McCain's Life Expectancy

[Fez4PrezN2008]

Dr. Steve - Seriously - Is John McCain growing a new VP on his cheek?
http://i115.photobucket.com/albums/n293/JBphotojunk/mccain1.jpg

WTF is that and what is the over/under for him kicking it if he takes office?
Please do tell, party affiliation aside, I think we'd all like to know. Thanks.

[Dr Steve]

Dr. Steve - Seriously - Is John McCain growing a new VP on his cheek?

WTF is that and what is the over/under for him kicking it if he takes office?
Please do tell, party affiliation aside, I think we'd all like to know. Thanks.

Ha, I think that's just a crap picture...he just looks a little jowly to me; do you have any other photos of cheek assymetry? I'll look at 'em.

Regarding his life expectancy, the best way to judge this is statistically, and the best way to do that is by using an actuarial table.

Here's one: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1

I'll do the calculation for you, though.

At age 72, John McCain has a 12 year life expectancy. Note that as you get older, your life expectancy actually goes UP (because if you get to a certain age, you've likely not had a ton of heart attacks or advanced cancer, etc., so you're expected to live longer) for awhile, then levels off again. The probability that he will die within one year of taking office is 0.032978, or approximately 3%.

So he's pretty much good to go. The overwhelming odds are that he would indeed complete a four year term, but he's at much higher risk than, say, a 40 year old.

your pal,



Steve

[commish13]

i give him a day, maybe 4

but what do i know

[Drunky McBetidont]

i give him a day, maybe 4

but what do i know

i heard is plan for the first hundred days is to stay alive. he is fucked though because sarah palin will feed him to a killer whale or a polar bear before he finishes his first year. she is a go-getter.

[patsopinion]

wont be an issue

[Knowledged_one]

wont be an issue

you are right, he will be doing 8 years with no problem

[Dr Steve]

you are right, he will be doing 8 years with no problem

wont be an issue


ha ha, did someone say "party affiliation aside?"

:unsure:

[patsopinion]

ha ha, did someone say "party affiliation aside?"

:unsure:


its not party affiliation
its should be common knowledge

[Knowledged_one]

its not party affiliation
its should be common knowledge

whats that, that your opinion sucks?

[MisterSmith]

If McCain is elected: What if it is raining, cold, and miserable on the day of his inauguration but McCain refuses to wear an overcoat and gives a 2 hour inaugural address?

What is his life expectancy then?

[Drunky McBetidont]

i hope he knocks up one of palin's kids before he croaks. gotta spread that seed.

[EliSnow]

I think he's in the process of giving Palin the universal tongue-in-cheek symbol for a blowjob. See how he's raising his right hand to his mouth?

[Judge Smails]

http://i115.photobucket.com/albums/n293/JBphotojunk/mccain1.jpg



I would have captioned it: "I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse."

[mendyweiss]

:thumbup:I would have captioned it: "I'm gonna make him an offer he can't refuse."

[Jujubees2]

Shortly after taking office, President McCain will be invited on a hunting trip with former VP Chaney...

Hello President Palin!

[twotoes]

Better than President Biden!

[GreatAmericanZero]

the thing that concerns me is that every president looks so much older at the end of their terms then at the begining. How can McCain look any older?

[Recyclerz]

Actuarys say he's more than likely to make it through the next eight years.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13096.html

Though with his proposed policies, I'm less confident about the commonweal surviving.

Something to consider, however, is his increasing propensity to get flummoxed in public, like not knowing who the PM of Spain is, although I believe this is due to an uncomfortable W-like ignorance of the facts in geopolitics rather than to a shrinking physical brain capacity.

[GreatAmericanZero]

Actuarys say he's more than likely to make it through the next eight years.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13096.html

Though with his proposed policies, I'm less confident about the commonweal surviving.

Something to consider, however, is his increasing propensity to get flummoxed in public, like not knowing who the PM of Spain is, although I believe this is due to an uncomfortable W-like ignorance of the facts in geopolitics rather than to a shrinking physical brain capacity.

that article is bullshit. We can tell just cuz it goes against all logic that we see in life.

And they mention Obama being a smoker, but McCain was a smoker too. He quit a "two pack a day habit" in 1979. So he was around Obama's age when he quit.

But the fact remains, and its logic no one can argue, McCain is an old man entering into a really stressful, demanding job.

[Recyclerz]

But the fact remains, and its logic no one can argue, McCain is an old man entering into a really stressful, demanding job.

Hey, I'm kicking in money and effort to see that he stays in the Senate, so let's not concede quite yet. :wink:

[Fez4PrezN2008]

Ha, I think that's just a crap picture...he just looks a little jowly to me; do you have any other photos of cheek assymetry? I'll look at 'em.

Regarding his life expectancy, the best way to judge this is statistically, and the best way to do that is by using an actuarial table.

Here's one: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1

I'll do the calculation for you, though.

At age 72, John McCain has a 12 year life expectancy. Note that as you get older, your life expectancy actually goes UP (because if you get to a certain age, you've likely not had a ton of heart attacks or advanced cancer, etc., so you're expected to live longer) for awhile, then levels off again. The probability that he will die within one year of taking office is 0.032978, or approximately 3%.

So he's pretty much good to go. The overwhelming odds are that he would indeed complete a four year term, but he's at much higher risk than, say, a 40 year old.

your pal,



Steve
exhibit A
http://www.heckofaworld.com/media/mccain_cheek.jpg
Exhibit B
http://farm1.static.flickr.com/150/425610520_f3b0aeea40_o.jpg
And exhibit C, this one just for fun
http://mrsensible.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/crazy-mccain.jpg

Dr. Steve - You're the BEST, but clearly something more going on there than just a little jowly - right?

[NewYorkDragons80]

Ha, I think that's just a crap picture...he just looks a little jowly to me; do you have any other photos of cheek assymetry? I'll look at 'em.

Regarding his life expectancy, the best way to judge this is statistically, and the best way to do that is by using an actuarial table.

Here's one: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html#fn1

I'll do the calculation for you, though.

At age 72, John McCain has a 12 year life expectancy. Note that as you get older, your life expectancy actually goes UP (because if you get to a certain age, you've likely not had a ton of heart attacks or advanced cancer, etc., so you're expected to live longer) for awhile, then levels off again. The probability that he will die within one year of taking office is 0.032978, or approximately 3%.

So he's pretty much good to go. The overwhelming odds are that he would indeed complete a four year term, but he's at much higher risk than, say, a 40 year old.

your pal,



Steve
Do you think the stress of the presidency affects that?

[Dr Steve]

exhibit A

Dr. Steve - You're the BEST, but clearly something more going on there than just a little jowly - right?

There is a pretty pronounced assymetry to his face! Weirdly it's in his left cheek, which should be hollow. I think he just has a lopsided face. Weird, though, never noticed it before.

Do you think the stress of the presidency affects that?

absolutely. everyone, except ronald reagan looks 20 years older after 4-8 years of that job. from what I hear, reagan got plenty of sleep and didn't let it all get to him. Of course, the presidency would be nothing compared to what McCain went through as a POW, so that may ameliorate things a bit. Who knows?

[Drunky McBetidont]

There is a pretty pronounced assymetry to his face! Weirdly it's in his left cheek, which should be hollow. I think he just has a lopsided face. Weird, though, never noticed it before.



absolutely. everyone, except ronald reagan looks 20 years older after 4-8 years of that job. from what I hear, reagan got plenty of sleep during cabinet meetings and other important meetings with dignitaries and didn't let it all get to him. Of course, the presidency would be nothing compared to what McCain went through as a POW, so that may ameliorate things a bit. Who knows?

now he can nap forever!!! :thumbup:
http://llamabutchers.mu.nu/archives/gorbachev.jpeg

[Fez4PrezN2008]

Weirdly it's in his left cheek, which should be hollow.
left as in Democratic - Way to go ! Dr. Steve made a funny !








(That's ok, nobody got my campy-no-bacter line either)

[Dr Steve]

(That's ok, nobody got my campy-no-bacter line either)

you made a campylobacter joke? And I missed it? I, for one, would probably find it funny. :smile:

[MisterSmith]

left as in Democratic - Way to go ! Dr. Steve made a funny !


(That's ok, nobody got my campy-no-bacter line either)

Nobody got my William Henry Harrison joke either. :down:

[chili_chest]

I am somewhat sure that these cute anomalies we call out on that side of his face are the result of skin cancer. I think he has had 4 or 5 go arounds with it up till now as I can remember hearing in the news over the years. I think what we are looking at could be built up scar tissue resulting from past surgeries and/or radiation treatments....

If my sources are correct about the cancer, then Im guessing he is in remission bad kind of skin cancer, rather than the one that doctors laugh at as if it were a bug bite or something....

Dr. Steve... any truth to what Im thinking about the scar tissue and such?

[Dr Steve]

I am somewhat sure that these cute anomalies we call out on that side of his face are the result of skin cancer. I think he has had 4 or 5 go arounds with it up till now as I can remember hearing in the news over the years. I think what we are looking at could be built up scar tissue resulting from past surgeries and/or radiation treatments....

If my sources are correct about the cancer, then Im guessing he is in remission bad kind of skin cancer, rather than the one that doctors laugh at as if it were a bug bite or something....

Dr. Steve... any truth to what Im thinking about the scar tissue and such?

Chili:

damn. I really hadn't paid much attention to McCain's skin cancers, assuming they were the sort-of benign "basal cell skin cancers" that we take off all the time. I've only had one patient in my 20+ year career actually die from a basal cell skin cancer.

Researching this, I found that McCain actually had 4 melanomas, the absolutely worst kind of skin cancer you can have. The good news is that each of his were found in STAGE ONE, which means there's little chance of spread to other parts of the body.

I clipped an article from the LA TIMES and reprint some of it here:

McCain’s skin cancers were the deadliest kind
The presumptive GOP nominee has had at least four melanomas, all independent and all caught early. He has had no recurrences, physicians who treated him said.
By Thomas H. Maugh II
May 24, 2008 in print edition A-21

Melanomas like those suffered by Sen. John McCain are more lethal than other types of skin cancers because the pigment-producing melanocytes that produce them are actually not skin cells at all.

Though the basal cells and squamous cells that are responsible for the most common types of skin cancer are integral parts of the skin from the beginning, melanocytes are visitors – nerve cells that are produced in the spinal column during infancy before migrating to the skin.

They are not bound to the skin in the same way that other skin cells are, so when they turn cancerous, they find it very easy to invade a blood vessel or lymph channel and travel to other parts of the body, said Dr. David Peng, director of the Pigmented Lesion Clinic at USC’s Norris Comprehensive Cancer Center.

And it is not the primary tumor that kills a patient, but the metastasis, said Dr. Glen Justice, director of Orange Coast Memorial Hospital Cancer Center in Fountain Valley. The key to curing melanomas is to catch and excise them before they have spread, he said.

If the tumors are caught early, surgery cures at least two-thirds of patients, experts said. After the tumor has metastasized, chemotherapy and radiation may be attempted, but they are generally palliative, not a cure, Justice said.

Each year, about 50,000 malignant melanomas are diagnosed in the United States, and they account for about three-quarters of all skin cancer deaths. The vast majority of deaths occur in the 20% of patients whose tumors have already metastasized at the time of diagnosis.

McCain has had at least four melanomas. The most common risk factors include fair skin, fair eyes, light hair, excessive sunburns and excessive exposure to sunlight – all of which he has. Genetics also plays a major role, but McCain has no family history of the disease that would make him more susceptible.

About 14% to 18% of melanoma patients have a second, unrelated tumor later, Justice said. “If [McCain] has had four, he’ll probably have a fifth,” he said. “But there is a superb chance it will be curable” because it will most likely be caught early.

The physicians from the Mayo Clinic in Scottsdale who cared for McCain emphasized that each of his four melanomas were independent tumors and not recurrences.

Melanocytes sit in the junction between the dermis, the outer layer of the skin, and the epidermis, the middle layer. In a primary melanoma, pathologists can see the tumor growing out from the junction and be confident that it is not a recurrence.

All four of the melanomas McCain suffered displayed this characteristic, including the large tumor that was removed from his temple in August 2000.

But buried in the nearly 1,200 pages of medical records released Friday was the fact that there were apparently two melanomas observed at the time, the large one that was the focus of the surgery and a smaller one at the same site that had very little involvement with the dermis.

“It might have come from underneath, and might have been a micro-metastatic lesion, indicating it was a recurrence from a previous tumor,” Peng said. But because McCain has had no recurrence in the eight years since the surgery, Peng added, “he is doing pretty well.”

[Fez4PrezN2008]

Ahh Doc, how could you dis me like that... " I don't remember who wrote this " geez and I had a lol pic and everything.

:furious:

[yojimbo7248]

At age 72, John McCain has a 12 year life expectancy. Note that as you get older, your life expectancy actually goes UP (because if you get to a certain age, you've likely not had a ton of heart attacks or advanced cancer, etc., so you're expected to live longer) for awhile, then levels off again. The probability that he will die within one year of taking office is 0.032978, or approximately 3%.


Dr. Steve,

Does the 12 year life expectancy take into consideration his medical history with cancer? Or does that even matter? Thanks.

Oh shit, never mind. looks like someone else asked this. I'll read what you have already posted. thanks for the answer to the question in previous posts.

[Dr Steve]

Ahh Doc, how could you dis me like that... " I don't remember who wrote this " geez and I had a lol pic and everything.

:furious:

Dude, totally my bad...we were already recording when I realized I'd printed the question off without your name! HA! No dis-intended, my friend, just poor show prep on my part.

:flush:

[furie]

he's old. we get it.

[brettmojo]

he's old. we get it.
Reeeeaaaaallllllllllyyyyy old.