View Full Version : 2008 Election Polling Thread
National Tracking Polls
ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 53 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +2
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 52 McCain 40
Diageo/Hotline
Obama 50 McCain 43 - Trend Obama +2
Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 52 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +3
Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 51 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +1
Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 50 McCain 45 - Trend Obama +1
GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 46 - Trend McCain +1
IBD/TIPP
Obama 46 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +3
Rasmussen
Obama 52 McCain 45 - Trend Unchanged
Zogby
Obama 51 McCain 41 - Trend McCain +2
National Polls
Democracy Corps 10/21-10/23
Obama 52 McCain 43
Economist 10/20-10/21
Obama 49 McCain 41
State Tracking Polls
Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 52 McCain 40 - Trend Obama +2
State Polls
Georgia - Rasmussen 10/22
McCain 51 Obama 46
Georgia - Politico/Insider Advantage 10/23
Obama 48 McCain 47
Georgia - Strategic Vision 10/20-10/22
McCain 51 Obama 45
Minnesota - Rasmussen 10/22
Obama 56 McCain 41
Indiana - SurveyUSA 10/21-10/22
Obama 49 McCain 45
North Carolina - Winthrop 9/29-10/19
Obama 45 McCain 44
North Carolina - Rasmussen 10/23
McCain 50 Obama 48
South Carolina - Winthrop 9/29-10/19
McCain 55 Obama 35
Virginia - Winthrop 9/29-10/19
Obama 45 McCain 44
Florida - Politico/Insider Advantage 10/22
Obama 48 McCain 47
Florida - Strategic Vision 10/20-10/22
McCain 48 Obama 46
Ohio - Politico/Insider Advantage 10/22
Obama 52 McCain 42
Ohio - Strategic Vision 10/20-10/22
McCain 48 Obama 45
Pennsylvania - Strategic Vision 10/20-10/22
Obama 50 McCain 43
Michigan - EPIC/MRA 10/19-10/22
Obama 51 McCain 37
Oregon - Riley Research 10/10-10/20
Obama 48 McCain 34
Iowa - Rasmussen 10/23
Obama 52 McCain 44
New Hampshire - Rasmussen 10/23
Obama 50 McCain 46
National Polls
Newsweek 10/22-10/23
Obama 53 McCain 41
State Polls
Ohio - Public Policy Polling 10/21-10/23
Obama 51 McCain 44
A state poll that has been little reported:
Arizona - Myers Research (D) & Grove Insight (D). 10/23-24. Likely voters. MoE 4% (No trend lines)
Likely voters
McCain (R) 44
Obama (D) 40
Early voters (34% of the sample)
McCain (R) 46
Obama (D) 47
The sample was 40 percent Republican, 33 Democratic, and 26 percent independent.
National Tracking Polls
ABC News/Washington Post
Sat: Obama 53 McCain 44 - Trend Unchanged
Sun: Obama 52 McCain 45
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Sat: Obama 52 McCain 40 - Trend Unchanged
Sun: Obama 51 McCain 40
Diageo/Hotline
Sat: Obama 50 McCain 43 - Trend Unchanged
Sun: Obama 50 McCain 42
Gallup
Registered Voters:
Sat: Obama 51 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +1
Sun: Obama 51 McCain 42
Likely Voters - Expanded:
Sat: Obama 51 McCain 43 - Trend Obama +1
Sun: Obama 52 McCain 43
Likely Voters - Traditional:
Sat: Obama 51 McCain 44 - Trend Unchanged
Sun: Obama 50 McCain 45
IBD/TIPP
Sat: Obama 46 McCain 42 - Trend Unchanged
Sun: Obama 47 McCain 43
Rasmussen
Sat: Obama 52 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +1
Sun: Obama 52 McCain 44
Zogby
Sat: Obama 51 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +1
Sun: Obama 49 McCain 44
State Tracking Polls
Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Sat: Obama 53 McCain 41 - Trend Unchanged
Sun: Obama 53 McCain 40
State Polls
Ohio - University of Cincinnati 10/18-10/22
Obama 49 McCain 46 Nader 2 Barr 1
Ohio - University of Akron 9/29-10/19
Obama 45 McCain 41
Colorado - Rocky Mountain News 10/21-10/23
Obama 52 McCain 40 Barr 1 Nader 1
Arkansas - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/21-10/22
McCain 52 Obama 41
South Dakota - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/22-10/24
McCain 50 Obama 41
Tennessee - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/21-10/22
McCain 54 Obama 38
Kentucky - Research 2000 10/19-10/21
McCain 55 Obama 39
Arizona - Myers/Grove 10/23-10/24
McCain 44 Obama 40
Arizona - Zimmerman and Associates
McCain 44 Obama 42
Iowa - Research 2000 10/19-10/22
Obama 54 McCain 39
Iowa - NBC News/Mason Dixon 10/22-10/23
Obama 51 McCain 40
Virginia - Public Policy Polling 10/21-10/23
Obama 52 McCain 43
Georgia - NBC News/Mason Dixon 10/22-10/23
McCain 49 Obama 43
Missouri - NBC News/Mason Dixon 10/22-10/23
McCain 46 Obama 45
Missouri - Research 2000
Obama 48 McCain 47
New Hampshire - Boston Globe 10/18-10/22
Obama 54 McCain 39
Wisconsin - Rasmussen 10/23
Obama 51 McCain 44
West Virginia - Research 2000 10/22-10/24
McCain 49 Obama 43
National Tracking Polls
ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 52 McCain 45 - Trend Unchanged
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 50 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +3
Diageo/Hotline
Obama 50 McCain 42 - Trend Unchanged
Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 52 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +1
Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 53 McCain 43 - Trend Obama +1
Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 50 McCain 45 - Trend Unchanged
GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 46 - Trend McCain +1
IBD/TIPP
Obama 47 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +1
Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 46 - Trend McCain +3
Zogby
Obama 50 McCain 45 - Trend Unchanged
State Tracking Polls
Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 53 McCain 40 - Trend Unchanged
State Polls
Virginia - Washington Post 10/22-10/25
Obama 52 McCain 44
Virginia - SurveyUSA 10/25-10/26
Obama 52 McCain 43
Virginia - Virginia Commonwealth University 10/20-10/22
Obama 51 McCain 40
Virginia - Zogby 10/23-10/26
Obama 52 McCain 45
Iowa - Marist 10/22-10/23
Obama 52 McCain 42
New Hampshire 10/22-10/23
Obama 50 McCain 45
North Carolina - Public Policy Polling 10/15-10/16
Obama 49 McCain 48 Barr 1
North Carolina - Zogby 10/23-10/26
Obama 50 McCain 46
Pennsylvania - Temple 10/20-10/26
Obama 50 McCain 41
Washington - Washington Poll 10/18-10/26
Obama 55 McCain 34
Oregon - SurveyUSA 10/25-10/26
Obama 57 McCain 38
California - Rasmussen 10/25
Obama 61 McCain 34
Florida - Suffolk 10/23-10/26
Obama 49 McCain 44
Florida - Zogby 10/23-10/26
Obama 47 McCain 47
Arizona - Rasmussen 10/26
McCain 51 Obama 46
Missouri - SurveyUSA 10/25-10/26
Obama 48 McCain 48
Missouri - Zogby 10/23-10/26
Obama 48 McCain 46
Ohio - Zogby 10/23-10/26
Obama 50 McCain 45
Nevada - Zogby 10/23-10/26
Obama 48 McCain 44
Indiana - Zogby 10/23-10/26
McCain 50 Obama 44
West Virginia 10/23-10/26
McCain 50 Obama 40
State Polls
Colorado - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26
Obama 50 McCain 46
Florida - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26
Obama 51 McCain 47
Missouri - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26
Obama 48 McCain 47
North Carolina - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26
McCain 49 Obama 48
Ohio - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26
Obama 48 McCain 45
Virginia - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/26
Obama 51 McCain 47
http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/195911.jpg
errrr...yeah...
:wallbash:
National Tracking Polls
ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 52 McCain 45 - Trend Unchanged
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 50 McCain 43 - Trend McCain +1
Diageo/Hotline
Obama 50 McCain 42 - Trend Unchanged
Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 50 McCain 43 - Trend McCain +3
Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 51 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +3
Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 49 McCain 47 - Trend McCain +3
GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 46 - Trend Unchanged
IBD/TIPP
Obama 48 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +1
Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 46 - Trend Unchanged
Zogby
Obama 49 McCain 45 - Trend McCain +1
National Polls
Pew 10/23-10/26
Obama 52 McCain 38
ARG 10/25-10/27
Obama 50 McCain 45
State Tracking Polls
Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 53 McCain 41 - Trend McCain +1
State Polls
Mississippi - Rasmussen 10/27
McCain 53 Obama 45
New Hampshire - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/23-10/25
Obama 50 McCain 39
North Carolina - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/23-10/25
Obama 47 McCain 47
Montana - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/23-10/25
McCain 48 Obama 44
New Jersey - Strategic Vision 10/24-10/26
Obama 53 McCain 38
Wisconsin - Strategic Vision 10/24-10/26
Obama 50 McCain 41
Arizona - Northern Arizona University 10/18-10/27
McCain 49 Obama 41
Nevada - Rasmussen 10/27
Obama 50 McCain 46
Nevada - Suffolk 10/23-10/27
Obama 50 McCain 40
Pennsylvania - Rasmussen 10/27
Obama 53 McCain 46
Georgia - Insider Advantage 10/27
McCain 48 Obama 47
Indiana - Research 2000 10/23-10/25
Obama 48 McCain 47
Louisiana - SE Louisiana University 10/20-10/23
McCain 51 Obama 38
Arkansas - Rasmussen 10/27
McCain 54 Obama 44
Obama's numbers in Arizona and Mississippi are interesting.
I'm a little surprised he's not polling a little closer in Louisiana, but I guess that state has changed quite a bit, demographically, post-Katrina.
It's odd. The National Polls show a little bit of a tightening, but it's not reflected in any of the state polls (at least yet).
Something's a little off...
JerseySean
10-29-2008, 10:43 AM
Obama's numbers in Arizona and Mississippi are interesting.
I'm a little surprised he's not polling a little closer in Louisiana, but I guess that state has changed quite a bit, demographically, post-Katrina.
It's odd. The National Polls show a little bit of a tightening, but it's not reflected in any of the state polls (at least yet).
Something's a little off...
Something is WAY OFF this year. I would look at the RCP average and the daily trackers to see which direction the numbers are headed. Here is where I CANT believe the State polls. Marist put out a poll today I think which has Obama up 3 in Ohio and something like 15 in PA. That NEVER happens. It just cant happen. It never has.
As for Louisiana, dont ever try to predict it. Post-Katrina numbers hurt Republicans as much as it did Dems. St Bernard and Plaquemines Parishes were emptied like Orleans was and they are STRONG GOP parishes. I think Barry will do well down there. But these state polls are fucked up.
Here is where I CANT believe the State polls. Marist put out a poll today I think which has Obama up 3 in Ohio and something like 15 in PA. That NEVER happens. It just cant happen. It never has.
That particular example is not quite as unbelievable to me, at least for this election.
I could see Obama winning by 10-15 points in PA and actually losing Ohio.
Pennsylvania, for the Democrats, runs through turnout in Philadelphia, and all indications are that he's going have record shattering turnout in that area.
That combined with the fact that he's running much better than Kerry did throughout the other parts of the state suggest a blowout to me (regardless of the McCain campaign's suggestions that PA is very much in play).
Ohio is a little bit of a different animal. It's like a larger Western PA, with smaller urban populations. Demographically, it tilts more to McCain (there's probably more registered Democrats, but they're mostly conservative Democrats).
While there's a lot of similarities between Ohio and Western PA, Ohio doesn't have the equalizer that is Philly.
But the polling data is getting spotty. I don't think people know quite how to weight their polls for this election, because the electorate is assumed to have changed so much.
JerseySean
10-29-2008, 11:09 AM
That particular example is not quite as unbelievable to me, at least for this election.
I could see Obama winning by 10-15 points in PA and actually losing Ohio.
Pennsylvania, for the Democrats, runs through turnout in Philadelphia, and all indications are that he's going have record shattering turnout in that area.
That combined with the fact that he's running much better than Kerry did throughout the other parts of the state suggest a blowout to me (regardless of the McCain campaign's suggestions that PA is very much in play).
Ohio is a little bit of a different animal. It's like a larger Western PA, with smaller urban populations. Demographically, it tilts more to McCain (there's probably more registered Democrats, but they're mostly conservative Democrats).
While there's a lot of similarities between Ohio and Western PA, Ohio doesn't have the equalizer that is Philly.
But the polling data is getting spotty. I don't think people know quite how to weight their polls for this election, because the electorate is assumed to have changed so much.
But here is the deal as far as PA goes. Philly is an automatic +400k for Obama maybe 450k. By the time you get to Harrisberg, that lead is cut down to 200k. Even if he is running well, west of Harrisberg, which Im not sure he is doing all that all that well compared to Kerry/Gore, he needs to avoid a 5 point loss. If he is up only 3 in Ohio, that means the college and urban centers aside, he is down at least 12-15. Which in no way means he is only down 5 west of Harrisburg.
Now Im not saying that PA is wrong and OH is right on that poll. Im saying that if the PA numbers are right, which they could very well be than Obama will win Ohio by about 9-10 points. The early tell on E-day in PA will be Luzerne County. If McCain is under 50 there, its over. If he is at 52 or higher, it will be a nailbiter, if he gets to 55 Barry is in trouble.
National Tracking Polls
ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 52 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +1
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 50 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +1
Diageo/Hotline
Obama 49 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +1
Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 51 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +2
Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 51 McCain 44 - Trend Unchanged
Likely Voters -Traditional:
Obama 49 McCain 46 - Trend Obama +1
GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 46 -Trend Unchanged
IBD/TIPP
Obama 47 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +1
Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 47 - Trend McCain +2
Zogby
Obama 49 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +1
National Polls
Ipsos/McClatchey 10/23-10/27
Obama 48 McCain 43
Harris 10/20-10/27
Obama 50 McCain 44
State Tracking Polls
Pennsylvania - Morning Call/Muhlenberg
Obama 53 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +1
State Polls
Florida - LA Times/Bloomberg 10/24-10/27
Obama 50 McCain 43
Florida - Quinnipiac 10/22-10/26
Obama 47 McCain 45
Florida - AP 10/22-10/26
Obama 45 McCain 43
Florida - CNN/Time 10/23-10/28
Obama 51 McCain 47
Ohio - LA Times/Bloomberg 10/24-10/27
Obama 49 McCain 40
Ohio - Quinnipiac 10/22-10/26
Obama 51 McCain 42
Ohio - AP 10/22-10/26
Obama 48 McCain 41
Ohio - Marist 10/24-10/26
Obama 48 McCain 45
Pennsylvania - Quinnipiac 10/22-10/26
Obama 53 McCain 41
Pennsylvania - AP 10/22-10/26
Obama 50 McCain 42
Pennsylvania - Franklin and Marshall 10/21-10/26
Obama 53 McCain 40
Pennsylvania - Marist 10/24-10/26
Obama 55 McCain 41
Washington - SurveyUSA 10/26-10/27
Obama 56 McCain 39
Washington - Strategic Vision 10/25-10/26
Obama 54 McCain 42
Arizona - Arizona State University 10/23-10/26
McCain 46 Obama 44
Indiana - Hower/Gauge 10/23-10/24
McCain 47 Obama 45
Colorado - AP 10/22-10/26
Obama 50 McCain 41
Colorado - CNN/Time 10/23-10/28
Obama 53 McCain 45
Nevada - AP 10/22-10/26
Obama 52 McCain 40
New Hampshire - AP 10/22-10/26
Obama 55 McCain 37
North Carolina - AP 10/22-10/26
Obama 48 McCain 46
Virginia - AP 10/22-10/26
Obama 49 McCain 42
Virginia - CNN/Time 10/23-10/28
Obama 53 McCain 44
Georgia - CNN/Time 10/23-10/28
McCain 52 Obama 47
Missouri - CNN/Time 10/23-10/28
McCain 50 Obama 48
Alaska - Rasmussen 10/28
McCain 57 Obama 41
Michigan - Rasmussen 10/28
Obama 53 McCain 43
Minnesota - Rasmussen 10/28
Obama 55 McCain 43
New Mexico - Rasmussen 10/28
Obama 54 McCain 44
New York - SurveyUSA 10/27-10/28
Obama 62 McCain 33
Wisconsin - Research 2000 10/27-10/28
Obama 53 McCain 42
TheMojoPin
10-29-2008, 02:25 PM
Something is WAY OFF this year. I would look at the RCP average and the daily trackers to see which direction the numbers are headed. Here is where I CANT believe the State polls.
The latest post on 538.com kinda ties in to what you're talking about when it comes to "believing" state polls vs. national polls. (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/myth-of-lag.html)
JerseySean
10-29-2008, 02:56 PM
The latest post on 538.com kinda ties in to what you're talking about when it comes to "believing" state polls vs. national polls. (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/myth-of-lag.html)
Im saying that something is wrong with ALL the polling. Something is off one way or the other, something is wrong
TheMojoPin
10-29-2008, 03:39 PM
Im saying that something is wrong with ALL the polling. Something is off one way or the other, something is wrong
Well, that's incredibly vague.
National Tracking Polls
ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 52 McCain 44 - Trend Unchanged
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 50 McCain 45 - Trend McCain +1
Diageo/Hotline
Obama 48 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +1
Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 50 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +1
Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 51 McCain 44 - Trend Unchanged
Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 50 McCain 45 - Trend Obama +2
GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 46 - Trend Unchanged
IBD/TIPP
Obama 48 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +1
Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 46 - Trend Obama +2
Zogby
Obama 50 McCain 43 - Trend Obama +2
National Polls
FOX News 10/28-10/29
Obama 47 McCain 44
Economist 10/25-10/27
Obama 49 McCain 42
State Tracking Polls
Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 54 McCain 41 - Trend Obama +2
State Polls
Arizona - CNN/Time 10/23-10/28
McCain 53 Obama 46
Arizona - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/27-10/28
McCain 48 Obama 44
Nevada - CNN/Time 10/23-10/28
Obama 52 McCain 45
North Carolina = CNN/Time 10/23-10/28
Obama 52 McCain 46
North Carolina - National Journal 10/23-10/27
Obama 47 McCain 43
North Carolina - Rasmussen 10/29
Obama 50 McCain 48
Ohio - CNN/Time 10/23-10/28
Obama 51 McCain 47
Ohio - National Journal 10/23-10/27
Obama 48 McCain 41
Pennsylvania - CNN/Time 10/23-10/28
Obama 55 McCain 43
Pennsylvania - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/27-10/28
Obama 47 McCain 43
Minnesota - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/27-10/28
Obama 48 McCain 40
Minnesota - Minnesota Public Radio 10/24-10/28
Obama 56 McCain 37
Indiana - Selzer 10/26-10/28
Obama 46 McCain 45
Indiana - Rasmussen 10/28-10/29
McCain 49 Obama 46
New Jersey - Research 2000 10/26-10/28
Obama 54 McCain 38
Texas - University of Texas 10/15-10/22
McCain 51 Obama 40
South Carolina - NBC 10/25-10/28
McCain 53 Obama 42
Colorado - Marist 10/26-10/28
Obama 51 McCain 45
Colorado - National Journal 10/23-10/27
Obama 48 McCain 44
Virginia - Marist 10/26-10/28
Obama 51 McCain 47
Virginia - National Journal 10/23-10/27
Obama 48 McCain 41
Florida - National Journal 10/23-10/27
Obama 45 McCain 44
Idaho - Harstad 10/19-10/22
McCain 55 Obama 32
Kentucky - Rasmussen 10/29
McCain 55 Obama 43
Montana - Rasmussen 10/29
McCain 50 Obama 46
Alabama - SurveyUSA 10/27-10/28
McCain 61 Obama 36
Massachusetts - SurveyUSA 10/27-10/28
Obama 56 McCain 39
I ask that the Fox News polls be questioned from this point on for this reason: (Kudos to Andrew Sullivan for the data (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/how-fox-mislead.html))
Last Thursday's poll was 49-40 Obama.
Yesterday's poll was 47-44 Obama.
Why the trouble?
Thursday's poll used:
Democrats 401, ±5 percentage points; Republicans 345, ±5; independents 148, ±8 Obama supporters 462, ±5; McCain supporters 370, ±5
Last week's poll used:
Democrat LV 379, ±5; Republican LV 364, ±5; independent LV 146, ±8, Obama supporters LV 439, ±5; McCain supporters LV 405, ±5
See what they did? They shifted the matrix by approximately 6% and got a 6% different result. They are obviously fucking with their sample data to get the results they want.
National Polls
CBS/NY Times 10/25-10/29
Obama 52 McCain 41
State Polls
Iowa - SurveyUSA 10/28-10/29
Obama 55 McCain 40
New Hampshire - Suffolk 10/27-10/29
Obama 53 McCain 40
hammersavage
10-30-2008, 06:30 PM
If that CBS/NYT poll is accurate, I'll blow you HBox.
celery
10-30-2008, 08:03 PM
If that CBS/NYT poll is accurate, I'll blow you HBox.
Hell, I'll blow Big A and give Crazed a vroom vroom.
IMSlacker
10-30-2008, 08:07 PM
I ask that the Fox News polls be questioned from this point on for this reason: (Kudos to Andrew Sullivan for the data (http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/10/how-fox-mislead.html))
Last Thursday's poll was 49-40 Obama.
Yesterday's poll was 47-44 Obama.
Why the trouble?
Thursday's poll used:
Last week's poll used:
See what they did? They shifted the matrix by approximately 6% and got a 6% different result. They are obviously fucking with their sample data to get the results they want.
From Nate Silver's polling update today: (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/todays-polls-1030.html)
It's true that FOX's sample included a materially higher percentage of Republicans this time around. FOX, however, does not choose its sample; its sample chooses itself. In this case, when they drew their ping-pong balls out of the jar, they came up with a slightly higher percentage of red ones. This kind of thing will happen all the time unless a pollster weights by party ID, which FOX News and many other pollsters do not. The Pew poll that came out the other day, for instance, had a big increase in the number of Democrats in its sample.
celery
10-30-2008, 08:27 PM
I trust Fox News' poll about as much as I trust 7-11's (http://www.7-election.com/).
hammersavage
10-30-2008, 08:55 PM
If that 7-11 poll is accurate, I'll blow you celery.
National Tracking Polls
ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 53 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +1
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 45 - Trend Obama +1
Diageo/Hotline
Obama 48 McCain 41 - Trend Obama +1
Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 52 McCain 41 - Trend Obama +3
Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 52 McCain 43 - Trend Obama +2
Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 51 McCain 43 - Trend Obama +3
GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 45 - Trend Obama +1
IBD/TIPP
Obama 48 McCain 44 - Trend Unchanged
Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 47 - Trend McCain +1
Zogby
Obama 50 McCain 43 - Trend Unchanged
National Polls
Marist 10/29
Obama 50 McCain 43
State Polls
Colorado - Public Policy Polling 10/28-10/30
Obama 54 McCain 44
Colorado - ARG 10/28-10/30
Obama 52 McCain 45
Michigan - Public Policy Polling 10/28-10/30
Obama 55 McCain 43
Michigan - Strategic Vision 10/27-10/29
Obama 54 McCain 41
Michigan - EPIC/MRA 10/26-10/28
Obama 50 McCain 38
New Mexico - Public Policy Polling 10/28-10/30
Obama 58 McCain 41
Minnesota - Public Policy Polling 10/28-10/30
Obama 57 McCain 41
Oregon - Public Policy Polling 10/28-10/30
Obama 57 McCain 42
West Virginia - Public Policy Polling 10/28-10/30
McCain 55 Obama 42
New Jersey - FDU 10/23-10/29
Obama 53 McCain 35
New Jersey - SurveyUSA 10/29-10/30
Obama 52 McCain 42
New Hampshire - Strategic Vision 10/27-10/29
Obama 50 McCain 41
New Hampshire - Research 2000 10/28-10/30
Obama 51 McCain 44
New Hampshire - SurveyUSA 10/29-10/30
Obama 53 McCain 42
New Hampshire - ARG 10/28-10/30
Obama 56 McCain 41
New Hampshire - Rasmussen 10/30
Obama 51 McCain 44
Pennsylvania - Strategic Vision 10/27-10/29
Obama 49 McCain 44
Indiana - SurveyUSA 10/27-10/30
McCain 47 Obama 47
Arizona - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/28-10/30
McCain 48 Obama 47
Arizona - ARG 10/28-10/30
McCain 50 Obama 46
Missouri - ARG 10/28-10/30
Obama 48 McCain 48
Missouri - Insider Advantage/Politico
McCain 50 Obama 47
Montana - ARG 10/28-10/30
McCain 49 Obama 46
Montana - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/28-10/30
McCain 48 Obama 44
Alaska - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/28-10/30
McCain 59 Obama 39
Georgia - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/28-10/30
McCain 47 Obama 44
Georgia - Rasmussen 10/30
McCain 52 Obama 47
North Dakota - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/28-10/29
McCain 47 Obama 46
North Carolina - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/30
Obama 47 McCain 45
North Carolina - Insider Advantage/Politico
Obama 48 McCain 48
Mississippi - Rasmussen 10/30
McCain 53 Obama 40
Wisconsin - University of Wisconsin 10/21-10/28
Obama 52 McCain 42
National Tracking Polls
ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 53 McCain 44 - Trend Unchanged
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +1
Diageo/Hotline
Obama 51 McCain 44 - Trend Unchanged
Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 52 McCain 41 - Trend Unchanged
Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 52 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +1
Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 52 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +2
IBD/TIPP
Obama 48 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +1
Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 46 - Trend Obama +1
Zogby
Obama 49 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +2
State Tracking Polls
Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 52 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +5
State Polls
Wyoming - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/27-10/29
McCain 61 Obama 36
Minnesota - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/27-10/29
Obama 53 McCain 38
Kentucky - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/27-10/29
McCain 56 Obama 39
Oregon - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/27-10/29
Obama 55 McCain 39
Oregon - Rasmussen 10/30
Obama 54 McCain 42
Cailfornia - SurveyUSA 10/29-10/31
Obama 60 McCain 36
Arkansas - ARG 10/28-10/31
McCain 51 Obama 44
Florida - ARG 10/28-10/31
Obama 50 McCain 46
Florida - Datamar 10/29-10/30
McCain 47 Obama 47
Florida - Mason-Dixon 10/29-10/30
Obama 47 McCain 45
Indiana - ARG 10/28-10/31
Obama 48 McCain 48
Pennsylvania - ARG 10/28-10/31
Obama 51 McCain 45
Pennsylvania - Rasmussen 10/30
Obama 51 McCain 47
South Dakota - Rasmussen 10/30
McCain 53 Obama 44
National Tracking Polls
ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 54 McCain 43 - Trend Obama +2
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 44 - Trend Unchanged
Diageo/Hotline
Obama 50 McCain 45 - Trend McCain +2
Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 52 McCain 41 - Trend Unchanged
Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 52 McCain 43 - Trend McCain +1
Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 51 McCain 43 - Trend McCain +2
IBD/TIPP
Obama 47 McCain 45 - Trend McCain +4
Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 46 - Trend Unchanged
Zogby
Obama 50 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +1
National Polls
CBS News/NY Times 10/30-10/31
Obama 54 McCain 41
Pew 10/29-11/1
Registered Voters:
Obama 50 McCain 39
Likely Voters:
Obama 49 McCain 42
Likely Voters with undecideds allocated:
Obama 52 McCain 46
State Tracking Polls
Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 52 McCain 45 - Trend McCain +1
State Polls
Pennsylvania - Rasmussen 11/1
Obama 52 McCain 46
Pennsylvania - SurveyUSA 10/31
Obama 51 McCain 44
Pennsylvania - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/28-10/29
Obama 47 McCain 43
Washington - University of Washington 10/27-10/31
Obama 51 McCain 39
New Jersey - Monmouth University 10/29-10/31
Obama 55 McCain 34
Utah - Deseret 10/24-10/30
McCain 57 Obama 32
Ohio - Ohio University 10/12-10/23
Obama 57 McCain 41
Ohio - Columbus Dispatch 10/22-10/31
Obama 52 McCain 46
Ohio - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/28-10/29
McCain 47 Obama 45
Iowa - Des Moines Register/Selzer 10/28-10/31
Obama 54 McCain 37
Nevada - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/28-10/29
Obama 47 McCain 43
Colorado - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/28-10/29
Obama 49 McCain 44
Missouri - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/28-10/29
McCain 47 Obama 46
Florida - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/28-10/29
Obama 47 McCain 45
North Carolina - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/28-10/29
McCain 49 Obama 46
Virginia - NBC News/Mason-Dixon 10/28-10/29
Obama 47 McCain 44
Virginia - SurveyUSA 10/30-11/1
Obama 50 McCain 46
Kentucky - Courier Journal/Mason-Dixon 10/28-10/29
McCain 53 Obama 41
Kentucky - SurveyUSA 10/29-11/1
McCain 56 Obama 40
New Mexico - Albuquerque Journal
Obama 51 McCain 43
Minnesota - Star Tribune 10/29-10/31
Obama 53 McCain 42
Illinois - Rasmussen 11/1
Obama 60 McCain 38
Maine - Rasmussen 11/1
Obama 56 McCain 43
National Tracking Polls
ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 53 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +2
Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 45 - Trend McCain +1
Diageo/Hotline
Obama 50 McCain 45 - Trend Unchanged
Gallup
Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 53 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +2
Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 53 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +3
GWU/Battleground
Obama 50 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +2
IBD/TIPP
Obama 48 McCain 43 - Trend Obama +3
Rasmussen
Obama 52 McCain 46 - Trend Obama +1
Zogby
Obama 51 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +1
National Polls
NBC News/Wall Street Journal 11/1-11/2
Obama 51 McCain 43
Democracy Corps 10/30-11/2
Obama 51 McCain 44
Marist 11/2
Obama 53 McCain 44
FOX News 11/1-11/2
Obama 50 McCain 43
CBS News/NY Times 10/31-11/2
Obama 51 McCain 42
State Tracking Polls
Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 52 McCain 46 - Trend McCain +1
State Polls
Virginia - Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2
Obama 52 McCain 46
Virginia - FOX News/Rasmussen 11/2
Obama 51 McCain 47
Virginia - Zogby 11/2
Obama 51 McCain 45
Pennsylvania - Rasmussen 11/1
Obama 52 McCain 46
Pennsylvania - Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2
Obama 53 McCain 45
Pennsylvania - Quinnipiac 10/27-11/2
Obama 52 McCain 42
Pennsylvania - Strategic Vision 10/31-11/2
Obama 51 McCain 44
Pennsylvania - Zogby 11/2
Obama 54 McCain 40
Minnesota - SurveyUSA 10/30-11/1
Obama 49 McCain 46
Ohio - Public Policy Polling 10/30-11/2
Obama 50 McCain 48
Ohio - Quinnipiac 10/27-11/2
Obama 50 McCain 43
Ohio - University of Cincinnati 10/29-11/2
Obama 52 McCain 46
Ohio - SurveyUSA 10/30-11/2
Obama 48 McCain 46
Ohio - Strategic Vision 10/31-11/2
McCain 48 Obama 46
Ohio - FOX News/Rasmussen 11/2
Obama 49 McCain 49
Ohio - Zogby 11/2
Obama 50 McCain 44
North Carolina - Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2
Obama 50 McCain 49
North Carolina - SurveyUSA 10/30-11/2
McCain 49 Obama 48
North Carolina - FOX News?Rasmussen 11/2
McCain 50 Obama 49
North Carolina - Zogby 11/2
McCain 48 Obama 47
Montana - Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2
Obama 48 McCain 47
Florida - Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2
Obama 50 McCain 48
Florida - Qunnipiac 10/27-11/2
Obama 47 McCain 45
Florida - Strategic Vision 10/31-11/2
Obama 49 McCain 47
Florida - FOX News/Rasmussen 11/2
McCain 50 Obama 49
Florida - Zogby 11/2
Obama 48 McCain 46
Georgia - Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2
McCain 50 Obama 48 Barr 2
Georgia - Strategic Vision 10/31-11/2
McCain 50 Obama 46 Barr 1
Georgia - SurveyUSA 10/30-11/2
McCain 52 Obama 45
Missouri - SurveyUSA 10/30-11/2
McCain 48 Obama 48
Missouri - Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2
Obama 49 McCain 49
Missouri - FOX News/Rasmussen 11/2
Obama 49 McCain 49
Missouri - Zogby 11/2
Obama 48 McCain 46
Alaska - Hays Research 11/2
McCain 47 Obama 44
Washington - Strategic Vision 10/31-11/2
Obama 55 McCain 40
Wisconsin - Strategic Vision 10/31-11/2
Obama 53 McCain 40
Indiana - Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2
Obama 49 McCain 48
Indiana - Zogby 11/2
McCain 49 Obama 44
Nevada - Public Policy Polling 10/31-11/2
Obama 51 McCain 47
Nevada - Zogby
Obama 51 McCain 43
Colorado - FOX News/Rasmussen 11/2
Obama 51 McCain 47
New Jersey - Rasmussen 11/2
Obama 57 McCain 42
Maine - SurveyUSA 11/1
Obama 58 McCain 38
I think I will miss you, 2008 Election Polling Thread, most of all.
http://i265.photobucket.com/albums/ii238/silvermachine38/monkey-pigeon.jpg
National Tracking Polls
Alaska - Hays Research 11/2
McCain 47 Obama 44
Wait...what?
Wait...what?
Here's a link. (http://www.haysresearch.com/OC110208.htm)
I'm going to spend sometime tomorrow pulling together the 538.com predictions and polling averages and compare them to the actual results just to satisfy my own curiosity. I'll post what I have here when I'm done.
TheMojoPin
11-04-2008, 09:36 PM
That'll be a nice capper to this thread. I'm gonna start merging and closing some of the election threads down so that this forum and the new threads page aren't so cluttered.
PapaBear
11-04-2008, 09:41 PM
That'll be a nice capper to this thread. I'm gonna start merging and closing some of the election threads down so that this forum and the new threads page aren't so cluttered.
Godspeed, soldier.
ALASKA
Actual Results: McCain 62 Obama 36
538 Projection: McCain 56 Obama 42
Pollster.com Average: McCain 56 Obama 40
RCP Average: McCain 56 Obama 41
Last 3 polls:
Hays Research - McCain 47 Obama 44
ARG - McCain 55 Obama 43
Research 2000 - McCain 58 Obama 39
Considering Ted Stevens re-election the pollsters obvious under represented Republicans in Alaska. It looks like Research 2000 was closest.
ALABAMA
Actual Results: McCain 61 Obama 39
538: McCain 61 Obama 39
Pollster.com: McCain 59 Obama 36
RCP: McCain 57 Obama 34
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - McCain 61 Obama 36
YouGov - McCain 57 Obama 39
Capital Survey - McCain 54 Obama 34
538 perfetly nailed it, everyone else was pretty close. They all pretty much nailed the margin of victory.
Arkansas
Actual Results: McCain 59 Obama 39
538 Projection: McCain 55 Obama 44
Pollster.com: McCain 52 Obama 42
RCP: McCain 52 Obama 43
Last 3 polls:
ARG - McCain 51 Obama 44
Rasmussen - McCain 54 Obama 44
YouGov - McCain 53 Obama 41
Another red state where Obama's performance was consistently over represented. I wonder if this will be a trend. Both Alaska and Arkansas didn't have much polling, however.
Arizona
Actual Results: McCain 54 Obama 45
538: McCain 51 Obama 46
Pollster.com: McCain 49 Obama 44
RCP: McCain 49 Obama 46
Last 3 polls:
ARG - McCain 50 Obama 46
Research 2000 - McCain 48 Obama 47
Mason-Dixon - McCain 48 Obama 44
Another red state with little polling, another place where McCain overperformed. However, Arizona did see a late surge in polling and they all had it much closer than reality.
California
Actual Results: Obama 61 McCain 37
538: Obama 59 McCain 39
Pollster.com: Obama 56 McCain 37
RCP: Obama 59 McCain 34
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - Obama 60 McCain 36
YouGov - Obama 55 McCain 40
Rasmussen - Obama 61 McCain 34
Everyone was in or close to the margin of error. Not much shock here although they misjudged Prop 8.
Colorado
Actual Results: Obama 53 McCain 46
538: Obama 53 McCain 46
Pollster.com: Obama 52 McCain 44
RCP: Obama 51 McCain 45
Last 3 polls:
Rasmussen - Obama 51 McCain 47
PPP - Obama 54 McCain 44
Mason-Dixon - Obama 49 McCain 44
538 again nails it exactly. Everyone else was very close.
Connecticut
Actual Results: Obama 60 McCain 39
538: Obama 59 McCain 39
Pollster.com: Obama 57 McCain 36
RCP: Obama 55 McCain 56
Last 3 polls:
YouGov - Obama 58 McCain 37
UCONN - Obama 56 McCain 36
Rasmussen - Obama 56 McCain 39
Not the hardest state to call, and everyone was pretty close to the margin and 538 almost exactly nails it.
District Of Columbia
Actualy Results: Obama 93 McCain 7
Just for laughs.
Delaware
Obama 61 McCain 38
538: Obama 62 McCain 37
Pollster.com: Obama 61 McCain 36
RCP: Obama 58 McCain 37
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - Obama 63 McCain 33
YouGov - Obama 59 McCain 37
Rasmussen - Obama 56 McCain 41
Not much here either. 538 just a point off.
Florida
Actual Results: Obama 51 McCain 49
538: Obama 50 McCain 48
Pollster.com: Obama 49 McCain 47
RCP: Obama 49 McCain 47
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - Obama 50 McCain 47
Rasmussen - McCain 50 Obama 49
Zogby - Obama 49 McCain 48
538 again very close. The polls were again very close. In a race this close there will be some with McCain is ahead since it was within the margin of error. Of the last 17 Florida polls Obama led 14, McCain 2 and one was tied. Florida, for once, went smoothly and as expected.
Georgia
Actual Results: McCain 52 Obama 47
538: McCain 51 Obama 48
Pollster.com: McCain 50 Obama 47
RCP: Obama 50 McCain 46
Last 3 polls:
Insider Advantage: McCain 48 Obama 47
SurveyUSA - McCain 52 Obama 45
PPP - McCain 50 McCain 48
One caveat: the total vote count here was much lower than expected. There may be a lot of outstanding early votes. All they could do however is push the Senate race into a runoff and shrink the margin. As it is it looks like most polls overstated Obama's late surge very slightly.
Hawaii
Actual Results: Obama 72 McCain 27
There wasn't enough polling here to make any useful projection.
Iowa
Actual Results: Obama 54 McCain 45
538: Obama 55 McCain 43
Pollster.com: Obama 53 McCain 41
RCP: Obama 54 McCain 39
Last 3 polls:
Selzer - Obama 54 McCain 37
SurveyUSA - Obama 55 McCain 40
Research 2000 - Obama 53 McCain 39
The polls seem to have universally over-estimated Obama's support here, though his lead was still huge as it is. 538 again very close.
Idaho
Actual Results: McCain 62 Obama 36
Not enough polls.
Illinois
Actual Results: Obama 62 McCain 37
538: Obama 60 McCain 38
Pollster.com: Obama 60 McCain 37
RCP: Obama 59 McCain 34
Last 3 polls:
Rasmussen - Obama 60 McCain 38
YouGov - Obama 59 McCain 38
Research 2000 - Obama 59 McCain 35
Looks like Obama overperformed slightly. I think after all this I'm going to go back and see if McCain overperformed in the deep red states and Obama overperformed in the deep blue.
Indiana
Actual Results: Obama 50 McCain 49
538: McCain 50 Obama 48
Pollster.com: McCain 48 Obama 47
RCP: McCain 48 Obama 46
Last 3 polls:
Zogby - McCain 50 Obama 45
PPP - Obama 49 McCain 48
ARG - McCain 48 Obama 48
The big shock of the election. Looks like Public Policy Polling nailed it with their last poll, and Selzer had this close all along and with Obama ahead at the end.
Kansas
Actual Results: McCain 57 Obama 41
538: McCain 56 Obama 42
Pollster.com: McCain 56 Obama 39
RCP: no average
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - McCain 58 Obama 37
YouGov - McCain 52 Obama 41
Rasmussen - Obama 54 McCain 41
No shocks here.
Kentucky
Actual Results: McCain 58 Obama 41
538: McCain 56 Obama 42
Pollster.com: McCain 54 Obama 41
RCP: McCain 55 Obama 41
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - McCain 56 Obama 40
Rasmussen - McCain 55 Obama 43
Mason-Dixon - McCain 51 Obama 42
This went as expected, although there was some slight tightening late in the polls that didn't materialize.
Louisiana
Actual Results: McCain 59 Obama 40
538: McCain 54 Obama 44
Pollster.com: McCain 52 Obama 42
RCP: no average
Last 3 polls:
Loyola - Mccain 43 Obama 40
YouGov - McCain 52 Obama 45
Rasmussen - 57 Obama 41
More overstating of Obama's support, but there wasn't much polling here. Rasmussen came closest.
Maine
Actual Results: Obama 58 McCain 40
538:Obama 56 McCain 42
Pollster.com: Obama 55 McCain 38
RCP: Obama 54 McCain 38
Last 3 polls:
Rasmussen - Obama 56 McCain 43
SurveyUSA - Obama 58 McCain 38
YouGov - Obama 51 McCain 42
Some more under-estimation of Obama's support.
Maryland
Actual Results: Obama 61 McCain 38
Not much polling.
Massachusetts
Actual Results: Obama 63 McCain 36
538: Obama 59 McCain 39
Pollster.com: Obama 57 McCain 37
RCP: Obama 57 Obama 36
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - Obama 56 McCain 39
YouGov - Obama 57 McCain 39
Suffolk - Obama 53 McCain 34
Fairly significant under-estimation of Obama's support here.
Michigan
Actual Results: Obama 57 McCain 41
538: Obama 55 McCain 43
Pollster.com: Obama 54 McCain 39
RCP: Obama 53 McCain 39
Last 3 polls:
Selzer: Obama 53 McCain 37
PPP: Obama 53 McCain 40
Strategic Vision: Obama 54 McCain 41
Everyone was pretty close here, if a bit under-estimating Obama's support.
Minnesota
Actual Results: Obama 54 McCain 44
538: Obama 54 McCain 44
Pollster.com: Obama 53 McCain 41
RCP: Obama 52 McCain 42
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - Obama 49 McCain 46
Star Tribune - Obama 53 McCain 42
PPP - Obama 57 McCain 41
538 gets another perfect projection.
Missouri
Actual Results: McCain 50 Obama 49
538: McCain 49.4 Obama 49.2
Pollster.com: Obama 48 McCain 47
RCP: McCain 49 Obama 48
Last 3 polls:
Rasmussen - McCain 49 Obama 49
Zogby - McCain 49 Obama 49
PPP - Obama 50 McCain 49
This was the closest race in the nation, as the polls suggested. It seemed like McCain had the slightest of edges and that's how it turned out.
Mississippi
Actual Results: McCain 57 Obama 43
538: McCain 55 Obama 43
Pollster.com: McCain 52 Obama 42
RCP: McCain 51 Obama 39
Last 3 polls:
Research 2000 - McCain 53 Obama 40
Rasmussen - McCain 53 Obama 45
YouGov - McCain 55 Obama 42
Another deep red state where McCain was under-estimated.
Montana
Actual Results: McCain 50 Obama 47
538: McCain 50 Obama 48
Pollster.com: McCain 48 Obama 46
RCP: McCain 49 Obama 45
Last 3 polls:
PPP - Obama 48 McCain 47
Rasmussen - McCain 50 Obama 48
Research 2000 - McCain 48 Obama 44
Polls were pretty accurate here.
North Carolina
Actual Results: Obama 50 McCain 49
538: Obama 50 McCain 49
Pollster.com: Obama 48.8 McCain 48.4
RCP: McCain 48.4 Obama 48
Last 3 polls:
Rasmussen - McCain 50 Obama 49
Zogby - McCain 49.5 Obama 49.1
ARG - Obama 49 McCain 48
This still hasn't been officially called. But this ended up as close as it seemed in the polls.
North Dakota
Actual Results: McCain 53 Obama 45
Not much polling here. Looks like Obama's hopes here were misplaced.
Nebraska
Actual Results: McCain 57 Obama 41
Not much polling here. Obama didn't pull out district 2.
New Hampshire
Actual Results: Obama 55 McCain 44
538: Obama 54 McCain 44
Pollster.com: Obama 53 McCain 41
RCP: Obama 53 McCain 42
Last 3 polls:
UNH: Obama 54 McCain 39
SurveyUSA - Obama 53 McCain 42
Rasmussen - Obama 51 McCain 44
The polling here was decent, not nearly the disaster it was in the NH primary.
New Jersey
Actual Results: Obama 57 McCain 42
538: Obama 56 McCain 42
Pollster.com: Obama 54 McCain 39
RCP: Obama 55 McCain 39
Last 3 polls:
Rasmussen - 57 McCain 42
SurveyUSA - Obama 52 McCain 42
Monmouth - Obama 55 McCain 34
Congrats to Rasmussen for perfectly nailing NJ in their last poll.
New Mexico
Actual Results: Obama 57 McCain 42
538: Obama 55 McCain 45
Pollster.com: Obama 53 McCain 44
RCP: Obama 50 McCain 43
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA: Obama 52 McCain 45
PPP - Obama 58 McCain 41
Albuquerque Journal - Obama 51 McCain 43
This looks like the one state where one candidate overperformed the most. Polls on average showed some tightening in the last week which showed itself to be totally unfounded. But the actual margin matched what looked to be the highest outlier polls on the Obama side.
Nevada
Actual Results: Obama 55 McCain 43
538: Obama 52 McCain 47
Pollster.com: Obama 51 McCain 44
RCP: Obama 50 McCain 44
Last 3 polls:
Zogby - Obama 53 McCain 42
ARG - Obama 52 McCain 47
PPP - Obama 51 McCain 47
Jsut as I write about New Mexico above here comes Nevada. it looked to be very close and probably through the strength of early voting Obama really runs up the score here. Republicans need to be extremely concerned about the Southwest because right now it looks far out of reach for Republicans.
New York
Actual Results: Obama 62 McCain 37
538: Obama 62 McCain 37
Pollster.com: Obama 60 McCain 35
RCP: Obama 62 McCain 32
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - Obama 62 McCain 33
YouGov - Obama 58 McCain 38
Marist - Obama 65 McCain 29
As expected.
Ohio
Actual Results: Obama 52 McCain 47
538: Obama 51 McCain 47
Pollster.com: Obama 49 McCain 46
RCP: Obama 49 McCain 46
Last 3 polls:
Rasmussen - Obama 49 McCain 49
PPP - Obama 50 McCain 48
Strategic Vision - McCain 48 Obama 46
Obama really overpeformed here. Ohio won it for him. Though 538 again got really close.
Oklahoma
Actual Results: Obama 66 McCain 34
Who cares about Oklahoma?
Oregon
Actual Results: Obama 55 McCain 42
Oregon is entirely mail-in voting, so they are only up to 67% reporting.
Pennsylvania
Actual Results: Obama 55 McCain 44
538: Obama 53 McCain 45
Pollster.com: Obama 52 McCain 44
RCP: Obama 51 McCain 44
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - Obama 52 McCain 43
Zogby - Obama 51 McCain 41
PPP - Obama 53 McCain 45
McCain obviously made a mistake concentrating here. All that tightening in the last week was a mirage. And even if it wasn't that would have equaled something like a 52-46 margin and I'm being generous here.
Rhode Island
Actual Results: Obama 63 McCain 35
Not much polling here.
South Carolina
Actual Results: McCain 54 Obama 45
538: McCain 54 Obama 45
Pollster.com: McCain 52 Obama 44
RCP: McCain 53 Obama 43
Last 3 polls:
SurveyUSA - McCain 52 Obama 44
PSRA - McCain 53 Obama 42
YouGov - McCain 52 Obama 44
As expected.
South Dakota
Actual Results: Obama 53 McCain 45
Exactly the same margin and numbers as North Dakota. They oughta just join up.
Tennessee
Actual Results: McCain 57 Obama 42
538: McCain 56 Obama 43
Pollster.com: McCain 54 Obama 42
RCP: McCain 53 Obama 39
Last 3 polls:
YouGov - McCain 53 Obama 44
Research 2000 - McCain 54 Obama 38
Rasmussen - McCain 54 Obama 42
As expected.
Texas
Actual Results: McCain 56 Obama 44
538: McCain 55 Obama 45
Pollster.com: McCain 55 Obama 42
RCP: McCAin 54 Obama 41
Last 3 polls:
YouGov - McCain 54 Obama 43
Rasmussen - McCain 54 Obama 44
U of Texas - Mccain 51 Obama 40
McCain overperformed here a bit.
Utah
Actual Results: McCain 63 Obama 34
MormonLand update. As an aside fuck them for funding Prop 8. Fuck them right through their magical underwear.
Virginia
Actual Results: Obama 52 McCain 47
538: Obama 52 McCain 47
Pollster.com: Obama 51 McCain 45
RCP: Obama 50 McCain 46
Last 3 polls:
Rasmussen - Obama 51 McCain 47
ARG - Obama 51 McCain 47
Zogby - Obama 52 McCain 47
At first this looked liek McCain's best hope, the one toss up where he was overperforming. It just turned out that McCain's precincts nearly all reported early and nearly all Obama's precincts reported late. In the end Virginia turned out exactly as expected.
Vermont
Actual Results: Obama 67 McCain 37
Not much polling.
Washington
Actual Results: Obama 57 McCain 41
For some reason Washington is only 57% reported.
Wisconsin
Actual Results: Obama 56 McCain 43
538: Obama 55 McCain 43
Pollster.com: Obama 53 McCain 41
RCP: Obama 53 McCain 42
Last 3 polls:
Strategic Vision - Obama 53 McCain 40
SurveyUSA - Obama 55 McCain 38
Research 2000 - Obama 53 McCain 42
Polling very accurate again.
West Virginia
Actual Results: McCain 56 Obama 43
538: McCain 54 Obama 44
Pollster.com: McCain 54 Obama 42
RCP: McCain 51 Obama 42
Last 3 polls:
ARG - McCain 53 Obama 42
PPP - McCain 55 Obama 42
Zogby - McCain 50 Obama 40
No comment here except to award the Zogby interactive award for most ridiculous outlier to ARG's October 6th poll showing Obama up 8 in West Virginia.
Wyoming
Actual Results: McCain 65 Obama 33
I still say we should cut Wyoming out of the mainland and drop it into the Arctic Sea for giving us Dick Cheney.
TheMojoPin
11-05-2008, 01:39 PM
And that's the end of my poll, DONK.
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