Recession or Depression?

[ToiletCrusher]

Where are we at?

[burrben]

wait, me or the country? oh its depression either way

[Dude!]

wait, me or the country? oh its depression either way

qft

id say statistically and historically speaking
we are at the beginning of a severe recession

unfortunately, though, it seems we are on a precipice
and the slightest wind could knock us into
a full blown dust bowl depression

[Syd]

Recession. We're still in the upper end of healthy levels of unemployment on a national average. However states like Michigan, Nevada and any other real estate boom towns are pretty fucked.

[underdog]

http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/E/8/baghdadbob.jpg

Neither. Everything is just fine.

[TjM]

We Are Fucked!!

[SatCam]

Suicidal

[Tenbatsuzen]

Recession. Jesus. People who talk about depression are either not very well versed in history or going for shock value.

[Zorro]

Suicidal

'splains why Home Depot was out of rope

[SatCam]

Recession. Jesus. People who talk about depression are either not very well versed in history or going for shock value.

That's where you're wrong


New Hooverville just opened up


http://www.utwatch.org/images/hooverville.jpg

[epo]

GDP shrunk 5.8% in the 4th Quarter, which is clearly a recession. Yes its a stronger recession than we're used to...but a recession nonetheless.

[Zorro]

GDP shrunk 5.8% in the 4th Quarter, which is clearly a recession. Yes its a stronger recession than we're used to...but a recession nonetheless.

The problem with your analysis is that its backward looking. In 1930 GDP shrunk around 8% still a recession number and in '31 it only shrank around 6%... we still define those as depression years.

[Tenbatsuzen]

The problem with your analysis is that its backward looking. In 1930 GDP shrunk around 8% still a recession number and in '31 it only shrank around 6%... we still define those as depression years.

When we start rationing food and stuff, we'll be in a depression. The news media likes to go HOLY FUCKING SHIT over every little thing... yes we are in bad times, but this is not a depression.

[scottinnj]

The problem with your analysis is that its backward looking. In 1930 GDP shrunk around 8% still a recession number and in '31 it only shrank around 6%... we still define those as depression years.

Factor in the unemployment rate at the time too, close to 20%

[Zorro]

Factor in the unemployment rate at the time too, close to 20%

In 1930 it was 8.7%. Sound familiar?

[britneypablo]

<font color="deeppink"> recession....because if it were depression USA could go on prescribed drugs......oh wait.....:wallbash:

[DarkHippie]

I think that its a recession. I also think that the stimulus package will work by creating jobs (money and resume experience) until the economy cycles back.

[Crash]

Little bit of an over simplification, but two consecutive quarters of negative GDP equals a recession and four equals a depression.

Third and fourth quarters of 2008 were negative, so we're in a recession (I know, we all know that).

Jury's still out on the first quarter of 2009. If it's three in a row...

Really, I think four negative quarters/depression just means we're in it for the long haul instead of seeing an upturn out of this mess by the end of 2009.

[epo]

In 1930 it was 8.7%. Sound familiar?

In 1937 GDP dropped 18%. That's a depression. This ain't shit.

[lleeder]

Who would start this on a tuesday?

[SP1!]

http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/E/8/baghdadbob.jpg

Neither. Everything is just fine.

http://img158.imageshack.us/img158/7213/remaincalm.jpg

[Bob Impact]

Every reliable measure we have says GDP growth will be negative again Q1, although the estimates are all over the map, some people are pegging it at 11% but that's a little wild, realistic will be a 7% drop, which would be worse than Q4. You're probably looking at Q3 at the absolute best for any kind of flat GDP, and 2010 before any growth. More realistic is flattening out near the end of 09 with minimal growth through 2010.

I always heard the definition of a depression as 4 or more quarters of negative GDP growth or a 10% drop in a single quarter. It's really a moot point, this is the worst economic crisis any one of us has lived through, and while i'm not as much of a doom and gloom guy as some others, as long as the global economy is based on speculative wealth these things will continue to happen.

And the poll question is wrong, depression does not mean it "never" gets better, it just means it's longer or more severe.

[Syd]

I think that is the common, legitimate outlook is Q3 or Q4 is the true turning point when we begin our exit of the recession.

[Recyclerz]

I agree with most of Bob's points although the 1980-82 recession was a real rough one and at its worst had higher unemployment rates than we have now. That one was easier to conceptualize though because it was started by the Fed Reserve (Volcker) to crush the getting out of control inflation rates of the late '70's and not by the uncontrolled shitting of the bed by the financial intermediaries like we have now. (Of course most of you probably weren't alive for that one - damn I'm getting old.) :glurps:

If you want to be ahead of the curve on predicting when (and if) we're coming out of the downturn, keep an eye on natural resource commodity prices going up (metals like copper, etc.) and shipping and railroad companies reporting that sales are up. You'll be way ahead of 95% of the "experts" on TV in calling this.

[Syd]

Recyclerz is right, just watch UNP / BNI / CSX

their stocks follow the exact economic outlook

[Bob Impact]

I agree with most of Bob's points although the 1980-82 recession was a real rough one and at its worst had higher unemployment rates than we have now. That one was easier to conceptualize though because it was started by the Fed Reserve (Volcker) to crush the getting out of control inflation rates of the late '70's and not by the uncontrolled shitting of the bed by the financial intermediaries like we have now. (Of course most of you probably weren't alive for that one - damn I'm getting old.) :glurps:

If you want to be ahead of the curve on predicting when (and if) we're coming out of the downturn, keep an eye on natural resource commodity prices going up (metals like copper, etc.) and shipping and railroad companies reporting that sales are up. You'll be way ahead of 95% of the "experts" on TV in calling this.

Ding ding ding.

I'm watching freight companies tripping over each other to see who can drop their rates faster now, bad sign.

As far as the 80's I agree the jobless rate probably puts it over the edge for "how bad was this for Joe America", but my reasoning is that this had the potential of being an epoch changing event for our economic system, a chance to really fix things, and became the normal "patch it up" job. Long run this one hurts us again in a couple of years, much worse than any other.