The next to go, place your bets!

[Freitag]

OK gang, after KHBNick said the market would only be down 185 points yesterday, let's see who can accurately predict who will be the next to go down!

[Furtherman]

I'm picking AIG. The latest I've heard is that they're over the wire, they're down, and no medic heeds their call.

[Tallman388]

I voted WaMu, not that they'll fall apart, but they'll get taken over by a bank that can sort out their mess.

[JPMNICK]

i am going WaMu, they are in serious shit

[Freakshow]

I still can't figure out why WaMu advertises in my area. They're aren't even close.

[Freitag]

I want to add that I think AIG will merge with someone; they won't liquidate like Lehman's. If anything, AIG might start stelling off business units like Citi did earlier this year.

So this isn't about straight up failure - more like merges, acquisitions, etc.

[Thebazile78]

I want to add that I think AIG will merge with someone; they won't liquidate like Lehman's. If anything, AIG might start stelling off business units like Citi did earlier this year.

So this isn't about straight up failure - more like merges, acquisitions, etc.

Buzz today on Lehman is that Barclays is "in talks" to buy the core business.

AIG's credit ratings were downgraded before the NYSE opened this morning and the Fed is in talks with two investment banks (Goldman Sachs & JP Morgan) to create a line of credit so they can stay open. One source was paraphrased as saying that AIG may need to file for bankruptcy.

All I can say is ... the fallout from this is going to make the products on this team very interesting in the next couple of months, pending legislation and reorganization moves. I smell a slew of blue "special alerts" in November & December revenue publications.

[JPMNICK]

this whole shake up will ultimately be a good thing for the country and the economy. it was a runaway train for a while. this will bring everything back down to a better level and kind of re-center lending and banking. also this make a great time to enter the stock market

[Recyclerz]

After everything I've been reading for the last 48 hours or so I don't think they, or we the taxpayers, can afford to let AIG go under unmanaged. Apparently, they have been selling a shit load of "insurance" on these credit risk swaps that these financial playas have been using to cover up the lack of success on their financial alchemy with the base metals of shaky mortgage loans. If AIG just collapses, then all of the insured deals have to be marked down to close to worthless and the whole financial systems shuts down. which will not be good. For anybody. (Except maybe al Qaeda.)

ESD should have claimed that his fecal antics on O&A last week were actually performance art mirroring the current state of Wall St. and the world financial system. :glurps:

[joethebartender]

I'm picking AIG. The latest I've heard is that they're over the wire, they're down, and no medic heeds their call.

Who will sponsor Manchester United??? They'll never make it as a club on their own. I'd call Chico's Bail Bonds if I were them.

http://i2.iofferphoto.com/img/item/459/068/91/MU41LSN7RUa.jpg

[K.C.]

I'd call Chico's Bail Bonds if I were them.


In a couple weeks, Chico's Bail Bonds will be the only...ahem....'financial' instituation left standing.

That Buttermaker was a smart man.

[Earlshog]

this whole shake up will ultimately be a good thing for the country and the economy. it was a runaway train for a while. this will bring everything back down to a better level and kind of re-center lending and banking. also this make a great time to enter the stock market


Long term time will tell, if the past is any indicator things will change and then in five years a new calamity will occur and whole lot of wealthy people will make a whole lot of money just like they will right now.

Short term this is going to have a devastating effect on the New York and NJ ( One third of New Jersey economy depends on Wall Street) economies. The times had an article this morning detailing the following. 23% of income in NYC is to employees of the securities industry. Those jobs pay so well they account for 1/4 the wages paid in the city even though they account for only 1 out of 20 jobs. The Average salary is $280 K Five times higher then the average worker. With Lehman biting the dust it make 35,000 of those jobs lost this year. More loses are coming but lets stick to the 35 K. That's 10 billion that's not going to be spent in the service industry on restaurants, on cars, suits, etc, etc, 10 Billion in tax revenue gone to a city already in finical crisis. Every one of those jobs employees three people in other industries, or another 100,000 of those 56 K average jobs gone (or 5.6 billion out of the economy).

[JPMNICK]

Long term time will tell, if the past is any indicator things will change and then in five years a new calamity will occur and whole lot of wealthy people will make a whole lot of money just like they will right now.

Short term this is going to have a devastating effect on the New York and NJ ( One third of New Jersey economy depends on Wall Street) economies. The times had an article this morning detailing the following. 23% of income in NYC is to employees of the securities industry. Those jobs pay so well they account for 1/4 the wages paid in the city even though they account for only 1 out of 20 jobs. The Average salary is $280 K Five times higher then the average worker. With Lehman biting the dust it make 35,000 of those jobs lost this year. More loses are coming but lets stick to the 35 K. That's 10 billion that's not going to be spent in the service industry on restaurants, on cars, suits, etc, etc, 10 Billion in tax revenue gone to a city already in finical crisis. Every one of those jobs employees three people in other industries, or another 100,000 of those 56 K average jobs gone (or 5.6 billion out of the economy).

i said this in another thread, but these banks going under will finally cause the RE prices to go to down in Manhatten.

[CousinDave]

I don't think any of them will go to liquidation like Lehman Brothers did.

I picked Washington Mutual but only because I believe it'll merge (get taken over) with another bank.

There will probably be a few smaller regional banks that go under.

This is what happens when people buy houses they can't afford and when banks give these people loans, because the govt will back them up.

[Recyclerz]

....
This is what happens when people buy houses they can't afford and when banks give these people loans, because the govt will back them up.

That's how it started but the crisis part stems from the highly leveraged bets the highly trained financial experts made (and lost).

[Freitag]

According to Consumerist, Chase is sniffing at WaMu.

[Don Stugots]

I have business dealings with AiG and for months all the big shots were saying how next years gains would more than make up for the money being lost. At a meeting today, no one said anything about anything and they all had this dead look in their eyes. i told my boss to invoice the hell out of them today, just in case.

[patsopinion]

i dont know about chu guys but this all seems earily simmilar to the period leading up to the great dipression

Wars that we couldnt afford
bad credit practices(buying stocks on credit/houses this time)
not enough food

and in the bay area at least the rash of take over robberies that are happening all the time seem very similar to the bank robers
there are no jobs in california
sorry turn back around


wasnt it this time of year that shit started to hit the hey back then?

[patsopinion]

except this time we cant just create a bank to lend to us, because we havent paid the first one back yet

and i looked it up
october 29
a tuesday
fortunately this year october 29 falls on a wednesday
so theres no way that it could happen again

if you still havent cashed out your 401k and invested heavily in the euro then your fucking nuts

if you start seeing soy and wheat commodities plummeting...
run

[Tenbatsuzen]

And if you picked AIG, pick up your winnings. Sells 80% stake to the government, has to start selling off it's business units.

EXXXXXXXCELLENT.