Election Day Discussion & Analysis

[K.C.]

http://img380.imageshack.us/img380/7356/mapfp7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img380.imageshack.us/img380/mapfp7.jpg/1/w928.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img380/mapfp7.jpg/1/)

Senate Alignment:
Democratic - 35
Republican - 26
Independent - 2 (caucus with Dems)
To Be Decided - 33

House Alignment:
Democratic - 0
Republican - 0
To Be Decided - 535

Governorships
Democratic - 22
Republican - 17
To Be Decided - 11

[mikeyboy]

To avoid any confusion, this thread is for people just following the election returns. The other one is for people listening to Ron & Fez as they cover the returns. Duplicative? Maybe a little. depending on how things go, it may make sense to merge these, but for now, let's keep them separate.

[King Hippos Bandaid]

a disclaimer


you are such a lawyer Mikey

[K.C.]

To avoid any confusion, this thread is for people just following the election returns. The other one is for people listening to Ron & Fez as they cover the returns. Duplicative? Maybe a little. depending on how things go, it may make sense to merge these, but for now, let's keep them separate.

Sound good to me, boss man.

[Hottub]

This is a separate thread. I suppose it's for watching the returns, CNN and whatnot.
This is not the Ron and Fez Listening thread.


*EDIT* Mikeyboy is on the case.

[BlackSpider]

This is a separate thread. I suppose it's for watching the returns, CNN and whatnot.
This is not the Ron and Fez Listening thread.


*EDIT* Mikeyboy is on the case.

Do I have to turn the volume of the show down if I'm reading this thread

[disneyspy]

What!?!

[K.C.]

Rudy Giuliani is on CNN trying to now distance himself from the current Republican leadership.

Hmmm...someone's trying to reposition himself as moderate.

Guess he's eyeing a Senate seat.


I'll be trying to keep a running tab of the Congress races in this thread.

Also, I'll fill in that map as states are called.


Polls Close at 7 PM:
-Vermont
-Indiana
-Kentucky
-Virginia
-South Carolina
-Georgia


Races to watch:

Indiana - Governor - Daniels (R) vs. Long-Thompson (D)
Vermont - Governor - Douglas (R) vs. Pollina (I) vs. Symington (D)

Indiana - House 03 - Souder (R) vs. Montagano (D)
Kentucky - House 02 - Guthrie (R) vs. Boswell (D)
Virginia - House 02 - Drake (R) vs. Nye (D)
Virginia - House 05 - Goode (R) vs. Perriello (D)

Kentucky - Senate - McConnell (R) vs. Lunsford (D)
South Carolina - Senate - Graham (R) vs. Conley (D)
Georgia - Senate - Chambliss (R) vs. Martin (D)

[mikeyboy]

From Drudge (http://www.drudgereport.com):

EXIT POLLS CLAIM 'OBAMA +15' IN PA... DEVELOPING...

[Hottub]

Surely not western pa.

[TheMojoPin]

I gotta leave in like 20 minutes, but remember...EXIT POLLS ARE NOT TO BE TRUSTED!

[mikeyboy]

I gotta leave in like 20 minutes, but remember...EXIT POLLS ARE NOT TO BE TRUSTED!

Of course not. We learned that pretty clearly in 2004. I'm just putting it out there.

[BlackSpider]

Surely not western pa.

PA is a blue state...

[extracheese]

Went to vote at West 77th street in Manhattan and 7am, and the lines were around the block. I left and returned at 6pm and it was empty. Done and done.

QUESTION: I noticed a few people i never heard of also running for President on the ballot.
WHY WOULD SOMEONE SPEND the money and time, on a 100 percent certain failed outcome?

I cannot figure that out.

[K.C.]

56 house members are running unopposed.

This is the House alignment after the unopposed are figured in:

Democrats - 42
Republicans - 12


One thing you have to give the DNC is that they at least put candidates up for most races.

The RNC leaves 42 races uncontested?? At least put a name on the ballot...



Interestingly enough, in the Kentucky Senate race, Mitch McConnell, the Republican senator is running 10% behind McCain right now, with the early results coming from primarily rural areas.

Could signify that race is close senate race.

[K.C.]

Obama projected to win Vermont
McCain projected to win Kentucky

No surprise so far.

[K.C.]

Governorships
Democrats - 22
Republicans - 18

Results:
Kentucky - Gov. - Daniels (R) def. Long Thompson (D)


Senate:
Democrats - 38
Republicans - 27
Independents - 2

Results:
Virginia - Senate - Warner (D) def. Gilmore (R)
South Carolina - Senate - Graham (R) def. Conley (D)

[Dougie Brootal]

hiya buddays!

[Friday]

too many threads.

i is confoosed.

[K.C.]

Polls close at 7:30
-Ohio
-West Virginia
-North Carolina

Races to watch

North Carolina - Governor - Perdue (D) vs. McCroy (R) vs. Munger (L)
West Virginia - Governor - Manchin (D) vs. Weeks (R)

North Carolina - House 08 - Kissell (D) vs. Hayes (R) vs. Hill (L)
Ohio - House 01 - Chabot (R) vs. Driehaus (D)
Ohio - House 02 - Schmidt (R) vs. Wulsin (D) vs. Krikorian (I)
Ohio - House 15 - Kilroy (D) vs. Stivers (R) vs. Eckhart (I)
Ohio - House 16 - Boccieri (D) vs. Schuring (R)
West Virginia - House 02 - Capito (R) vs. Barth (D)

West Virginia - Senate - Rockefeller (D) vs. Wolfe (R)
North Carolina - Senate - Dole (R) vs. Hagan (D) vs. Cole (L)

[Dougie Brootal]

me too. where are we sposed to post?!?!

[K.C.]

Virginia - House 04 - Forbes (R) def. Miller (D)
Virginia - House 07 - Cantor (R) def. Hartke (D)

Kentucky - House 04 - Davis (R) def. Kelley (D)

Indiana - House 06 - Pence (R) def. Welsh (D

Democrats - 42
Republicans - 16

[hammersavage]

Can't Obama just lock in Virginia. Then I think I can rest a little easy.

[K.C.]

I'm going to post an update on the other races every 20 minutes or so, so I don't run my post count up by 800 before the end of this night.

Next update:

7:50 PM

[NickyL0885]

such a cliffhanger. all states too close/early to call.

[JerseySean]

Can't Obama just lock in Virginia. Then I think I can rest a little easy.

Just looked at what reported in VA and the numbers, its McCain.

[Sinestro]

16 to 3 for McCain.

[K.C.]

Senate Alignment:
Democratic - 39
Republican - 27
Independent - 2 (caucus with Dems)
To Be Decided - 32

South Carolina - Graham (R) def. Conley (D)
Virginia - Warner (D) def. Gilmore (R)
West Virginia - Rockefeller (D) def. Wolfe (R)


House Alignment:
Democratic - 44
Republican - 17
To Be Decided - 474

Indiana - House 02 - Donnelly (D) def. Puckett (R)
Indiana - House 06 - Pence (R) def. Welsh (D)
Kentucky - House 03 - Yarmuth (D) def. Northup (R)
Kentucky - House 04 - Davis (R) def. Kelley (D)
Virginia - House 04 - Forbes (R) def. Miller (D)
Virginia - House 06 - Goodlatte (R) def. Rasoul (D)
Virginia - House 07 - Cantor (R) def. Hartke (D)


Governorships
Democratic - 23
Republican - 18
To Be Decided - 9

Indiana - Daniels (R) def. Long Thompson (D)
West Virginia - Manchin (D) def. Weeks (R)

[K.C.]

Polls close at 8:00
-Maine
-New Hampshie
-Massachusettes
-Connecticut
-Pennsylvania
-New Jersey
-Delaware
-DC
-Maryland
-Illinois
-Missouri
-Oklahoma
-Tennessee
-Mississippi
-Alabama
-Florida

Races to watch:

Missouri - Governor - Nixon (D) vs. Hulshof (R)
Delaware - Governor - Markell (D) vs. Lee (R)
New Hampshire - Governor - Lynch (D) vs. Kenney (R)

New Hampshire - House 01 - Shea-Porter (D) vs. Bradley (R)
Connecticut - House 04 - Himes (D) vs. Shays (R)
Pennsylvania - House 03 - Dahlkemper (D) vs. English (R)
Pensylvania - House 11 - Barletta (R) vs. Kanjorski (D)
New Jersey - House 03 - Adler (D) vs. Myers (R)
New Jersey - House 07 - Stender (D) vs. Lance (R)
Delaware - House 01 - Castle (R) vs. Hartley-Nagle (D)
Maryland - House 01 - Harris (R) vs. Kratovil (D)
Illinois - House 10 - Seals (D) vs. Kirk (R)
Missouri - House 09 - Luetkemeyer (R) vs. Baker (D)
Alabama - House 02 - Bright (D) vs. Love (R)
Florida - House 08 - Grayson (D) vs. Keller (R)
Florida - House 16 - Mahoney (D) vs. Rooney (R)
Florida - House 21 - Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Martinez (D)
Florida - House 24 - Kosmas (D) vs. Feeney (R)
Florida - House 25 - Diaz-Balart (R) vs. Garcia (D)

Maine - Senate - Collins (R) vs. Allen (D)
New Hampshire - Senate - Shaheen (D) vs. Sununu (R)
New Jersey - Senate - Lautenberg (D) vs. Zimmer (R)
Mississippi - Senate - Wicker (R) vs. Musgrove (D)
Oklahoma - Senate - Inhofe (R) vs. Rice (D)

[K.C.]

Just looked at what reported in VA and the numbers, its McCain.

Virginia looks decent for McCain so far.

Keep an eye on Indiana for Obama, though.

South Carolina called for McCain

[K.C.]

http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/1083/maply7.jpg (http://imageshack.us) http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/maply7.jpg/1/w941.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img399/maply7.jpg/1/)

[NickyL0885]

Pennsylvania to Obama. MUAHAHAHAHA

[hammersavage]

That's a biggie but I still can barely function.

[razorboy]

Sigh. Why wouldn't he take the bet?

[SP1!]

Why are they calling these states when most of them are 20% or less reporting?

Whoa is this shirley roper?

[Reephdweller]

Aside from on the show where else is it reported that Obama won PA? Every channel has it showing as too close to call.

[SP1!]

Aside from on the show where else is it reported that Obama won PA? Every channel has it showing as too close to call.

Yeah CNN has 0% precincts reporting

[K.C.]

Senate Alignment:
Democratic - 39
Republican - 28
Independent - 2 (caucus with Dems)
To Be Decided - 32

South Carolina - Graham (R) def. Conley (D)
Tennessee - Alexander (R) def. Tuke (D)
Virginia - Warner (D) def. Gilmore (R)
West Virginia - Rockefeller (D) def. Wolfe (R)


House Alignment:
Democratic - 46
Republican - 21
To Be Decided - 468

Florida - House 10 - Young (R) def. Hackworth (D)
Indiana - House 02 - Donnelly (D) def. Puckett (R)
Indiana - House 05 - Burton (R) def. Ruley (D)
Indiana - House 06 - Pence (R) def. Welsh (D)
Kentucky - House 01 - Whitfield (R) def. Ryan (D)
Kentucky - House 03 - Yarmuth (D) def. Northup (R)
Kentucky - House 04 - Davis (R) def. Kelley (D)
Kentucky - House 06 - Chandler (D) def. Larson (R)
Mississippi - House 02 - Thompson (D) def. Cook (R)
Virginia - House 01 - Wittman (R) def. Day (D)
Virginia - House 04 - Forbes (R) def. Miller (D)
Virginia - House 06 - Goodlatte (R) def. Rasoul (D)
Virginia - House 07 - Cantor (R) def. Hartke (D)


Governorships
Democratic - 23
Republican - 18
To Be Decided - 9

Indiana - Daniels (R) def. Long Thompson (D)
West Virginia - Manchin (D) def. Weeks (R)

[Reephdweller]

Yahoo calls Pennsylvania for Obama

Obama takes Pennsylvania (http://www.yahoo.com/s/982421)

Networks project the first big battleground state goes to Barack Obama.

[NickyL0885]

Aside from on the show where else is it reported that Obama won PA? Every channel has it showing as too close to call.

MSNBC

[K.C.]

Biden retained his Senate Seat in Delaware.

Nice.

[SP1!]

Earl, NY was in the shit before a republican took over, a republican he hates as a matter of fact

[K.C.]

Hagan is crushing Elizabeth Dole.

Chambliss is beating Martin early in Georgia, but all the urban areas are out.

McConnell is holding off Lunsford.

All of these are important to whether the Dems hit 60


I'm done updating the House race...WAAAYYY too much work.

[K.C.]

If Obama wins Indiana or North Carolina, the rout is on.

And it's looking good!

[SP1!]

Hagan is crushing Elizabeth Dole.

Chambliss is beating Martin early in Georgia, but all the urban areas are out.

McConnell is holding off Lunsford.

All of these are important to whether the Dems hit 60


I'm done updating the House race...WAAAYYY too much work.

No way chambliss loses martins is an idiot, he was involved in a couple of scandals a few years ago and should not even be considered for a senate seat.

Again, with less that 15% of the precincts reported they call a state? Thats bullshit.

[SP1!]

God I hate southern accents like that

[SP1!]

Yeah his stations getting trounced in the ratings, thats why he hates georgians and no there arent a lot of stickers for obama once you get out of the hood or as we call it decatur.

[SP1!]

FOX News and NBC have called the N.C. Senate race for Democrat Kay Hagan over incumbent U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Dole in a campaign that has been bitterly fought and drawn national attention.

With three of 100 counties reporting, Hagan has 949,885 votes, or 55.2 percent, to Dole's 721,163 votes, or 41.9 percent. Libertarian candidate Christopher Cole has 47,901 votes, or 2.7 percent.

WTF? 3 of 100 means someone else wins? There are 97 more to go.

And clinton was the luckiest president who got a break when a revolutionary technology came to fruition during his term, we could have had carter in office then and he would have been a genius. Its amazing clinton is regarded as a great president who cared about the people when he actually raised taxes on the middle class during his time in office.

[IamFogHat]

Why did people think Virginia would suddenly go democrat. Fuckin polls, Ron's right, never trust em.

[K.C.]

Why did people think Virginia would suddenly go democrat. Fuckin polls, Ron's right, never trust em.

It still may.

People need to chill out.

McCain is underperforming Bush's numbers right now. It's just early returns.

[DiabloSammich]

I am by no means an expert on news coverage throughout history, but that hologram bit that CNN ran earlier this evening could be the biggest pile of dogshit ever put on our screens.

[K.C.]

Looks like the Democrats may fall one short of the filibuster.

They need the Coleman/Franken seat, and one out of McConnell/Lunsford or Chambliss/Martin, both of which have already been called by FOX (even though Carville just said he thought Martin was out performing traditional Democratic performances in Georgia's deep Republican counties, which is most of the vote right now).

Also keep in mind that if Chambliss doesn't get 50%, it goes to a run-off.

[K.C.]

http://img386.imageshack.us/img386/8128/maphw3.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img386.imageshack.us/img386/maphw3.jpg/1/w927.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img386/maphw3.jpg/1/)


So much for those polls saying North Dakota was close.

[celery]

It still may.

People need to chill out.

McCain is underperforming Bush's numbers right now. It's just early returns.

It's damn close, and it seems like the Northern VA (most blue area) is coming is being reported last. It's much closer than it was (at least according to CNN)

[HBox]

obama Wins Ohio!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[celery]

it's over

[K.C.]

Ohio to Obama

http://img385.imageshack.us/img385/5342/mapby8.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img385.imageshack.us/img385/mapby8.jpg/1/w927.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img385/mapby8.jpg/1/)

[razorboy]

it's over

Don't tell Sean.

[NickyL0885]

New Mexico for obama

[K.C.]

Don't tell Sean.

Hell, at this point, Sean will be partying likes it's 1980 and Reaganomics just got introduced if the Democrats can't get to 60 senators.

Come on, Franken!

[LordJezo]

eh.

time for bed.

when i wake up tomorrow i wont have anything. my food will be given to the poor, my car will be given to people with no rides, my dog will be given to the chinese for food, and my job will be given to the unemployed.

oh well.

you hippies win.

expected but still sad. time to load my wife, dog, and gun into the car and head for the mountains.

[razorboy]

eh.

time for bed.

when i wake up tomorrow i wont have anything. my food will be given to the poor, my car will be given to people with no rides, my dog will be given to the chinese for food, and my job will be given to the unemployed.

oh well.

you hippies win.

expected but still sad. time to load my wife, dog, and gun into the car and head for the mountains.

Head for the ocean. Enjoy yourself.

[hammersavage]

It's A Celebration Bitches!!!!!

[K.C.]

Yeah, it's just a question of margin, now.

Obama can win California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii and get over 270 at this point.

The toss-up states are just about whether this will me a monumental blowout.

[K.C.]

Less than 1,000 votes difference in Virginia!

[hammersavage]

Run It Up!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[HBox]

Less than 1,000 votes difference in Virginia!

Up by 8000 now!

[hammersavage]

12,000.

I want Virginia.

[razorboy]

12,000.

I want Virginia.

Virginia, vagina. What's the difference?

[IamFogHat]

About 60 electoral points to go!
And we thought America was weird the last 8 years.:happy:

[HBox]

11PM looks to be the time.

[Sinestro]

McCain's coming back!!

[IamFogHat]

I'm not lazy, I'm just drunk, is there a good map showing the exact (non projected but actual closed) results at this point in the evening?

[HBox]

McCain's coming back!!

TO THE SENATE!

[K.C.]

TO THE SENATE!

Only for two years.

Then he's going to one of 10 homes.

[K.C.]

It looks to me like Obama will pickup Virginia and North Carolina, but fall short in Indiana.

Texas is still relatively close.

So are the senate races in Texas and Mississippi.

[Sinestro]

Haterzz!!! It ain't over. Slow and steady wins the race.

[NickyL0885]

I'm filled with so much glee. I feel like a little school girl. I sense a blowout.

[Sinestro]

Hawaii is going to decide the election.

[K.C.]

Now, it's time to settle in and listen to the anarchy that will become FOX news tonight after this defeat.

Over/Under on the number of times the word 'socialism' is used - 56.

[razorboy]

Only for two years.

Then he's going to one of 10 homes.

I'll have his staff get to you.

[keithy_19]

Now, it's time to settle in and listen to the anarchy that will become FOX news tonight after this defeat.

Over/Under on the number of times the word 'socialism' is used - 56.

Over/Under the amount of times Olberman ejaculates.

[HBox]

Obama's closing in on a 50000 vote lead in Virginia with 89% in.

[JerseySean]

I know many of you have been waiting for this.....

Inconsolable

[Tenbatsuzen]

I know many of you have been waiting for this.....

Inconsolable

sorry dude

[Sinestro]

only a 65 point difference.

[HBox]

And Fox news gives Obama Virginia.

[NickyL0885]

I know many of you have been waiting for this.....

Inconsolable

take the bet.

[K.C.]

Obama up in Montana.

[HBox]

And Fox news gives Obama Virginia.

Which means California alone puts Obama over the top I forgot to add.

[hammersavage]

I know many of you have been waiting for this.....

Inconsolable

Ur a good kid. Sorry to hear that.

take the bet.

[foodcourtdruide]

I know many of you have been waiting for this.....

Inconsolable

Making you feel bad brings me absolutely no joy, but next time use more logic man. In retrospect, don't some of your arguments seem insane? I don't remember if it was you, but one of the conservatives on this board started talking about New Jersey possibly going red, NEW JERSEY!

[mendyweiss]

Mendy's Little Prediction:
Obama's Kids Go To School At Sidwell Friends
Print It !!

[Sinestro]

I'm going to miss Cindy McCain. She's hot for her age.

[NickyL0885]

Its time to be a united country.

[Sinestro]

And Palin's other daughter getting knocked up in a couple of years. What else is there to do in Alaska?

[K.C.]

Which means California alone puts Obama over the top I forgot to add.

Obama and his HOLLYWOOD LIBERAL friends!!!!

I should've known!

[HBox]

Obama is up 8000 votes with 93% in in Indiana.

[Sinestro]

and will that wedding still be on???

[Whiskeyportal]

Its time to be a united country.

shut your cockholster

[hammersavage]

And Palin's other daughter getting knocked up in a couple of years. What else is there to do in Alaska?

You think that kid broke up with preggo yet?

[epo]

Awesome.

[grlNIN]

and will that wedding still be on???

Who knows but that baby will be carted off to an orphanage for undesirables the first chance they get.

[foodcourtdruide]

Palin's national office ambitions are over. The Republican party would be suicidal to put her up in 2012.

[Sinestro]

You think that kid broke up with preggo yet?

That's his money train. They could sell the pics of the baby to the National enquirer or the Star.

[hammersavage]

You have absolutely heard the last of her on a national political level. No doubt.

[K.C.]

CNN calls Virginia for Obama

New President elect in one minute!!

[hammersavage]

Virginia!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! YES!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JerseySean]

Making you feel bad brings me absolutely no joy, but next time use more logic man. In retrospect, don't some of your arguments seem insane? I don't remember if it was you, but one of the conservatives on this board started talking about New Jersey possibly going red, NEW JERSEY!

no

[Sinestro]

Who knows but that baby will be carted off to an orphanage for undesirables the first chance they get.

but then mommy won't collect on the money from big oil that all alaskans get.

[K.C.]

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!

http://www.depauw.edu/photos/PhotoDB_Repository/2007/8/Barack%20Obama%20Capitol.jpg

[tele7]

WoooooHooooooooo!!!!!!!!!! :clap::clap::clap:

[foodcourtdruide]

Being a dick for no reason.

[hammersavage]

CNN PROJECTS!!!!!! so happy

[cougarjake13]

congrats obama

[JerseySean]

Being a dick for no reason.

Sorry, no i never made that argument.

[K.C.]

Oh no!!!

Happy blacks dancing on the news!

Quick, Anthony...get the guns!!!

[cougarjake13]

whats that quote ??

and the world will end with thunderous applause ??

[foodcourtdruide]

Sorry, no i never made that argument.

I was talking about myself, my original response was "Good comeback", but i edited it, lol sorry.

[hammersavage]

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY!

http://www.depauw.edu/photos/PhotoDB_Repository/2007/8/Barack%20Obama%20Capitol.jpg

You are having waaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyy to good a couple weeks bro.

Hope your soul was worth it.

[Whiskeyportal]

but then mommy won't collect on the money from big oil that all alaskans get.

you know obama has declared war on the oil companies, which has made them stop almost all exploration on u.s soil, which is going to make us even more dependent on foreign oil, and to boot with him saying he'll pull the troops out of the middle east will ruin our oil stakes there. driving oil prices up. enjoy, waterhead

[K.C.]

You are having waaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyy to good a couple weeks bro.

Hope your soul was worth it.

I can feel the cancer growing inside me already.

[grlNIN]

but then mommy won't collect on the money from big oil that all alaskans get.

She can pop out another one.

[NickyL0885]

Somewhere, Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson are pissed since they can no long claim the white man is keeping them down.

[Fallon]

Franklyn's absolutely crying right now.

[tele7]

Fox news taking the high road....how fast things change

[K.C.]

Fox news taking the high road....how fast things change

Wait until they trot out Hannity.

[hammersavage]

Franklyn's absolutely crying right now.

Ha!

[K.C.]

Now I have to stay up to see who wins the Minnesota race, and whether Mr. Tubes loses in Alaska.

[HBox]

I can't take anymore crying civil rights leaders. I'm crying like a little bitch.

[foodcourtdruide]

I just thought about this while listening to McCain's speech, this is one of the most important days in the history of our country. Has to be at least top 10, right?

[foodcourtdruide]

oh my god, the fucking chanting.

[cougarjake13]

I just thought about this while listening to McCain's speech, this is one of the most important days in the history of our country. Has to be at least top 10, right?

nah its up there but top ten, no

[keithy_19]

nah its up there but top ten, no

I would think the Giants beating the Patriots would be number 1.

And it is a huge day for the country. I say a solid number 2 or 3. :wink:

[King Hippos Bandaid]

333 Electoral votes, this is a romp


If Obama can win Indiana and NC

we are looking at close to 400

woo hoo

[RingWraith]

Outside the streets of NYC sounds like a NY team won a championship. It's surreal to hear people cheering, drivers honking their horns, ghetto guys shooting up in the air.

Now there's a block party near my neighborhood.

[foodcourtdruide]

nah its up there but top ten, no

Let's start the list.

In no order

9/11
Pearl Harbor
JFK Assassination
Constitution Ratified
End of Civil War
End of Revolutionary War / Declaration of Independence
End of WW2
End of WW1
End of Vietnam War
Lincoln Assassination

Guess you're right.

[grlNIN]

Let's start the list.

In no order


End of Vietnam War


Guess you're right.

I would think that the movement against the war in the late 1960's was much more significant than the actual end of the war. I guess that is more of a social viewpoint than a political one though.

[foodcourtdruide]

I would think that the movement against the war in the late 1960's was much more significant than the actual end of the war. I guess that is more of a social viewpoint than a political one though.

Good point.

MLK assassination is probably up there too.

[Judge Smails]

I am by no means an expert on news coverage throughout history, but that hologram bit that CNN ran earlier this evening could be the biggest pile of dogshit ever put on our screens.

Why is this even fucking necessary?


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[HBox]

Why is this even fucking necessary?


http://<OBJECT height=344 width=425>


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It's started already. And all you haters doubted us when we said Obama would heal the earth and end all suffering. HE'S ALREADY BROUGHT US STAR WARS HOLOGRAMS!

[cougarjake13]

those were pretty bad ass

[keithy_19]

"Worst financial crisis in a century."

...1929...?

[cougarjake13]

everytime they chant all i hear is


HBK , HBK ,HBK !!!

[K.C.]

Now on to the main event!

Will Ted Stevens ride his series of internet tubes away from corruption charges, and into the victory circle? Stay tuned...

[K.C.]

Chambliss is down to 51% with 5% of the vote out.

Could have a runoff in Georgia if he falls below 50.

[HBox]

Now on to the main event!

Will Ted Stevens ride his series of internet tubes away from corruption charges, and into the victory circle? Stay tuned...

No. This WAS the main event. Stevens is the drunk guy who crosses the line with a chick on his way out of the arena, gets his ass handed to him and knocked the fuck out and wakes up the next morning face first in the gutter.

[Rube]

everytime they chant all i hear is


HBK , HBK ,HBK !!!Rubes.

[K.C.]

So to update the last four senate races:

Coleman's leading Franken by 0.4% with 84% of the vote in. Look's like Franken has quite a few votes in St. Paul and Duluth where he's doing well, but we'll see if it's enough.

This one looks headed for a recount.


Chambliss is leading Martin 51%-46% with 97% of the vote in. There's votes out around the Atlanta area, and there's absentee ballots, both which may favor Martin. Martin can't win this outright, but could force a runoff if Chambliss falls below 50%

Merkley is up on Smith in Oregon, 48%-46%, but Merkley is running significantly behind Obama's totals. This one is a toss-up.

Polls just closed in the Begich/Stevens race in Alaska.

[K.C.]

So to update the last four senate races:

Coleman's leading Franken by 0.4% with 84% of the vote in. Look's like Franken has quite a few votes in St. Paul and Duluth where he's doing well, but we'll see if it's enough.

This one looks headed for a recount.


Chambliss is leading Martin 51%-46% with 97% of the vote in. There's votes out around the Atlanta area, and there's absentee ballots, both which may favor Martin. Martin can't win this outright, but could force a runoff if Chambliss falls below 50%

Merkley is up on Smith in Oregon, 48%-46%, but Merkley is running significantly behind Obama's totals. This one is a toss-up.

Polls just closed in the Begich/Stevens race in Alaska.


Chambliss down to 50.3% of the vote with 98% reporting.

Coleman/Franken still too close to call.

Stevens out to a small lead.

Merkley looks to be overperforming in Oregon

[JerseySean]

Chambliss down to 50.3% of the vote with 98% reporting.

Coleman/Franken still too close to call.

Stevens out to a small lead.

Merkley looks to be overperforming in Oregon

Also look for Prop 8 (Gay Marriage Ban) in California. Merkley is underperforming. Portland has reported 1/3 of its precincts. COleman will win, GOP counties are left to report. Michelle Bachman is holding on.

[K.C.]

Also look for Prop 8 (Gay Marriage Ban) in California. Merkley is underperforming. Portland has reported 1/3 of its precincts. COleman will win, GOP counties are left to report. Michelle Bachman is holding on.

Merkley's big counties are still out.

And in Minnesota, 32% still out in St. Louis county, 9% out in Hennepin (most populated area of the state), 24% out in Itasca

Coleman has a couple favorable counties still reporting, but the numbers slightly favor Franken.

This race is going to be recounted anyway, regardless.


Stevens looks like the closest thing for the GOP denying 60 tonight.

[JerseySean]

Merkley's big counties are still out.

And in Minnesota, 32% still out in St. Louis county, 9% out in Hennepin (most populated area of the state), 24% out in Itasca

Coleman has a couple favorable counties still reporting, but the numbers slightly favor Franken.

This race is going to be recounted anyway, regardless.


Stevens looks like the closest thing for the GOP denying 60 tonight.

Don Young is winning too. God Bless Alaska

[JerseySean]

Michelle Bachman snuck in too.

[K.C.]

Franken takes the lead by over 1,000 with 96% in.

It would be the ultimate kick in the balls on this already horrible night for Republicans if he pulls that off.

[K.C.]

Sooooo, here's what I know:

-Looks like there will be a runoff in Georgia between Saxby Chambliss (R) and Jim Martin (D) for that Senate seat, although, there's a number of absentee and early voting numbers that haven't be factored in yet. That said, both would likely favor Martin over Chambliss.

-No clue what the hell will happen in Minnesota. CNN has Norm Coleman (R) up over Al Franken (D) by 762 votes with 99% of the vote in, but where the vote is out is in a heavily Franken county.

My guess is that one of the two will be ahead by less than 100 votes with 100% reporting, meaning a recount, and a fight over provisional ballots.

-Ted 'Tubes' Stevens (R) seems likely to win, although there's some early voting ballots still not counted. Unbelievable how Alaskans could vote for a convicted felon.

-Oregon is far from over. Gordon Smith (R) holds a 13,107 vote lead with 75% of the vote in, but the remaining 25% comes from heavily blue counties where Jeff Merkley (D) is performing well.

[K.C.]

http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/3494/senateqq0.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img366.imageshack.us/img366/senateqq0.jpg/1/w571.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img366/senateqq0.jpg/1/)

571.

This is going to get ugly. It was inevitable we'd get a 'my team of lawyers vs. your team of lawyers' race somewhere.




P.S. Someone locked the Palin thread too soon. But I'll leave that as the cliffhanger. I need breakfast.

[foodcourtdruide]

everytime they chant all i hear is


HBK , HBK ,HBK !!!

I hear "Go Jericho, Go! Go Jericho, Go!"

[K.C.]

P.S. Someone locked the Palin thread too soon. But I'll leave that as the cliffhanger. I need breakfast.

Ok, so here's the deal.

http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/8140/senatevm9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/senatevm9.jpg/1/w579.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img374/senatevm9.jpg/1/)

Tubes has a 3353 vote lead.

I would say it's fairly likely that he'll hold on, although the one thing Begich has going for him is that there's 40,000 or so absentee and early voting ballots that have 10 days to be counted, which is why this race has not been called.

Now, if Tubes hangs on, he's still going to be kicked out of the U.S. Senate by January because of the felony charges, which means a special election.

And who is the most likely candidate to win run for, and win an open senate seat in Alaska?

http://blog.oregonlive.com/elections/2008/03/large_palin_sarah.jpg

[TheMojoPin]

Ok, so here's the deal.

http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/8140/senatevm9.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img374.imageshack.us/img374/senatevm9.jpg/1/w579.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img374/senatevm9.jpg/1/)

Tubes has a 3353 vote lead.

I would say it's fairly likely that he'll hold on, although the one thing Begich has going for him is that there's 40,000 or so absentee and early voting ballots that have 10 days to be counted, which is why this race has not been called.

Now, if Tubes hangs on, he's still going to be kicked out of the U.S. Senate by January because of the felony charges, which means a special election.

And who is the most likely candidate to win run for, and win an open senate seat in Alaska?

http://blog.oregonlive.com/elections/2008/03/large_palin_sarah.jpg

If he's kicked out, I thought that means the governor appoints someone to fill the office.

[K.C.]

If he's kicked out, I thought that means the governor appoints someone to fill the office.

Alaska's rule would call for Special Election.

Begich would probably run again for the Democrats. I can't imagine anyone but Palin running at this point for the Republicans.

Tubes hasn't locked it down yet, though. Absentees and Early Voters tend to favor Democrats. Although Alaska is a pretty Republican state, so it may be different there.

But yeah, if this went to Special Election, I can't see Palin not winning that seat. The only reason it's even competitive this time is because Tubes has the awesome combination of senility and ultra corruption going for him.

[TheMojoPin]

I just figured it meas the Alaskans want a Republican senator. It doesn't mean they're all voting for Stevens...a number of them likely realize that apparently this would just go to special elections when he's given the boot (though I keep seeing other sites mentioning the selection by governor like other states). Whatever the scenario, it allows them to put a Republican in office, and that's what they want.

[Zorro]

I am by no means an expert on news coverage throughout history, but that hologram bit that CNN ran earlier this evening could be the biggest pile of dogshit ever put on our screens.

Obie Wan Reporter...I saw this earlier in the evening when I was at home...CNN was at the election party, but just saw conventional shots of her. Did they do it again and what the fuck was up with John King's hair color? (See I'm all about the important stuff)

[HBox]

This Prop 8 thing is an incredibly ugly stain on an otherwise great night. African Americans on the same night they vote in the first African American President are the main factor in taking away the rights of another minority. Disgusting and revolting are the only words that come to mind.

[HBox]

I just figured it meas the Alaskans want a Republican senator. It doesn't mean they're all voting for Stevens...a number of them likely realize that apparently this would just go to special elections when he's given the boot (though I keep seeing other sites mentioning the selection by governor like other states). Whatever the scenario, it allows them to put a Republican in office, and that's what they want.

And who do you think will be running for that open Senate seat?

http://www.extrememortman.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/Sarah%20Palin.jpg

Fuck Alaska. Fuck them hard.

[TheMojoPin]

And who do you think will be running for that open Senate seat?

http://www.extrememortman.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/Sarah%20Palin.jpg

Fuck Alaska. Fuck them hard.

Eh, whatever. Barring a miracle, she's done on the national scene.

[TheMojoPin]

This Prop 8 thing is an incredibly ugly stain on an otherwise great night. African Americans on the same night they vote in the first African American President are the main factor in taking away the rights of another minority. Disgusting and revolting are the only words that come to mind.

Yeah, Prop 8 passing is incredibly depressing. So stupid.

[razorboy]

And who do you think will be running for that open Senate seat?

http://www.extrememortman.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/08/Sarah%20Palin.jpg

Fuck Alaska. Fuck them hard.

Am I the only one who never understood why people find her even remotely attractive?

[K.C.]

If I had to gauge the out standing races.

-Martin now has a good shot to knock off Chambliss in Georgia if that goes to a runoff, UNLESS it's for the 60th Senate Seat (then there may be a backlash to giving the Democrats a filibuster proof majority).

They'll pour a ton of money into that race, and the high scrutiny of it since it'll be all by itself, will drive turnout hard.


-No f'ing clue what'll happen in Alaska.


-Coleman probably has a better than 50% chance of holding up over Franken during the recount, although, it's such a razor thin margin...one batch of botched numbers from a polling place could turn this thing easily.

-Merkley still has a good shot to defeat Smith in Oregon. He's trailing, but his counties will come in late.


I'd say 58 Democratic Senators.

And then it'll drop to 57 when they tar and feather Joe Lieberman and toss him out a window at the top of the Capital Building.

[K.C.]

Just to give a final update on the status of the Senate Races

Alaska
About 10 days before the absentee/early votes are counted. There's anywhere from 40,000-60,000 being reported. I've mostly heard 40,000, so for Begich to over come Stevens, he'd need to win 58% of those votes.

Feasible, but a bit of a long shot.

Georgia
Definitely going to a runoff, barring a miracle turnout for Chambliss in the early votes (which are all from Martin counties...it's not going to happen)

It'll be interesting to see if Obama tries to help Martin win this seat.

See you in December on this one.

Minnesota

This margin is actually down to 475. It appears all the votes have been counted now, so it'll go to recount.

It's probably pretty likely that Coleman hangs on, but the one thing I'll say is that Minnesota uses the optical scan method, which could POTENTIALLY cause some significant changes in the vote total, when counted by hand.

Which way, though...who knows.

Recount will be in a couple weeks.

Oregon

A couple fringe outlets have already called it for Merkley based on where the vote has yet to come in (Western seaboard area...heavily Democratic and going big for Merkley) , but no real news organizations

It looks pretty good to me, when looking at the map that the Democrats will pick up this seat.


So right now, I'd say it's safe to say 57 for the Democrats, with the other three pending, although, you'd have to give an edge to Coleman and Stevens based on the circumstances, of holding those seats.

[angrymissy]

There is a great slideshow on Huffington Post today of Palin boohoocrying at the concession last night. I'm evil and gave it a

http://op-for.com/simpsons_nelson_haha2.jpg

[JerseySean]

If I had to gauge the out standing races.

-Martin now has a good shot to knock off Chambliss in Georgia if that goes to a runoff, UNLESS it's for the 60th Senate Seat (then there may be a backlash to giving the Democrats a filibuster proof majority).

They'll pour a ton of money into that race, and the high scrutiny of it since it'll be all by itself, will drive turnout hard.


-No f'ing clue what'll happen in Alaska.


-Coleman probably has a better than 50% chance of holding up over Franken during the recount, although, it's such a razor thin margin...one batch of botched numbers from a polling place could turn this thing easily.

-Merkley still has a good shot to defeat Smith in Oregon. He's trailing, but his counties will come in late.


I'd say 58 Democratic Senators.

And then it'll drop to 57 when they tar and feather Joe Lieberman and toss him out a window at the top of the Capital Building.

Smith, Norm and Ted will hold on. No, republican turnout in runoffs is always higher. Black turnout will not be nearly as high for a runoff. A runoff gives it to Saxby.

[K.C.]

Smith, Norm and Ted will hold on. No, republican turnout in runoffs is always higher. Black turnout will not be nearly as high for a runoff. A runoff gives it to Saxby.

Hate to break it to you, but Smith is done. All you have to do is look at the map.

I don't know what you base the other two holding on, on, unless you're just making a guess. But there's really no way to know at this point, to make an informed opinion.

I tend to thing you're right about Chambliss, although I wonder if Obama will go down there and make a spectacle (and if so, whether it'd even work).

Early reports, though, are that Chambliss is out of money, and Martin will have a big edge there, but like you said, it's a Republican state...no Obama on the ticket...should favor Chambliss.

[TheMojoPin]

I don't know what you base the other two holding on, on, unless you're just making a guess.

Clearly. Sean is a good guy, but he talks big with these bold predictions that have mostly collapsed left and right.

[JerseySean]

Hate to break it to you, but Smith is done. All you have to do is look at the map.

I don't know what you base the other two holding on, on, unless you're just making a guess. But there's really no way to know at this point, to make an informed opinion.

I tend to thing you're right about Chambliss, although I wonder if Obama will go down there and make a spectacle (and if so, whether it'd even work).

Early reports, though, are that Chambliss is out of money, and Martin will have a big edge there, but like you said, it's a Republican state...no Obama on the ticket...should favor Chambliss.

Norm is a guess and same with Smith. Military ballots are still out. Also, remember this, mail ballots skew Republican and that is what they have left. Stevens will win. No question. Obama still didnt have the coattails that he should have. What is shocking is that amongst new and black voters for about 4 of my clients that I looked at ballots and we still have an issue with, there was a 60% overvote for Obama. That means that 60% went to go and vote for Obama and walked away from the ballot. Im not worried about runoffs in Georgia. It was a good little shot for them, but they wont pull it out.

[JerseySean]

Clearly. Sean is a good guy, but he talks big with these bold predictions that have mostly collapsed left and right.

Again, as of right now, I nailed all Senate races outside of Stevens. 1 off on House races. I posted it here homeboy. And yes, when I say someone will win, many times that is my opinion.

[TheMojoPin]

Again, as of right now, I nailed all Senate races outside of Stevens. 1 off on House races. I posted it here homeboy. And yes, when I say someone will win, many times that is my opinion.

And none of those were ridiculous predicitons. There weren't any senate or house upsets given the tracking polls going into the election, and you didn't make any kind of outlandish prediciton based on next to nothing like you did with the big race or these leftovers.

[TheMojoPin]

Obama still didnt have the coattails that he should have.

The best trackers called for the Democrats to likely end up with 57 (maybe 58 or 59) seats.

The Democrats will likely end up with...57 (maybe 58 or 59) seats.

Obama appears to have exactly the "coattails" everyone expected.

[JerseySean]

And none of those were ridiculous predicitons. There weren't any senate or house upsets given the tracking polls going into the election, and you didn't make any kind of outlandish prediciton based on next to nothing like you did with the big race or these leftovers.

Yes its like picking the world series Mr. Unfun. I also happen to be 3rd in the ronfez.net pigskin pickem. Im good a picking shit what do you want from me. And yes there were upsets and I was closer than Cook, and some of the poltico commentators.

[TheMojoPin]

Yes its like picking the world series Mr. Unfun. I also happen to be 3rd in the ronfez.net pigskin pickem. Im good a picking shit what do you want from me. And yes there were upsets and I was closer than Cook, and some of the poltico commentators.

Dude, you said Obama wouldn't crack 300 electoral votes and kept talking like McCain had a realistic shot of winning and how "you knew" key polls were wrong (that turned out to be right).

[JerseySean]

Dude, you said Obama wouldn't crack 300 electoral votes and kept talking like McCain had a realistic shot of winning and how "you knew" key polls were wrong (that turned out to be right).

My shit was wrong I admitted it. I thought it was right, but it wasnt. I blew the Presidential....guilty. I nailed the rest though.

[TheMojoPin]

My shit was wrong I admitted it. I thought it was right, but it wasnt. I blew the Presidential....guilty. I nailed the rest though.

But there was nothing to nail! You just agreed with what everyone else was saying here and in the polls.

[foodcourtdruide]

Yes its like picking the world series Mr. Unfun. I also happen to be 3rd in the ronfez.net pigskin pickem. Im good a picking shit what do you want from me. And yes there were upsets and I was closer than Cook, and some of the poltico commentators.

Third? Excuse us Nostradamus.

[HBox]

But there was nothing to nail! You just agreed with what everyone else was saying here and in the polls.

Just face it. You got NAILED.

http://babypoobarellah.files.wordpress.com/2007/03/colbert.jpg

[JerseySean]

Third? Excuse us Nostradamus.

I forgot to put in my week one picks. cut me a break

[K.C.]

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I'm sorry...this guy is a complete asshole.

425 votes and he puts on the "oh, you know I'd step back and let it go" schtick.

Bullshit.

Coleman would have every lawyer in a 500 mile radius helicoptered in.

[Jujubees2]

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I'm sorry...this guy is a complete asshole.

425 votes and he puts on the "oh, you know I'd step back and let it go" schtick.

Bullshit.

Coleman would have every lawyer in a 500 mile radius helicoptered in.

What a dick. Franken didn't ask for recount. It's automatic since the race was so close. And how is it so important? It's not like we're at 50-50 in the senate and this race could shift power.

[mikeyboy]

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Why the long face?

[hammersavage]

My shit was wrong I admitted it. I thought it was right, but it wasnt. I blew the President....guilty. I nailed the rest though.

Fixed and eww.

[foodcourtdruide]

I forgot to put in my week one picks. cut me a break

Ok, sorry to go off topic, but who should I start in my fantasy league this week, DeAngelo Williams or Steve Slaton?

[K.C.]

Ok, so I just did the math in the Oregon race.

If the current statewide margins hold up, it'll be close as the numbers trickle in, but then Merkley will get a huge boost from Multnomah county at the very top of the state, and win the race.

That's if the current statewide margins hold up....if they do, Merkley wins by a little less than 33,000 votes.


Here's the race tracker:
http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html

[K.C.]

Why the long face?

Because he's a couple hanging chads away from losing to a SNL Writer with no political experience.

That one has to hurt.

Couldn't happen to a more deserving guy, though.

He never would have been elected in the first place if Paul Wellstone hadn't died.

[K.C.]

DailyKos got an e-mail from the Begich campaign, the guy running for Senate, about what's up with that race.

There are about 60,000 votes out. Of those there are 9500 known Early Votes, 5700 questioned with as many as another 8000 or more questioned ballots (similar to Provisional ballots in some states – in Anchorage these are often teachers and those who work far enough away from their homes, but near a polling place), and 46,000 or so absentee ballots of a substantial number are not mail in but are early vote absentee.

Based on these things, we believe it is possible (I think probably a good 50/50 chance) to win and so Mark has not conceded. We won about 59% of the early voting absentees. Generally have done well with Anchorage Mail in absentees (won a Mayor's race on them) and are likely to do less well in the out of Anchorage absentees. We solidly won rural Alaska, Fairbanks and Southeast and expect to do well with their absentees, though not with Mat-Su, Roads and Kenai.

We also have seen some precinct anomalies that have to be addressed (one precinct shows hardly any votes for Mark and Ted, but large numbers of votes for the two independents – likely a machine calibration error). Given all of this, and many of you know that I crunch numbers all the time, I believe we might still win, but won't know until around the 17th at the earliest.

In a follow-up email, he ads:

This just in from Mark. On our three military bases we won. This has big ramifications for the absentee vote. Here are the numbers:

Ft. Wainwright (Fairbanks): 270 Begich 184 Stevens
Elmendorf AFB (Anchorage): 723 Begich 461 Stevens
Ft. Richardson (Anchorage: 235 Begich 137 Stevens



If their number is right that they won about 59% of the absentee voting, then he's got a 50/50 shot of winning the race.

Like I said, he needs about 58% of it to overtake Stevens.

[K.C.]

One down, three to go.

http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/6625/senatefr2.jpg (http://imageshack.us)
http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/senatefr2.jpg/1/w667.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img201/senatefr2.jpg/1/)

[HBox]

Sometimes those calls look so weird. He's up 400 votes with 81% in and they call it? I know they have their reasons but it always looks bad.

[K.C.]

Sometimes those calls look so weird. He's up 400 votes with 81% in and they call it? I know they have their reasons but it always looks bad.

Yeah, I agree it looks bad on the surface when news agencies do that.

And I think the Oregonian is the only place that called it right now.

But the big thing is this projection:
Multnomah - Merkley 58,953 , Smith 25,517 (Merkley +33436)

He stands to pick that up from the remaining votes in Multnomah county, and if you look at the map, Smith has almost nothing left to offset it.

There's just no logical path to Smith coming back.

[A.J.]

Am I the only one who never understood why people find her even remotely attractive?

Compare her to other female elected officials. She's Miss America.

[celery]

My shit was wrong I admitted it. I thought it was right, but it wasnt. I blew the Presidential....guilty. I nailed the rest though.

But there was nothing to nail! You just agreed with what everyone else was saying here and in the polls.

Also, about 90% of your posts were about the Presidential election.

[K.C.]

Norm Coleman's lead dropped from 446 to 337 in the last day or so.

They haven't officially finished counting the votes in Minnesota, as some absentees and provisionals are still funneling in.

And that asshole wanted Franken to concede.

Just forget about the recount for a second (which is a state mandate, by the way), they haven't even FINISHED COUNTING THE VOTES!!!

[K.C.]

Nate Silver, the guy from FiveThirtyEight.com absolutely NAILED this entire election.

One of the few blemishes, not just for him, but all the pollsters was how badly Alaska was miscalculated.

This is his possible explanation.

When you read it, though, it seems to suggest that something is very very VERY wrong up there.

Conventional wisdom seems to suggest that turnout wouldn't be DOWN with a high profile Senate race, and the state's first candidate for a national ticket on the ballot.

Anyway:

What In The Hell Happened in Alaska?

Although Ted Stevens holds a small lead in Alaska and is the favorite to retain his seat, the outcome is not as inevitable as it might appear to be. Stevens currently holds a lead of 3,353 votes, or about 1.5 percent of the votes tallied so far. But, there are quite a large number of ballots yet to count. According to Roll Call, these include "at least 40,000 absentee ballot, 9,000 early voting ballots, and an undetermined number of questionable ballots".

Indeed, it seems possible that the number of "questionable" ballots could be quite high. So far, about 220 thousand votes have been processed in Alaska. This compares with 313 thousand votes cast in 2004. After adding back in the roughly 50,000 absentee and early ballots that Roll Call accounts for, that would get us to 270 thousand ballots, or about a 14 percent drop from 2004. It seems unlikely that turnout would drop by 14 percent in Alaska given the presence of both a high-profile senate race and Sarah Palin at the top of the ticket.

But even if Begich were to make up ground and win a narrow victory, this would seem to represent a catastrophic failure of polling, as three polls conducted following the guilty verdict in Stevens' corruption trial had Begich leading by margins of 7, 8 and 22 points, respectively.

The emerging conventional wisdom is that there was some sort of a Bradley Effect in this contest -- voters told pollsters that they weren't about to vote for that rascal Ted Stevens, when in fact they were perfectly happy to. Convicted felons are the new black, it would seem.

The problem with this theory is that the polling failures in Alaska weren't unique to Stevens. They also applied to the presidential race, as well as Alaska's at-large House seat. In each case, the Republican outperformed his pre-election polling by margins ranging from 12 to 14 points:

Contest Projection Result Delta
AL-ALL Berkowitz +6.4 (i) Young +7.7 GOP +14.1
AL-Sen Begich +12.9 (ii) Stevens +1.5 GOP +14.4
AL-Pres McCain +13.9 (iii) McCain +25.3 GOP +12.4

(i) Pollster.com Trend Estimate
(ii) FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
(iii) FiveThirtyEight Trend-Adjusted Estimate

There are three plausible explanations I can think of to explain this discrepancy. The first and most likely is that the Democratic vote became complacent and did not bother to turn out. The outcome of the presidential contest was not going to be close in Alaska, and Barack Obama's victory in the Electoral College was apparent as of about 4 PM local time. Begich supporters, moreover, may have looked at the polls and concluded that their candidate was far enough ahead that they didn't have to bother to vote. Meanwhile, the Republican base was going to turn out no matter what because of their enthusiasm for Sarah Palin. There seems to be a sort of danger zone at about 10 points wherein a candidate is far enough ahead that many of his supporters assume the race is in the bag, but not so far ahead that he is immune to poor turnout (a similar dynamic affected then-Governor Jim Blanchard of Michigan in his 1990 race against John Engler).

The second possibility is that a substantial percentage of the Democratic vote is tied up in the early and absentee ballots that have yet to be counted. We know that Barack Obama overperformed among early voters in many states, and Alaska may be no exception. (Although, I would guess that the absentee vote is predominately rural, whereas Begich's base is in Anchorage).

The third possibility is that a lot of those "questionable" ballots are Democratic ones, and that there have been irregularities in the voting tally. Although this is the least likely possibility, Alaska is a provincial state with some history of corruption, and Democrats ought to be making sure that too many of their ballots haven't been disqualified.

[HBox]

This may be a first, I'm not sure, but it looks like Obama will probably win Omaha and pull one electoral vote from Nebraska. (http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10480262)

Does anyone know if a state has split electoral votes before?

[K.C.]

This may be a first, I'm not sure, but it looks like Obama will probably win Omaha and pull one electoral vote from Nebraska. (http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10480262)

Does anyone know if a state has split electoral votes before?

Maine did in 2000 between Bush and Gore, I believe.

[epo]

The Franken/Coleman mess in Minnesota is down to a 342 vote difference. (http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/34024274.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD 3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUX)

Politically, that is one wacky-ass state.

[EliSnow]

Politically, that is one wacky-ass state.

It's where I grew up, so part of me objects, but then I remember that its voters put Jesse Venture in office, that it was the only state going for Mondale in 1984 (sure he was a homer, but come on), and it elected one of the most liberal candidates in recent history (Paul Wellstone).

[K.C.]

The Franken/Coleman mess in Minnesota is down to a 342 vote difference. (http://www.startribune.com/politics/state/34024274.html?elr=KArksLckD8EQDUoaEyqyP4O:DW3ckUiD 3aPc:_Yyc:aULPQL7PQLanchO7DiUX)

Politically, that is one wacky-ass state.

Minnesota SoS just updated again.

It's down to 336.


One of the things I've seen as a possible reason for why Coleman is so nervous about the recount is the number of undervotes in the Minnesota election.

2,910,143 votes were recorded in the Presidential Race

2,885,289 votes were recorded in the Senate Race

A difference of 24,854

Now, the truth of the matter is that most people do this by design. As you go down a ticket, the number of votes cast for each race generally decrease.

But, in a race that's seperated by 336 votes, it's very possible that number of votes can be found.

But by the same token, they could find extra Coleman votes...there's no way to gauge it.

The Star Tribune also did a piece on what would be looked at on the ballots during the recount, that wouldn't be picked up by the machine, but would be added into the total.

http://politicalblogs.startribune.com/bigquestionblog/?p=1193

Simply put, there's a lot of ways to screw up a Minnesota ballot, but still get it added in during a recount.

[K.C.]

Newest update has Coleman down to 236 votes.


Shaved another 100 off the margin from earlier today. I will never stop laughing if Franken actually overtakes Coleman before they certify the first results, as these votes trickle in, and that douchebag Coleman has to stand in front of a camera and explain his 'I would forego the recount' comment.

[mikeyboy]

Newest update has Coleman down to 236 votes.


Shaved another 100 off the margin from earlier today. I will never stop laughing if Franken actually overtakes Coleman before they certify the first results, as these votes trickle in, and that douchebag Coleman has to stand in front of a camera and explain his 'I would forego the recount' comment.

That indeed would be rich.

[KnoxHarrington]

Minnesota SoS just updated again.

It's down to 336.


One of the things I've seen as a possible reason for why Coleman is so nervous about the recount is the number of undervotes in the Minnesota election.

2,910,143 votes were recorded in the Presidential Race

2,885,289 votes were recorded in the Senate Race

A difference of 24,854

Now, the truth of the matter is that most people do this by design. As you go down a ticket, the number of votes cast for each race generally decrease.

But, in a race that's seperated by 336 votes, it's very possible that number of votes can be found.

But by the same token, they could find extra Coleman votes...there's no way to gauge it.

The Star Tribune also did a piece on what would be looked at on the ballots during the recount, that wouldn't be picked up by the machine, but would be added into the total.

http://politicalblogs.startribune.com/bigquestionblog/?p=1193

Simply put, there's a lot of ways to screw up a Minnesota ballot, but still get it added in during a recount.

I'm betting that in a race with a high turnout that was attracting lots of people were were either voting for the first time ever or for the first time in a long time, there are a lot of provisional ballots that need to be certified before they can be actually counted. And most first-time voters went Democratic.

I think Franken can pull this off.

[epo]

That indeed would be rich.

I'm betting that in a race with a high turnout that was attracting lots of people were were either voting for the first time ever or for the first time in a long time, there are a lot of provisional ballots that need to be certified before they can be actually counted. And most first-time voters went Democratic.

I think Franken can pull this off.

C-Span 2 hopes to be that lucky!

[K.C.]

I'm betting that in a race with a high turnout that was attracting lots of people were were either voting for the first time ever or for the first time in a long time, there are a lot of provisional ballots that need to be certified before they can be actually counted. And most first-time voters went Democratic.

I think Franken can pull this off.

There's that factor, and there's also the point that there's some really, really, really stupid people that man these polling places on Election Day, who are only there for the $100 and the free sandwich.

I worked for a local campaign in 2004 and was a Challenger (go to polling places on behalf of the candidate to make sure nothing's being compromised, and report back vote totals) for the race, and trust me, it would not surprise me if they find significant mistakes in the totals during this double-checking period.

That's why Coleman is looking increasingly stupid as this total continues to shrink.


He even had a giant 'VICTORY' banner on his campaign page yesterday.

[KnoxHarrington]

Maine did in 2000 between Bush and Gore, I believe.

Republicans in California were actually trying to get an effort going to split their state's votes by district too, with the obvious aim of trying to stop their state from delivering about 1/5 of the electoral votes you win the Democrats.

To which I say to them: man up, nancy, and figure out how to win your state outright. You're the state that gave us Nixon and Reagan. You can figure this out.

That said, I do think the method of splitting votes by district is a good one, but it's a half-assed solution to the real problem: the archaic Electoral College must be abolished.

[high fly]

I'm pissed that I gotta wait two more years to be able to drop "hustings" in conversation on a regular basis.....

[JerseySean]

There's that factor, and there's also the point that there's some really, really, really stupid people that man these polling places on Election Day, who are only there for the $100 and the free sandwich.

I worked for a local campaign in 2004 and was a Challenger (go to polling places on behalf of the candidate to make sure nothing's being compromised, and report back vote totals) for the race, and trust me, it would not surprise me if they find significant mistakes in the totals during this double-checking period.

That's why Coleman is looking increasingly stupid as this total continues to shrink.


He even had a giant 'VICTORY' banner on his campaign page yesterday.

80% of provisionals will get thrown out if they havent been counted already. Remember also, that military ballots still need to come in. That will help Coleman as well.

[K.C.]

80% of provisionals will get thrown out if they havent been counted already. Remember also, that military ballots still need to come in. That will help Coleman as well.

ALL ballots have been counted in Minnesota, according the SoS, including military and absentee.

And there are no provisionals in Minnesota, because of Same-Day registration


How Franken may overcome the 238 vote deficit is Minnesota's rules on determining intent in a recount, that I linked above.

[JerseySean]

ALL ballots have been counted in Minnesota, according the SoS, including military and absentee.

And there are no provisionals in Minnesota, because of Same-Day registration


How Franken may overcome the 238 vote deficit is Minnesota's rules on determining intent in a recount, that I linked above.

Arent there other military ballots out? A lot of time they dont come in until well after election day? Doesnt Minnesota use all machines?

[Syd]

80% of provisionals will get thrown out if they havent been counted already. Remember also, that military ballots still need to come in. That will help Coleman as well.

Depends on who the ballots are coming from. Enlistees are breaking hard for Democrats in general.

[JerseySean]

Depends on who the ballots are coming from. Enlistees are breaking hard for Democrats in general.

Where did you see that?

[epo]

Arent there other military ballots out? A lot of time they dont come in until well after election day? Doesnt Minnesota use all machines?

All of the reports have said that all of Minnesota's ballots are in.

Get ready for the recount!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[JerseySean]

All of the reports have said that all of Minnesota's ballots are in.

Get ready for the recount!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

do you know what kind of machines MN has? Does MN have a "Straight Ticket" button or box on an absentee? I knoe Franken gained 100 because someone screwed up and reported it as 24 intead of 124 for Franken. It will be fun to watch.

[K.C.]

do you know what kind of machines MN has? Does MN have a "Straight Ticket" button or box on an absentee? I knoe Franken gained 100 because someone screwed up and reported it as 24 intead of 124 for Franken. It will be fun to watch.

It's optical scanning of paper ballots, I believe.

If you ever took a scantron test in school, it's similar to that.

And that's what makes this so interesting, because there's the potential for a substantially large shift in votes (at least as far as recounts go).

As far as I understand it, if you accidentally mark the ballot outside of the bubble next to the candidates name, or don't fill it in all the way, or fill it in too lightly, the machine won't pick it up.

Not to mention people who just didn't read the directions and did the wrong thing.

I don't think it favors one candidate over the other, though.

This is literally a toss up. Maybe you give Coleman something like a 60% chance, because he's defending the lead, but it's such a slim margin.

[K.C.]

Minnesota SoS updated the numbers again.

Coleman's down to 221.

Less than a .01% difference.

[JerseySean]

It's optical scanning of paper ballots, I believe.

If you ever took a scantron test in school, it's similar to that.

And that's what makes this so interesting, because there's the potential for a substantially large shift in votes (at least as far as recounts go).

As far as I understand it, if you accidentally mark the ballot outside of the bubble next to the candidates name, or don't fill it in all the way, or fill it in too lightly, the machine won't pick it up.

Not to mention people who just didn't read the directions and did the wrong thing.

I don't think it favors one candidate over the other, though.

This is literally a toss up. Maybe you give Coleman something like a 60% chance, because he's defending the lead, but it's such a slim margin.

For absentees, probably. But for actual election day voting, any idea? I cant believe after HAVA, etc. they are still using punch or scan cards on e day

[razorboy]

For absentees, probably. But for actual election day voting, any idea? I cant believe after HAVA, etc. they are still using punch or scan cards on e day

Almost all of the states used optical scan machines to some extent. Most of them to a large extent.


http://dvice.com/voting/index.php

[K.C.]

For absentees, probably. But for actual election day voting, any idea? I cant believe after HAVA, etc. they are still using punch or scan cards on e day

Nope, it's for regular voting.

[JerseySean]

Nope, it's for regular voting.

No shit. Ive never done a race in those states. You're right this will be interesting.

[K.C.]

Good news for Franken's chances if true:

Most Senate undervotes in ballots from Obama turf

By BRIAN BAKST , Associated Press

November 7, 2008

ST. PAUL, Minn. - An Associated Press analysis of the nearly 25,000-vote difference in presidential and Senate race tallies shows that most ballots lacking a recorded Minnesota Senate vote were cast in counties won by Democrat Barack Obama.

The finding could have implications for Republican Sen. Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken, who are headed for a recount separated by the thinnest of margins — a couple hundred votes, or about 0.01 percent.

Though some voters may have intentionally bypassed the race, others may have mismarked their ballot or optical scanning machines may have misread them. A recount due to begin Nov. 19 will use manual inspection to detect such ballots.

Three counties — Hennepin, Ramsey and St. Louis — account for 10,540 votes in the dropoff between the two races. Each saw Obama win with 63 percent or more.

Larry Jacobs, a University of Minnesota political science professor, said the dropoff analysis creates a "zone of uncertainty" that could become a focal point for the campaigns and election officials.

"These numbers present a roadmap for a Franken challenge," he said. "It suggests there are about 10,000 votes in the largest Democratic counties that are potentially going to tilt in Franken's direction."

The Minnesota ballots that showed a presidential vote, but no Senate vote, are called the "undervote."

Statewide, more than 18,000 of those ballots came from counties won by Obama with more than half the vote. About 6,100 were in counties won by McCain with at least 50 percent.

In 13 counties, the two ran about even; in all, those counties combined for 707 ballots without a Senate preference.

Some areas of the state would seem to favor Coleman in a recount based on the dropoff, but most of those were smaller counties where the undervote was in the dozens. The largest of those pro-McCain counties were Anoka, where 1,189 ballots didn't choose a Senate candidate, and Stearns, where 681 did not.

Only one county — Jackson — reported one Senate vote for every presidential vote.

There's one more critical statistic: About 8,900 people weren't recorded as voting for president, according to county-by-county turnout estimates kept by the Secretary of State. That nearly 9,000 people would skip the closely watched race is questionable, raising the possibility that as many as 33,700 ballots might be subject to change in a hand recount.

Minnesota ballots are fed into optical scanners, which depend on voters filling in ovals to make their choice.

Kim Brace, president of the consulting firm Election Data Services Inc., said there's no reason a ballot without a vote for a particular race would be rejected.

"Usually they're set to kick back to the voter if there is an overvote," said Brace, who has been an expert witness in court cases stemming from disputed elections. "But in most instances they're not set to kick back to the voter if there is an undervote. After all, the public has a right to not vote for somebody for a particular office."

What recount teams will be looking for is whether stray or light marks on ballots signaled a voters' preference.

Secretary of State Mark Ritchie, a Democrat, said any process involving humans and machines is subject to error.

"Humans are marking ballots and some humans may not have pressed hard enough in the oval so the machine may not have caught their ballot's intention," Ritchie said. "The recount is designed to make sure every eligible ballot is included."

Michael Shamos, a Carnegie Mellon University computer science professor who studies election systems, said the dropoff didn't strike him as suspiciously large.

"All that means to me is they consider the presidential race more important than the Senate race," he said. "They either didn't make up their mind. They didn't care. They didn't make a mark in that race."

To be sure, similar dropoffs have happened in the past.

In 2000, the last year with both races on Minnesota's ballot, about 19,000 presidential voters were not recorded as casting a Senate vote. Fewer people voted that year, making the dropout rate similar to this year's.

Since Democratic candidate Mark Dayton won clearly that year, there was no review of ballots to see whether voters intentionally skipped the race.



Also, potentially good news for Begich:

Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens

Although Ted Stevens currently holds a lead of approximately 3,200 votes in ballots counted to date in Alaska's senate contest, there is good reason to believe that the ballots yet to be counted -- the vast majority of which are early and absentee ballots -- will allow Mark Begich to mitigate his disadvantage with Stevens and quite possibly pull ahead of him.

The reasoning behind this is simple: some early ballots have been processed, and among those ballots Begich substantially leads Stevens. A tally of Alaska's 40 house districts as taken from Alaska's Division of Elections webpage suggests that Begich has won about 61% of the early ballots counted so far, as compared with 48% of ballots cast on Election Day itself.



Nate Silver of 538 goes more in-depth, breaking down the relation of the percentage of early votes, to absentees, by precinct.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/uncounted-votes-may-push-begich-past.html

He makes a pretty convincing case that the Alaskan race can't be regarded as anything more than 50/50 either way.

[HBox]

I feel sad that I missed this before the election:

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/1l2-sObjKRg&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/1l2-sObjKRg&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[cougarjake13]

i liked this one




<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/3_rOCDG_btk&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/3_rOCDG_btk&color1=0xb1b1b1&color2=0xcfcfcf&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[K.C.]

Dailykos has an update on the Alaska ballot counting today.

They were counting 52,000 combined votes today from absentee ballots, and early votes.

With about 26,000 of those counted, Mark Begich has cut Ted Stevens' lead from 3253 to 971.

There's still the outstanding ballots that will be counted today, and then anywhere between 10,000-40,000 more absentees and 'questionable ballots' that will be counted/reviewed at a date TBD.

Looks like Begich will pick up this seat, if this trend continues.

The Franken/Coleman race seems set at a 206 vote difference as they prepare for the recount there.

[K.C.]

Dailykos has an update on the Alaska ballot counting today.

They were counting 52,000 combined votes today from absentee ballots, and early votes.

With about 26,000 of those counted, Mark Begich has cut Ted Stevens' lead from 3253 to 971.

There's still the outstanding ballots that will be counted today, and then anywhere between 10,000-40,000 more absentees and 'questionable ballots' that will be counted/reviewed at a date TBD.

Looks like Begich will pick up this seat, if this trend continues.

The Franken/Coleman race seems set at a 206 vote difference as they prepare for the recount there.


Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd...Begich pulls into the lead.

125,019 votes for Begich
125,016 votes for Steven

THREE FUCKING VOTES???????

There's supposedly still about 10,000 left to be counted today.

[K.C.]

Annnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnd...Begich pulls into the lead.

125,019 votes for Begich
125,016 votes for Stevens

THREE FUCKING VOTES???????

There's supposedly still about 10,000 left to be counted today.

Another update.

Begich goes up 813 votes.

He apparently did a tremendous job with the early votes and absentees, even better than his own campaign suspected. I'd say this thing is just about over. Most of the out-standing votes are in Begich strongholds.

I'd be comfortable projecting Senator #58.

Coleman/Franken hangs in the balance, as does Martin/Chambliss for numbers 59 and 60.

The Martin/Chambliss race is getting interesting. McCain is stumping for Chambliss, while Obama sent his political team down to help Martin.

[thejives]

Oh great KC!

Do you think Lieberman will resign if he's ousted from his chairmanships?

If so... will Shays replace him?

[K.C.]

Oh great KC!

Do you think Lieberman will resign if he's ousted from his chairmanships?

If so... will Shays replace him?

Obama said he wants Lieberman to be brought back into the fold, so I think he's going to stay.

But, yeah, Shays would probably be the likely guy to replace him. He's the most high profile Republican without a job in that state, off the top of my head.

[IMSlacker]

Mark Begich now leads Ted Stevens by 1,061 votes (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/11/alaska-update-begich-leads-by-1061.html)

[SonOfSmeagol]

http://www.news8.net/news/stories/1108/568957.html

and... g0ddammit I thought we were rid of that C&NT HRC!!!! I shouda known better.

What's next - goofy f*cking al g0re for EPA and phony john k&rry for SecDef?!?

ARGGG

[epo]

http://www.news8.net/news/stories/1108/568957.html

and... g0ddammit I thought we were rid of that C&NT HRC!!!! I shouda known better.

What's next - goofy f*cking al g0re for EPA and phony john k&rry for SecDef?!?

ARGGG

Wrong thread newbie! Try your anger here. (http://www.ronfez.net/forums/showthread.php?t=74244&page=30)

[SonOfSmeagol]

got over anger a long time ago, disgust is here to stay.

love,
"newbie"

[scottinnj]

ARGGG

Quit moving in on my mod quote. I'm damn proud of it.

[EliSnow]

Stevens Loses Alaska Senate Race (http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/18/alaska.senate.race/index.html)

[K.C.]

With 18% of the votes recounted, Al Franken has gained a net of 39 votes on Norm Coleman, shrinking his lead to 174.

This race will likely come down to ballot challenges. Both Franken and Coleman representatives have lawyers at every location, who can levy a challenge to any ballot deemed questionable.

The ballots are then set aside to be reviewed by a five judge panel, (supposedly) non-partisan panel which included SoS Mark Ritchie and appointments by both him and Republican Governor Pawlenty.

As of now, 123 ballots have been challenged in total.

[K.C.]

Coleman lead shrinks to 161 with 22% of the vote recounted.

That's a net shift of 54 votes to Franken.

223 ballots have been challenged by Coleman.
162 ballots have been challenged by Franken.

Here is an example of a challenged ballot by the Franken campaign:
http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/7999/1ballotjk2.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[EliSnow]

Coleman lead shrinks to 161 with 22% of the vote recounted.

That's a net shift of 54 votes to Franken.

223 ballots have been challenged by Coleman.
162 ballots have been challenged by Franken.

Here is an example of a challenged ballot by the Franken campaign:
[img=http://img262.imageshack.us/img262/7999/1ballotjk2.jpg] (http://imageshack.us)

Did they challenge that it went to Coleman? Although it would seem that the person changed their mind, I think you have to throw out that ballot altogether.

[K.C.]

Rasmussen Reports (11/19)

Chambliss 50%
Martin 46%
Undecided 4%

(52% are more less likely to vote for Martin if it means the Democrats getting a filibuster proof senate)


SurveryUSA (11/13)

87% of registered Georgians claim they are likely to vote in the runoff (only 67% voted in the General Election).


Research 2000/Daily Kos (11/10-11/12)

Chambliss - 49%
Martin - 46%
Undecided - 5%




The only poll that matters is the SurveryUSA one. The two candidate polls basically show that no one has changed their mind since election night.

But if 20% more voters actually show up for this runoff...there's absolutely no telling what could happen or who that favors.

[IMSlacker]

Did they challenge that it wentto Coleman? Although it would seem that the person changed their mind, I think you have to throw out that ballot altogether.

It doesn't say, but I'm guessing that the ballot is being thrown out and the Franken campaign wants it counted as a Franken vote.

[K.C.]

Did they challenge that it wentto Coleman? Although it would seem that the person changed their mind, I think you have to throw out that ballot altogether.

It's not clear.

My guess, from the type of machines they use, that the original scan would have rendered an incomplete for the Senate race on that ballot, so nobody got that vote.

Franken would be challenging that the intent of the ballot is clear, and that he should get that vote.

The StarTribune did a breakdown on what would be considered challengable and what wouldn't.

If they're accurate, my guess is that the ballot would be thrown out.




P.S. - Coleman's lead just shrunk another 4 votes in the time it took me to write that. It is now 157.

[IMSlacker]

Here's a link to more disputed ballots. (http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/) Minnesotans aren't too bright.

This one's my favorite

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/images/lizardpeopleb.jpg

[K.C.]

Here's a link to more disputed ballots. (http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/) Minnesotans aren't too bright.

This one's my favorite

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/features/2008/11/19_challenged_ballots/images/lizardpeopleb.jpg


If I were to judge each ballot listed on that site, it'd go:

Day 2
1 - disqualified (identifying mark)
2 - Franken
3 - Coleman
4 - disqualified (identifying mark, unclear choice)

Day 1
1 - Franken
2 - Coleman
3 - disqualified (unless the person marked outside the box for every office voted for, then it's a Franken vote)
4 - Franken
5 - disqualified (identifying mark, unclear choice)
6 - Franken
7 - disqualified (while the Coleman circle is more filled in, it's impossible to tell what the intention was)
8 - Franken
9 - Barkley
10 - Barkley
11 - disqualified (while the Franken campaign's argument that the voter was trying to underline his name instead of crossing it out seems sketchy, it's impossible to determine the intent).

Totals:
Disqualified - 6
Franken - 5
Coleman - 2
Barkley - 2

[K.C.]

Another thing to keep in mind:

Statistically, the recount slightly favored Franken, despite Coleman going in with a 200 vote lead, because of the number of undervotes (votes registered for the Presidential race, that weren't registered in the Senate race) and where many of the undervotes occured (Democratic leaning counties).

It has been suggested that, knowing this, the Coleman campaign has instructed their surrogates to challenge as many ballots as humanly possible, no matter how frivolous.

The rationale behind this, is that if Coleman can preserve his lead through the recount, he can create the sentiment, when the five judge panel reviews all the challenged ballots, that the election was stolen behind close doors, thus salvaging his political career.

[K.C.]

The vote margin is down to 142 for Coleman, with 317 ballots challenged by Coleman, and 247 challenged by Franken.

This is likely going to come down to the challenges.


Update: 142

[keithy_19]

This may just be me, but what fucking idiots are voting for Franken?

I mean, it's not that fucking hard to fucking vote.