MLB win totals over/unders

[hammersavage]

My buddy and I are running a baseball pool this year. $20 a man and here's the rules.

The wager is simple you must take 5 teams and pick their over/under for the season. Points will be based on how correct or incorrect you are; for example if you pick the Mets to win over 88.5 games and if they only win 80 games you will be minus 8.5 points. If you pick the Tigers over 82.5 and they win 86, that's plus 3.5 bringing your total to minus 5. The most points wins all the cash and bragging rights for a year.

NL team totals
Team Projected Wins
Atlanta Braves 83½ wins
Florida Marlins 76½ wins
New York Mets 88½ wins
Philadelphia Phillies 87½ wins
Washington Nationals 71½ wins
Chicago Cubs 91½ wins
Cincinnati Reds 80½ wins
Houston Astros 74½ wins
Milwaukee Brewers 80½ wins
Pittsburgh Pirates 69½ wins
St. Louis Cardinals 82½ wins
Arizona Diamondbacks 86½ wins
Colorado Rockies 77½ wins
Los Angeles Dodgers 82½ wins
San Diego Padres 71½ wins
San Francisco Giants 80½ wins

AL team totals
Baltimore Orioles 73½ wins
Boston Red Sox 94½ wins
New York Yankees 95½ wins
Tampa Bay Rays 87½ wins
Toronto Blue Jays 80½ wins
Chicago White Sox 79½ wins
Cleveland Indians 85½ wins
Detroit Tigers 82½ wins
Kansas City Royals 75½ wins
Minnesota Twins 83½ wins
Los Angeles Angels 89 ½ wins
Oakland Athletics 81½ wins
Seattle Mariners 72½ wins
Texas Rangers 73½ wins

Who do you think looks good?

[KnoxHarrington]

I'd take Giants and the under. 80 1/2 seems unlikely.

[Marc with a c]

twins over
royals under
tigers under
angels under

[hammersavage]

I'd take Giants and the under. 80 1/2 seems unlikely.

Agreed

twins over
royals under
tigers under
angels under

And agree on 3 of 4. I like the Royals a little bit, could be .500 team.

[Marc with a c]

Agreed

the pitching plus that division. i disagree.



And agree on 3 of 4. I like the Royals a little bit, could be .500 team.

they'll have to do it for me to believe it.

[hammersavage]

I like the Astros to be competative in that division. They could be at .500 as well so I like them over 74.5. I also don't see the Reds and Brewers winning 81. One of those teams has to be bad.

If the Tigers get off to a slow start, they will trade everything they have of value that makes money. So under for them.

I don't see how the Angels score runs and it looks like their pitching is the worst its been in a few years. But they won 100 games last year. 12 games drop is huge so it may not have value.

The A's have beat the book in seven of the last eight years. I don't love their pitching but the division is so wide open to me, I like their over.

I thought this theory made sense and was interesting:

The Plexiglas Principle
This theory says that any team that improves dramatically in one season is likely to decline the next season.
What teams made such dramatic moves from 2007 to 2008?
Tampa Bay Devil Rays +31
Chicago White Sox +17
Florida Marlins +13
Houston Astros +13
Chicago Cubs +12

The Rays are the obvious dilemma here. Can they sustain such a large increase? Since 1969 there have been 51 teams that have improved 19 or more games in the standings. Those teams have declined by an average of 7.2 games the next season. There have only been three previous improvements of thirty or more wins since 1970. Those three teams lost an average of 16.7 games the following season.
Over the years the only kind of teams that buck the Plexiglas Principle are teams with young strong starting pitching staffs. The 1991 Braves (Glavine & Smoltz), the 1968 Oakland A's (Hunter) and the 1984 New York Mets (Gooden & co.) are good examples. I think Tampa Bay fits that criteria. The Rays have the best collection of promising young talent in recent memory. James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza are all under 27. David Price (the first overall pick in the 2007 draft) is just 23. The rotation fits the profile of teams that can sustain large improvements. And the offense is also young with B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Carl Crawford all younger than 27. It's a team that's arguably still improving. As a result, there's no reason to mess with them even if the book says they'll decline by eight wins in 2009. In fact, I may even bet the other way that they don't decline much at all - even in the tough AL East.
The White Sox are another team I planned to take the under on in the offseason, but the oddsmakers agreed too much. They opened at 79.5 wins and are down to 77.5.

[Marc with a c]

the astros were my fifth team, i was little hesitant so i left them out.

[hammersavage]

Here's Baseball Prospectus projections. AL Central winner at 85 games and West at 84 seems low.

American League, ranked by projected 2009 record
East
New York Yankees 99 63
Boston Red Sox 95 67
Tampa Bay Rays 94 68
Toronto Blue Jays 76 86
Baltimore Orioles 75 87
Central
Cleveland Indians 85 77
Detroit Tigers 82 80
Chicago White Sox 76 86
Minnesota Twins 76 86
Kansas City Royals 75 87
West
Oakland Athletics 84 78
Los Angeles Angels 81 81
Seattle Mariners 76 86
Texas Rangers 70 92

National League, ranked by projected 2009 record
East
New York Mets 92 70
Philadelphia Phillies 87 75
Atlanta Braves 86 76
Washington Nationals 77 85
Florida Marlins 71 91
Central
Chicago Cubs 95 67
Milwaukee Brewers 84 78
St. Louis Cardinals 83 79
Cincinnati Reds 79 83
Houston Astros 69 93
Pittsburgh Pirates 64 98
West
Los Angeles Dodgers 92 70
Arizona Dbacks 88 74
San Francisco Giants 76 86
San Diego Padres 72 90
Colorado Rockies 71 91

[Dave's Cackle]

Cards over should be an easy choice.

[TripleSkeet]

Id take the over on the Phillies. They are a 90 win team this year.

[Marc with a c]

dodgers under as well.

[drjoek]

Every team will have a tie this season?

Dats Crazy

[led37zep]

I'd take Giants and the under. 80 1/2 seems unlikely.

Agreed

You're both on notice.

the pitching plus that division. i disagree.


I think people forget how bad the NL West is and just how powerful the Giants pitching could be this year (never mind they still don't have a decent bat).

[King Hippos Bandaid]

Dodgers over
Rays under
Mariners over
Orioles under
Indians over


insert generic jinx comments

also Id be interested in joining this pool, if applicable

[hammersavage]

Id take the over on the Phillies. They are a 90 win team this year.

Their over/under could be 7 and I couldn't take the over. That would mean I'd have to be happy for even 1 win. You are probably correct though.

insert generic jinx comments

also Id be interested in joining this pool, if applicable

I'll never turn down a jinx's money. Since you are close, you're in.

[hammersavage]

Accurscore has the AL Central as follows:

Twins 86
Indians 83
White Sox 82
Tigers 79
Royals 75



Again, I like the Royals at .500.

[disneyspy]

Accurscore has the AL Central as follows:

Twins 86
Indians 83
White Sox 82
Tigers 79
Royals 75



Again, I like the Royals at .500.

no way will the division be that close and now that the tigs have dumped sheffield they'll be much better,i have to go vote off the gayland indigays now

[epo]

Cards over should be an easy choice.

You are right. Once Pujols is suspended for steroids, they are gonna blow.

UNDER.

[hammersavage]

no way will the division be that close and now that the tigs have dumped sheffield they'll be much better,i have to go vote off the gayland indigays now

Again, I don't think the Tigers win 83 because they will have a sell off when they realize no fans are buying tickets in this economy.

[hammersavage]

I actually don't know what to make of the NL West the more I look into it.


The Dodgers have a pretty awesome lineup, at least the top anyway, and pretty good starting pitching. They played great with Manny for a portion of last year, could be over a whole year this year.

The Diamondbacks have Webb, Haren, and a steal with Garland. Still very young and balanced.

And that's not even the best rotation. The Giants have the reigning Cy Young, Randy Johnson with something in the tank, Cain, Zito and Sanchez filling out the staff. That's brutal. I don't know if they'll have the offense to win the division, but they should be competitive.

The Padres should blow and the Rockies will be typical Rockies.

I think it could be a great race.

[razorboy]

Indians under
Yankees under
Astros over
Marlins over
Rangers over

[hammersavage]

Indians under
Yankees under
Astros over
Marlins over
Rangers over

I'm with you on everything but the Indians.


I think the Royals and Indians over achieve in the central while the Tigers and White Sox under achieve.

[foodcourtdruide]

Id take the over on the Phillies. They are a 90 win team this year.

I dunno. The team I was looking at from the NL East was The Braves and under. I'd never bet against the Braves though.

Rockies and under too.

[Dave's Cackle]

You are right. Once Pujols is suspended for steroids, they are gonna blow.

UNDER.

You live in Milwaukee. Unless you're talking about beer or what it's like to live in a town whose best days will never come - shut the fuck up.

[TheWalkingDead]

dodgers under as well.

You lost all your LA privileges.

[razorboy]

I'm with you on everything but the Indians.


I think the Royals and Indians over achieve in the central while the Tigers and White Sox under achieve.

The X factor for the tribe is Eric Wedge, and I have faith in his suckosity.

[hammersavage]

I locked into:

CUBS O 91.5: I don't think there's too much value because the # is so high but I think the # should have been 93.5 so I think it's a winner.
BLUE JAYS U 80.5: This is the year they fall off. I don't see how they score runs and after Halladay, they don't have the pitching either. Have to play the Yanks, Sox and Rays almost 60 times.
TIGERS U 82.5: They have the talent to go over but if they get of to a slow start, they will sell off because of their finances.
ROYALS O 75.5: Trendy pick, sure, but they have so much talent for the first time in a while and I want to root for it.
ANGELS U 89.5: They won 100 last year so this # is pretty low. But their pitching is a huge question mark with injuries and I don't know where they get enough consistent offense. They'll probably win the division still, but I hope with 86 wins.


Wanted to take the Yankees under but I'm a pussy. Liked the Astros over and probably the Dodgers too. But I could only pick 5.

[hammersavage]

22 total entries, Hippo. Here's what they look like:

NL team totals
Atlanta Braves 83½ wins 3 Over
Florida Marlins 76½ wins 4 Over
New York Mets 88½ wins 8 Over/4 Under
Philadelphia Phillies 87½ wins 4 Over/1 Under
Washington Nationals 71½ wins 1 Over/2 Under
Chicago Cubs 91½ wins 4 Over/1 Under
Cincinnati Reds 80½ wins 1 Over/1 Under
Houston Astros 74½ wins 1 Over/3 Under
Milwaukee Brewers 80½ wins 1 Under
Pittsburgh Pirates 69½ wins 2 Over/2 Under
St. Louis Cardinals 82½ wins Kev 1 Over
Arizona Diamondbacks 86½ wins 3 Under
Colorado Rockies 77½ wins
Los Angeles Dodgers 82½ wins 7 Over
San Diego Padres 71½ wins 4 Under
San Francisco Giants 80½ wins 1 Over

AL team totals
Baltimore Orioles 73½ wins 1 Over/1 Under
Boston Red Sox 94½ wins 3 Under
New York Yankees 95½ wins 3 Over/2 Under
Tampa Bay Rays 87½ wins 2 Over/3 Under
Toronto Blue Jays 80½ wins 1 Over/2 Under
Chicago White Sox 79½ wins 3 Over/3 Under
Cleveland Indians 85½ wins 2 Over
Detroit Tigers 82½ wins 2 Over/2 Under
Kansas City Royals 75½ wins 5 Over
Minnesota Twins 83½ wins 1 Over
Los Angeles Angels 89 ½ wins 6 Under
Oakland Athletics 81½ wins 1 Over
Seattle Mariners 72½ wins 4 Over/1 Under
Texas Rangers 73½ wins 2 Over/1 Under


So the biggest plays were Mets Over and Dodgers Over. LA Angels the biggest under.

[hammersavage]

Here's the final numbers. Probably hard to read cuz it won't paste in format. The biggest difference in the NL was the Mets -18.5 and the Rockies +14.5. In the AL, the Indians -20.5 and the Rangers +13.5.

NL team totals
Team Projected Wins Actual Wins Difference
Atlanta Braves 83½ wins 86 +2.5
Florida Marlins 76½ wins 87 +10.5
New York Mets 88½ wins 70 -18.5
Philadelphia Phillies 87½ wins 93 +5.5
Washington Nationals 71½ wins 59 -12.5
Chicago Cubs 91½ wins 83 -8.5
Cincinnati Reds 80½ wins 78 -1.5
Houston Astros 74½ wins 74 -.5
Milwaukee Brewers 80½ wins 80 -.5
Pittsburgh Pirates 69½ wins 62 -6.5
St. Louis Cardinals 82½ wins 91 +8.5
Arizona Diamondbacks 86½ wins 70 -16.5
Colorado Rockies 77½ wins 92 +14.5
Los Angeles Dodgers 82½ wins 95 +12.5
San Diego Padres 71½ wins 75 +3.5
San Francisco Giants 80½ wins 88 +7.5

AL team totals Projected Wins Actual Wins Difference
Baltimore Orioles 73½ wins 64 -9.5
Boston Red Sox 94½ wins 95 +.5
New York Yankees 95½ wins 103 +7.5
Tampa Bay Rays 87½ wins 84 -3.5
Toronto Blue Jays 80½ wins 75 -5.5
Chicago White Sox 79½ wins 79 -.5
Cleveland Indians 85½ wins 65 -20.5
Detroit Tigers 82½ wins 86 +3.5
Kansas City Royals 75½ wins 65 -10.5
Minnesota Twins 83½ wins 86 +2.5
Los Angeles Angels 89 ½ wins 97 +7.5
Oakland Athletics 81½ wins 75 -6.5
Seattle Mariners 72½ wins 85 +12.5
Texas Rangers 73½ wins 87 +13.5


I was not good at this.

[disneyspy]

Here's the final numbers. Probably hard to read cuz it won't paste in format. The biggest difference in the NL was the Mets -18.5 and the Rockies +14.5. In the AL, the Indians -20.5 and the Rangers +13.5.



I was not good at this.

hard to believe,tiger fan

[hammersavage]

hard to believe,tiger fan

Hey, welcome to the 7 game blown lead club.

[King Hippos Bandaid]

I was 4 for 5


How did I do, is there a tie breaker


Dodgers Over
Orioles Under
Rays Under
Mariners Over


Injuns Under

[hammersavage]

you'd be fine if you actually picked the Indians under

[King Hippos Bandaid]

you'd be fine if you actually picked the Indians under


doh I meant over


4 out of 5 was not good enough I guess

[hammersavage]

doh I meant over


4 out of 5 was not good enough I guess

your final total was +17.5. Pretty good. Would have been +57 if not for the Indians.

The winner was +48.5. She hit on the Marlins over, Cubs under, Dodgers over, Rays under and Rangers over. Pretty sick.

[King Hippos Bandaid]

your final total was +17.5. Pretty good. Would have been +57 if not for the Indians.

The winner was +48.5. She hit on the Marlins over, Cubs under, Dodgers over, Rays under and Rangers over. Pretty sick.


oh.... it was cumulative #s

fucking Injuns

[hammersavage]

oh.... it was cumulative #s

fucking Injuns

she went 5 for 5 anyway besides having the best #

[TripleSkeet]

Like a true gambler, I spotted the lock, and didnt need to look at anything else.