pool

[Dan]

If you buy, it won't be the bottom. If you don't buy, it will be the bottom.

[drjoek]

The only suggestion I can make is DONT believe a word your realtor has to say. I'm not aware of any realtors here on.net who I may offend but I don't think I'm wrong. Realtors work for the seller not you and they can and will say anything they can to close a deal, with you responsible for due dilligence to prove them wrong or right. Every dollar more they get you to spend is 3-6 cents in their pocket so stick to your guns.

[Freitag]

If you buy, it won't be the bottom. If you don't buy, it will be the bottom.

Holy crap.

[Recyclerz]

I agree with JPMNick on the financials and with 90% of what Dr. Joek had to say (it is very important to remember that the agent is getting paid by the seller, unless you specificly pay for a buyer's agent, but my experience and reading has been that if you get close enough to the "right" price the agent will start pushing the seller to accept an offer rather than hold out for the last few % because it is more valuable for the agent to get paid most of the commission sooner rather than later - time value of $).

There have been a lot of interesting shows on NPR lately talking about real estate. I would say the consensus is that we're not at the bottom yet. One real estate analyst said the only property moving is foreclosure sales, which you probably can say are at the rock bottom in terms of price right now. I think JPMNick is right in that the sellers you're describing don't really seem "motivated" yet.

However, if you're jonesing to start your married life in your own place, can comfortably afford the payments and won't beat yourself up if a comparable unit sells for $30-40K less at the real bottom, you might want to up your offer 5% and have another go at it. I think you're right that interest payments will drift higher (assuming no world emergencies) and spike higher if the shit hits the fan, so you need to factor that in as well.

[angrymissy]

If you buy, it won't be the bottom. If you don't buy, it will be the bottom.

:ohmy: Dan from Hoboken appearance?

[TheGameHHH]

im posting in here strictly because there was a Dan from Hoboken sighting. I have nothing else useful to offer.

[JPMNICK]

good article about how housing still might have a 33% fall left in it. albiet, this is a national number, but the North East is not immune to this, regardless of what people say. I have been very bearish on the housing market for a few years, and all of my predictions have come to fruition.

http://www.cnbc.com//id/26007215

I keep hearing 2010 as the year it might turn around, but i would not be suprised if when we look back on all of this, it is really closer to 2012.

from the article:
If you look at the futures market, it's indicating a range right around between 2002-2003 levels, when home ownership rates were actually higher, but fewer people can qualify for a mortgage because you've got to put 20 percent down, and that's a lot of money for people," she continued. "Furthermore, then you've got to find a bank to lend to you, because, Countrywide's not lending to you."

[mendyweiss]

Look, The Fuckin Experts Said Oil Would Be 150-200 Dollars/Bbl By Labor Day, The Experts Are The AS Clueless As The Next Guy. Rates Are Good, Prices Have Come Down, You Are't Getting Any Tax Break REnting. Mendy Says If You Like The House And Neighborhood,GO For It !!!, But Please , Invite Some DC People To The Housewarming

[cougarjake13]

Spun off from the primary RE thread...

I want to buy a house like, RIGHT NOW. Like, yesterday. I want to know if we've hit the bottom yet, and if not, how long it will be before we hit the bottom. Is now a good time to buy? Or should I wait? I'm also concerned with mortgage rates going up, etc.

I need some validation, and I've gotten nothing but mixed feedback from everyone.



im in the same boat

i dont wanna get in too early and spend more when if i waited another month

im thinking we're gonna be good until after the election and and prob until after the new prez gets sworn in

[JPMNICK]

Look, The Fuckin Experts Said Oil Would Be 150-200 Dollars/Bbl By Labor Day, The Experts Are The AS Clueless As The Next Guy. Rates Are Good, Prices Have Come Down, You Are't Getting Any Tax Break REnting. Mendy Says If You Like The House And Neighborhood,GO For It !!!, But Please , Invite Some DC People To The Housewarming

actually a very small percentage thought that it would be 200 a barrels, but since it was something that would get people to read articles or listen to news stories.

[booster11373]

Buy the House you want at the price you can afford, the next deal will always be around the corner........................


But to answer your question I would say no the bottom hasnt been reached yet