2008 Election Polling Thread

[HBox]

Now that the conventions have finished there are a shit ton of polls out now everyday. There are up to 7 daily tracking polls a day. Every night I will post in this thread the polls released that day. If someone else wants to post the congressional polls feel free. I'm gonna have enough trouble keeping up with the Presidential ones.

Feel free to comment on the polls here. Hopefully we can keep the poll cherry picking to a minimum now. Anyway, here's the polls from 9/12.

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 47, McCain 46 Barr 2, Nader 2

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 45 McCain 44

Gallup
McCain 48 Obama 45

Rasmussen
McCain 49 Obama 46

National Polls

AP 9/5-9/10
McCain 48 Obama 44, Barr 1, Nader 1

Ipsos/McClatchey 9/5-9/9
McCain 46 Obama 45 Nader 2 Barr 1

State Polls

Nevada - Public Opinion Strategies 9/6-9/8
McCain 46 Obama 45

Washington - Rasmussen 9/10
Obama 49 McCain 47

Ohio - University of Cincinnati 9/5-9/10
McCain 48 Obama 44

Missouri - Rasmussen 9/11
McCain 51 Obama 46

Oregon - Hoffmann Research Group 9/8-9/9
Obama 46 McCain 39 Nader 1 Barr 1

Oklahoma - Rasmussen 9/11
McCain 62 Obama 32

New Jersey - Marist 9/5-9/8
Obama 48 McCain 45

[Zorro]

Wow...surprise dabout Jersey. I thought it was solidly Blue

[HBox]

Forgot one:

North Carolina - Research 2000 9/8-9/10
McCain 55 Obama 38

[JerseySean]

Wow...surprise dabout Jersey. I thought it was solidly Blue

Republicans always poll well in NJ in September and October. Bush only lost NJ by 5.7 points in 2004 but it will go for Obama. If it doesnt, it will be an indicator of a national blowout for McCain. Good thread.

[scottinnj]

Republicans always poll well in NJ in September and October. Bush only lost NJ by 5.7 points in 2004 but it will go for Obama. If it doesnt, it will be an indicator of a national blowout for McCain. Good thread.

This is true. The polls always give Jersey GOPs hope that their vote will help their candidate. Then the actual vote is tallied, and our electoral college goes for the Democratic candidate.

2004 is a good example. 73% voter turnout. Senator Kerry wins. NJ voter turnout for Presdential Elections is incredible compared to the national average.

Big Blue State. JerseySean is right. If McCain wins NJ, and you'll find out early on election night, McCain wins the election.

[Snoogans]

This pole says Obama is gonna win easy:

http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0boI2A4bAKdaA/610x.jpg

[scottinnj]

Here's the Proof (http://publicmind.fdu.edu/quietly/)

If Lautenberg is leading his opponent by double digits, there is no way NJ is going to elect McCain.

Some of that lead in the polls is due to a lack of campaigning by Zimmer, but Lautenberg is probably the worst Senator NJ has ever sent to Washington. And we all know it. And we did it TWICE.

[cougarjake13]

who's barr ???

[scottinnj]

who's barr ???

The ex-GOP who is now running for president with the Libertarian Party.

He's the anti-matter to Nader's Green Party matter.

[HBox]

Here's the Proof (http://publicmind.fdu.edu/quietly/)

If Lautenberg is leading his opponent by double digits, there is no way NJ is going to elect McCain.

Some of that lead in the polls is due to a lack of campaigning by Zimmer, but Lautenberg is probably the worst Senator NJ has ever sent to Washington. And we all know it. And we did it TWICE.

I don't think he's been bad but there's no way I'm voting for him. I was concerned he was too old last time he was elected. I can't believe he's running again. The guy can barely put together a sentence anymore. I wish Rob Andrews won that primary.

[JerseySean]

Here's the Proof (http://publicmind.fdu.edu/quietly/)

If Lautenberg is leading his opponent by double digits, there is no way NJ is going to elect McCain.

Some of that lead in the polls is due to a lack of campaigning by Zimmer, but Lautenberg is probably the worst Senator NJ has ever sent to Washington. And we all know it. And we did it TWICE.

Thats not proof. Dick Zimmer is a statewide candidate with 40% name ID. that is apples to oranges. In 2000, Gore blew Bush out but Franks within 3 pints of beating the much better funded Corzine. Im with you, but the Senate race is no indicator.

[HBox]

National Poll
Newsweek polling dates unknown
Obama 46 McCain 46

[ChrisTheCop]

National Poll
Newsweek polling dates unknown
Obama 46 McCain 46

It's like theyre reading my mind!

One of them shouldve just announced, that if they win the election, theyll take the other guy as their VP.

[K.C.]

I'm going to keep a running tab of the electoral college vote based on the most recent polls for each state.

I'll bold the races within 5%

Update for 9/13: As of right now, here's the most recent poll in each state:

Alabama - McCain 55%, Obama 35% (09/09)
Alaska - McCain 64%, Obama 33% (09/09)
Arizona - McCain 44%, Obama 36% (08/16)
Arkansas - McCain 47%, Obama 37% (07/14)
California - Obama 50%, McCain 38% (08/20)
Colorado - Obama 49%, McCain 46% (09/10)
Connecticut - Obama 51%, McCain 36% (07/31)
Delaware - Obama 50%, McCain 41% (02/28)
District of Columbia - No Data
Florida - McCain 50%, Obama 42% (09/10)
Georgia - McCain 56%, Obama 38% (09/10)
Hawaii - Obama 61%, McCain 31% (02/28)
Idaho - McCain 68%, Obama 29% (09/09)
Illinois - Obama 53%, McCain 38% (08/12)
Indiana - McCain 45%, Obama 43% (08/30)
Iowa - Obama 55%, McCain 40% (09/02)
Kansas - McCain 58%, Obama 35% (08/20)
Kentucky - McCain 55%, Obama 37% (08/11)
Louisiana - McCain 55%, Obama 38% (08/17)
Maine - Obama 52%, McCain 38% (09/10)
Maryland - Obama 52%, McCain 38% (09/05)
Massachusetts - Obama 49%, McCain 37% (08/05)
Michigan - Obama 51%, McCain 46% (09/10)
Minnesota - Obama 53%, McCain 41% (09/02)
Mississippi - McCain 52%, Obama 39% (09/10)
Missouri - McCain 51%, Obama 46% (09/11)
Montana - McCain 53%, Obama 42% (09/08)
Nebraska - McCain 50%, Obama 32% (07/28)
Nevada - McCain 46%, Obama 45% (09/10)
New Hampshire - Obama 51%, McCain 45% (09/09)
New Jersey - Obama 48%, McCain 45% (09/08)
New Mexico - McCain 49%, Obama 47% (09/08)
New York - Obama 47%, McCain 39% (08/14)
North Carolina - McCain 57%, Obama 38% (09/10)
North Dakota - McCain 55%, Obama 41% (09/08)
Ohio - McCain 48%, Obama 47% (09/10)
Oklahoma - McCain 65%, Obama 32% (09/07)
Oregon - Obama 48%, McCain 41% (08/07)
Pennsylvania - Obama 48%, McCain 45% (09/07)
Rhode Island - Obama 51%, McCain 30% (08/20)
South Carolina - McCain 53%, Obama 40% (07/23)
South Dakota - McCain 47%, Obama 43% (07/09)
Tennessee - McCain 56%, Obama 32% (08/20)
Texas - McCain 50%, Obama 41% (08/21)
Utah - McCain 62%, Obama 23% (08/15)
Vermont - Obama 63%, McCain 29% (02/28)
Virginia - McCain 50%, Obama 46% (09/09)
Washington - Obama 49%, McCain 45% (09/07)
West Virginia - McCain 44%, Obama 39% (09/08)
Wisconsin - Obama 46%, McCain 43% (09/07)
Wyoming - McCain 58%, Obama 39% (09/10)


If the election were held today, McCain would win 270-268.


Analysis: Florida, for the moment looks like it's solidly in the McCain camp. He's hit 50% in three of the last four polls, and is outside the margin of error.

The New Jersey number could be a Palin-effect bounce from the suburbs, but most likely, it's an abberation. I don't think Obama has much to worry about there.

Same with McCain and South Dakota. It's an older poll. Most likely, the South Dakota number is closer to the North Dakota number if a poll was done now.

Obama is in striking distance in Indiana, West Virginia, and Virginia, or 'the rust belt.' That's based on the economy. McCain should, from a historical perspective, win all three easily. The Republicans haven't lost Indiana or Virginia in decades, and the Democrats haven't won West Virginia since 1996.

But Obama support in the rust belt would be economy driven. I still would expect McCain to maintain all three, but he'll have to spend time there to hold the states. Conversely, Obama would be wise to deploy Bill Clinton to those states.

New Mexico shifted drastically in this last poll. Theoretically it should be a competitive state, but we'll see if more polls hold true to the current number.


All told, Obama's in good shape, despite the last two very good weeks for McCain.


He has several shots to pick off states. All it'll take is a couple.

[Don Stugots]

It's like theyre reading my mind!

One of them shouldve just announced, that if they win the election, theyll take the other guy as their VP.

that would make it easier for me to figure out who i am voting for.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 47 McCain 47

Diageo/Hotline
McCain 45 Obama 44

Gallup
McCain 47 Obama 45

Rasmussen
McCain 49 Obama 46

State Polls

Nevada - Rasmussen 9/11
McCain 49 Obama 46

[NewYorkDragons80]

What I've noticed about polls released this week was that McCain polls stronger when Bob Barr is included than when he isn't

[NewYorkDragons80]

It's like theyre reading my mind!

One of them shouldve just announced, that if they win the election, theyll take the other guy as their VP.
Better yet, eliminate running mates altogether and just have the opposing candidate serve as VP.

[K.C.]

What I've noticed about polls released this week was that McCain polls stronger when Bob Barr is included than when he isn't

Barr support is a little weird to gauge, but I think he's benefiting some from the Appalachia types who would have voted for Hillary or Edwards because they're economically liberal, but won't vote for Obama because he's black.

Nader wouldn't draw those people, despite being economically liberal, because they probably have just as much a problem with him because he's Arab.

[TheMojoPin]

Better yet, eliminate running mates altogether and just have the opposing candidate serve as VP.

That's how it used to be back in the day.

[JerseySean]

That's how it used to be back in the day.

When did it end 1824?

[HBox]

State Polls

Georgia - Strategic Vision 9/8
McCain 52 Obama 39

South Dakota - Rasmussen 9/11
McCain 54 Obama 37

Utah - Dan Jones 9/10
McCain 62 Obama 24

[CousinDave]

Over the last 3-4 election cycles the Zogby poll has been the most accurate.

Also look at European odds makers - its legal to bet on US elections.

Zogby Poll (http://www.zogby.com/)

[HBox]

Zogby polls have been bad this cycle, and the Zogby Interactive polls have been total garbage. There were a bunch of those released today but I'm not going to bother posting shit such as Obama leading in North Carolina by 1.5 but somehow losing Virginia by 7.

Rasmussen and Survey USA have been the two most accurate major pollsters this year.

[JerseySean]

As I watch this race unfold, I think Barack's campaign is coming apart at the seems. His campaign peeked back in February when he beat Hillary in the Potomac primaries. Since then he has had to deal with Rev Wright, Hillary's surge, Hillary aides needling him in the press, etc. He got most of the media coverage over the summer, and he could never keep McCain down more than 6-8 points. With a favorable media, a horrendous economy and a bad war that his opponent supported coupled with an incredibly sour mood in the nation, no confidence from the American people and an overwhelming majority of Americans thinking that this nation's best days are behind us, THERE IS NOT ONE NATIONAL POLL THAT HAS OBAMA LEADING. He still has Hillary people needling him in the press. He has been phenominally off message for two weeks straight and he just keeps losing ground.

Unlike for John McCain, who has been in public life for 30 years, this guy may have something to hide. He has NEVER faced a real general election challenge in his life. He won a few tough primaries and he has lost one. this guy is grossly underperforming in states like, New Jersey.

the McCain campaign will not slow down or back off.

"Current campaign aides and other Republicans who've closely watched the race, however, have a very different response to the media elites and good-government scolds: We don't care what you think."

I dont see how State Senator Soestro pulls this thing off. Especially with a nuclear option coming. Unless he BLOWS the DOORS OFF in debates, which he has proven to be mediocre at. The only saving grace for Obama is that he registered dumb college kids that dont know shit.

http://l.yimg.com/img.tv.yahoo.com/tv/us/img/site/74/96/0000007496_20060920143745.jpg

[JerseySean]

Over the last 3-4 election cycles the Zogby poll has been the most accurate.

Also look at European odds makers - its legal to bet on US elections.

Zogby Poll (http://www.zogby.com/)

2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 50.8 51.0 51.0 541013 +0.2
2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 47.9 48.0 48.0 422453 -0.8

For the first time, McCain is worht more on the policial futures markets than Obama. This is usually a good indicator.

[TheMojoPin]

As I watch this race unfold, I think Barack's campaign is coming apart at the seems. His campaign peeked back in February when he beat Hillary in the Potomac primaries. Since then he has had to deal with Rev Wright, Hillary's surge, Hillary aides needling him in the press, etc. He got most of the media coverage over the summer, and he could never keep McCain down more than 6-8 points. With a favorable media, a horrendous economy and a bad war that his opponent supported coupled with an incredibly sour mood in the nation, no confidence from the American people and an overwhelming majority of Americans thinking that this nation's best days are behind us, THERE IS NOT ONE NATIONAL POLL THAT HAS OBAMA LEADING. He still has Hillary people needling him in the press. He has been phenominally off message for two weeks straight and he just keeps losing ground.

Unlike for John McCain, who has been in public life for 30 years, this guy may have something to hide. He has NEVER faced a real general election challenge in his life. He won a few tough primaries and he has lost one. this guy is grossly underperforming in states like, New Jersey.

the McCain campaign will not slow down or back off.



I dont see how State Senator Soestro pulls this thing off. Especially with a nuclear option coming. Unless he BLOWS the DOORS OFF in debates, which he has proven to be mediocre at. The only saving grace for Obama is that he registered dumb college kids that dont know shit.

http://l.yimg.com/img.tv.yahoo.com/tv/us/img/site/74/96/0000007496_20060920143745.jpg

...

Whut?

[HBox]

Was that supposed to be racist? Or sexist? Or both?

[JerseySean]

Was that supposed to be racist? Or sexist? Or both?

Nah dude, it is a character from the Office, if you dont watch the show, you dont get it.

[TheMojoPin]

Nah dude, it is a character from the Office, if you dont watch the show, you dont get it.

They talked about all the college kids voting for Obama as just being dumb and "not knowing shit?" Or you're just deciding anyone in college voting for Obama is Mindy?

These dramatic declarations of yours are pretty silly before any of the debates happen.

[celery]

The only saving grace for Obama is that he registered dumb college kids that dont know shit.


Pretty tough to take anything JerseySean says seriously after a blanket statement like this.

[JerseySean]

They talked about all the college kids voting for Obama as just being dumb and "not knowing shit?" Or you're just deciding anyone in college voting for Obama is Mindy?

These dramatic declarations of yours are pretty silly before any of the debates happen.

Many of them dont. A good chunk of the are Kelly from the Office.

[TheMojoPin]

Many of them dont. A good chunk of the are Kelly from the Office.

I'm going to call you Proclamation Pete from now on.

[JerseySean]

I'm going to call you Proclamation Pete from now on.

Please do.

[K.C.]

New Polls: Georgia, South Dakota, Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia (All except the first two are Zogby ones)

Update for 9/14: As of right now, here's the most recent poll in each state:

Alabama - McCain 55%, Obama 35% (09/09)
Alaska - McCain 64%, Obama 33% (09/09)
Arizona - McCain 44%, Obama 36% (08/16)
Arkansas - McCain 47%, Obama 37% (07/14)
California - Obama 50%, McCain 38% (08/20)
Colorado - McCain 47.5%, Obama 45.5% (09/12)
Connecticut - Obama 51%, McCain 36% (07/31)
Delaware - Obama 50%, McCain 41% (02/28)
District of Columbia - No Data
Florida - McCain 51.2%, Obama 41.8% (09/12)
Georgia - McCain 52%, Obama 39% (09/11)
Hawaii - Obama 61%, McCain 31% (02/28)
Idaho - McCain 68%, Obama 29% (09/09)
Illinois - Obama 53%, McCain 38% (08/12)
Indiana - McCain 45%, Obama 43% (08/30)
Iowa - Obama 55%, McCain 40% (09/02)
Kansas - McCain 58%, Obama 35% (08/20)
Kentucky - McCain 55%, Obama 37% (08/11)
Louisiana - McCain 55%, Obama 38% (08/17)
Maine - Obama 52%, McCain 38% (09/10)
Maryland - Obama 52%, McCain 38% (09/05)
Massachusetts - Obama 49%, McCain 37% (08/05)
Michigan - Obama 49%, McCain 43.3% (09/12)
Minnesota - Obama 53%, McCain 41% (09/02)
Mississippi - McCain 52%, Obama 39% (09/10)
Missouri - McCain 48.5%, Obama 42.4% (09/12)
Montana - McCain 53%, Obama 42% (09/08)
Nebraska - McCain 50%, Obama 32% (07/28)
Nevada - McCain 50.1%, Obama 42.5% (09/12)
New Hampshire - McCain 49.1%, Obama 42.8% (09/12)
New Jersey - Obama 48%, McCain 45% (09/08)
New Mexico - Obama 45.6%, McCain 44.1% (09/12)
New York - Obama 47%, McCain 39% (08/14)
North Carolina - Obama 48.1%, McCain 46.6% (09/12)
North Dakota - McCain 55%, Obama 41% (09/08)
Ohio - McCain 49.8%, Obama 43.9% (09/10)
Oklahoma - McCain 65%, Obama 32% (09/07)
Oregon - Obama 48%, McCain 41% (08/07)
Pennsylvania - McCain 49.1%, Obama 44.3% (09/12)
Rhode Island - Obama 51%, McCain 30% (08/20)
South Carolina - McCain 53%, Obama 40% (07/23)
South Dakota - McCain 54%, Obama 37% (09/11)
Tennessee - McCain 56%, Obama 32% (08/20)
Texas - McCain 50%, Obama 41% (08/21)
Utah - McCain 62%, Obama 23% (08/15)
Vermont - Obama 63%, McCain 29% (02/28)
Virginia - McCain 50.3%, Obama 43.8% (09/12)
Washington - Obama 49%, McCain 45% (09/07)
West Virginia - McCain 44%, Obama 39% (09/08)
Wisconsin - Obama 46%, McCain 43% (09/07)
Wyoming - McCain 58%, Obama 39% (09/10)

State Gains for McCain: PA, NH, CO
State Gains for Obama: NM, NC
Overall Electoral Shift: McCain +14

If the election were held today, McCain would win 284-254.


Analysis: Zogby has been standing out on a limb all election cycle with his polls. This time, it's no different, so some of these numbers could be completely off.

Let's go on what seems right to me, though. I buy the new South Dakota poll (a non-Zogby one), that strongly puts that state in McCain's camp.

I also buy McCain's gains in Nevada, Ohio, Missouri, Virginia, and Florida, effectively taking those states out of the margin of error for the time being.

After all, McCain's had a fantastic couple of weeks.

What I do not buy are his gains in New Hampshire, nor do I buy him taking the lead in Pennsylvania.

Furthermore, and maybe the oddest Zogby number of this round of polls is Obama actually LEADING in North Carolina....again, no f-ing way.

But, despite some of the inconsistencies from state to state right now, the electoral count is pretty accurate, I believe.

I do think McCain has a slight lead right now.

[TheMojoPin]

McCain definitely has a lead, but I submit that until Zogby gets their act together we make like FiveThirtyEight and subtract them from poll analysis. Their numbers have been sloppy and all over the place during this election cycle.

[CousinDave]

Zogby polls have been bad this cycle, and the Zogby Interactive polls have been total garbage. There were a bunch of those released today but I'm not going to bother posting shit such as Obama leading in North Carolina by 1.5 but somehow losing Virginia by 7.

Rasmussen and Survey USA have been the two most accurate major pollsters this year.


Zogby will get much better as we get closer to the election. The interactive polls are about as indicative as a poll on Wackbag. Zogby also polls the most likely voters, not just registered voters, or likely voters. However with the increase in newly registered voters I think most of the polls are probably going to be off. It has to be an extremely difficult year for pollsters.

Also note the margin of error (I'm not saying post the margin of error) it just has to be taken in consideration as to how accurate the poll really is.

Its a shame none of the campaigns will release their internal polls - they pay millions for those polls and frame the campaign around the daily/weekly results. You can get somewhat of an idea of what their own polls are saying by how candidates and their campaign act.

I believe Obama's polls have been telling him he's in serious trouble, not only of losing, but in losing big. When he picked Biden and Biden kept screaming Scranton that told me Obama is in serious trouble among Catholic Democrats. Also keep in mind Obama has never had to run against a Republican (don't say Alan Keys, that guy is just a cartoon character, no different than Rev Al running)

David Axelrod, while brilliant in the primary doesn't really know what he's doing when it comes to running against a Republican either, his only experience outside of Democrat machine Chicago politics was in Elliot Spitzer's campaign for Governor of NY and Deval Patrick in MA.

[JerseySean]

McCain definitely has a lead, but I submit that until Zogby gets their act together we make like FiveThirtyEight and subtract them from poll analysis. Their numbers have been sloppy and all over the place during this election cycle.

Seconded

[JerseySean]

David Axelrod, while brilliant in the primary doesn't really know what he's doing when it comes to running against a Republican either, his only experience outside of Democrat machine Chicago politics was in Elliot Spitzer's campaign for Governor of NY and Deval Patrick in MA.

Two tough ones

[JerseySean]

In Trade numbers

http://www.intrade.com/

[K.C.]

A few local polls (and one Rasmussen) I stumbled upon on Google News that are new. They'll be factored in, in tomorrow's update:


Washington: Obama leads 49-47 (Rasmussen- 9/10)
Minnesota: Tied 45-45 (Star Tribuine 9/13)
Iowa: Obama leads 52-45 (Iowa Poll 9/13)

[CousinDave]

They talked about all the college kids voting for Obama as just being dumb and "not knowing shit?" Or you're just deciding anyone in college voting for Obama is Mindy?

These dramatic declarations of yours are pretty silly before any of the debates happen.

I don't think the "college kids" will come out in the numbers the Obama people are praying for. Take the NH primary vote - they didn't turn out even close to what the Obama people expected.

This is always one of the biggest jokes in US Presidential elections - the young people vote, every cycle a candidate expects the young people will carry them into the White House, the only exception in Ronald Regan in 1984, then 18-34 years olds went heavy for Regan

[TheMojoPin]

I don't think the "college kids" will come out in the numbers the Obama people are praying for. Take the NH primary vote - they didn't turn out even close to what the Obama people expected.

This is always one of the biggest jokes in US Presidential elections - the young people vote, every cycle a candidate expects the young people will carry them into the White House, the only exception in Ronald Regan in 1984, then 18-34 years olds went heavy for Regan

As mentioned before, there was a very significant "youth surge" in 2004 (for both sides), but the Democratic young voters were offset by the rallying evangelical base.

Nobody here is talking about anyone "relying on college kids," and it's pretty clear the Democrats aren't doing that. It's a useful bloc he'll get a lot of votes out of, but it's not what can push him over the top.

[CousinDave]

Two tough ones


Are you saying the 2006 campaign for governor of NY and MA were tough for the Democrats? I realize both of those states had Republican governors, but neither was running for reelection, and the Republicans didn't run good candidates, it was also a big year for Democrats, and those are Democrat states.

Also I doubt Axelrod was heavily involved in either campaign.

I think he just learned a lot from the 2004 Edwards campaign and knew to focus on those caucus states in the primary for Obama. Regardless I think the guy is pretty clueless right now, he's probably sitting by his phone waiting for James Carvell and Paul Begala to call him back.

[epo]

As mentioned before, there was a very significant "youth surge" in 2004 (for both sides), but the Democratic young voters were offset by the rallying evangelical base.

Nobody here is talking about anyone "relying on college kids," and it's pretty clear the Democrats aren't doing that. It's a useful bloc he'll get a lot of votes out of, but it's not what can push him over the top.

The Obama campaign is not banking on the youth vote at all, yet they are taking measures to ensure that they will show up.

What do you think the text message about the VP was about?

[K.C.]

Mojo's right about the college kid thing. They did vote in '04.



But it doesn't matter. There's two key pivotal moments (or non-moments) that will decide this campaign:

The first is the final debate. Obama has to dominate McCain on the economy and leave a lasting impression.

He should be able to do this on paper. Obama is way more in-tune. The problem, however, is that having watched a dozen or so previous Obama debates....he's not a great debater.

I don't really remember one standout debate performance for him. I think he routinely got the shit kicked out of him by Hillary, and Edwards, and even Biden in the Democratic Primary debates.

For some reason, he just didn't seem to lend well to the format.



And the second deciding factor is the economic news between now and election day. People do have a breaking point, where if things get bad enough, they'll stop voting guns, and social issues, and wedge issues, and cave to voting their economic interests.

Suprisingly enough, we're not quite there a lot people....we're close...but not quite.

[CousinDave]

The Obama campaign is not banking on the youth vote at all, yet they are taking measures to ensure that they will show up.

What do you think the text message about the VP was about?


One of the smartest moves ever made by a political campaign.

You can't have robots dial cell phones like you can land lines, so all these people in signing up for the text alert about Obama's VP pick are now on a solicitation list and can be direct dialed.

[JerseySean]

The Obama campaign is not banking on the youth vote at all, yet they are taking measures to ensure that they will show up.

What do you think the text message about the VP was about?

Without it, they lose.

[TheMojoPin]

Without it, they lose.

Without what? They're not relying on some kind of surge of youth voters to win. They're clearly expecting the typical largely Democratic turnout of young voters, but they're not hinging their chances on drawing out exceptionally huge numbers of that bloc.

[TheMojoPin]

The Obama campaign is not banking on the youth vote at all, yet they are taking measures to ensure that they will show up.

What do you think the text message about the VP was about?

I didn't say they're not courting the youth vote.

I said there's a difference between that and relying on it for victory.

[epo]

I didn't say they're not courting the youth vote.

I said there's a difference between that and relying on it for victory.

I'm with you. I've seen their operation and can tell you that they aren't banking on shit.

[CousinDave]

Mojo's right about the college kid thing. They did vote in '04.



But it doesn't matter. There's two key pivotal moments (or non-moments) that will decide this campaign:

The first is the final debate. Obama has to dominate McCain on the economy and leave a lasting impression.

He should be able to do this on paper. Obama is way more in-tune. The problem, however, is that having watched a dozen or so previous Obama debates....he's not a great debater.

I don't really remember one standout debate performance for him. I think he routinely got the shit kicked out of him by Hillary, and Edwards, and even Biden in the Democratic Primary debates.

For some reason, he just didn't seem to lend well to the format.



And the second deciding factor is the economic news between now and election day. People do have a breaking point, where if things get bad enough, they'll stop voting guns, and social issues, and wedge issues, and cave to voting their economic interests.

Suprisingly enough, we're not quite there a lot people....we're close...but not quite.


If the Democrats would nominate a good candidate they would have had this election won back in February. Say if they nominated Dick Gephardt (I know he didn't run this time) there would have been token Republican opposition like Mondale was to Regan in '84. But the Democrats decided to go for a novelty candidate and they are going to lose this election, probably by at least 50 electoral votes.

I saw someone on TV say something like this:

The Democrats can't lose, Obama can't win
The Republicans can't win, McCain can't lose

[K.C.]

If the Democrats would nominate a good candidate they would have had this election won back in February. Say if they nominated Dick Gephardt (I know he didn't run this time) there would have been token Republican opposition like Mondale was to Regan in '84. But the Democrats decided to go for a novelty candidate and they are going to lose this election, probably by at least 50 electoral votes.

I saw someone on TV say something like this:

The Democrats can't lose, Obama can't win
The Republicans can't win, McCain can't lose


First off, it is way, way, WAY too premature to say the Democrats are going to lost by at least 50 electoral votes. All of the historical and geographical trends still favor Obama at this point.


Second, guys like Dick Gephardt, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, Evan Bayh, and so forth don't play nationally.

It's sad, but it's true.



There's only two candidates the Democrats could have ran that you could argue would have been a better strategic choice, and that's Al Gore or Hillary Clinton.

I do think Hillary was a better strategic choice, and I said so along. But that's water under the bridge now, and I doubt anyone cares enough about discussing the DLC versus Progressivism, and the Hillary vs. Anti-Clinton factor of the primary.


...but, since you brought up losing, IF he were to lose, the biggest mistake of his campaign would easily have been not picking Hillary Clinton as VP.

[CousinDave]

First off, it is way, way, WAY too premature to say the Democrats are going to lost by at least 50 electoral votes. All of the historical and geographical trends still favor Obama at this point.


Second, guys like Dick Gephardt, Joe Biden, Bill Richardson, Evan Bayh, and so forth don't play nationally.

It's sad, but it's true.



There's only two candidates the Democrats could have ran that you could argue would have been a better strategic choice, and that's Al Gore or Hillary Clinton.

I do think Hillary was a better strategic choice, and I said so along. But that's water under the bridge now, and I doubt anyone cares enough about discussing the DLC versus Progressivism, and the Hillary vs. Anti-Clinton factor of the primary.


...but, since you brought up losing, IF he were to lose, the biggest mistake of his campaign would easily have been not picking Hillary Clinton as VP.


That's why I said 'probably' and up until recently all the speculation by the commentators on TV/radio/newspapers/web has been that Obama was going to win this easily, and I have to say the Democrats should have been able to win this election, but the Democrat primary votes got it wrong again, they are much more interest in celebrity status than anything else.

Obama was never under any circumstance going to pick Hillary as VP and she would never have accepted anyway.

Biden is unelectable nationally, it was stupid of Obama to pick him to try and keep PA blue this cycle, Biden won't be able to deliver PA for Obama.

Richardson was the best candidate the Democrats had running this time, and he didn't even come close, because the Democrat primary voters have a tendency to F up. Al Gore, John Kerry both complete mistakes, I'm surprised they did as well as they did in the general election, Bill Bradley in 2000 would have beaten George W Bush, Dick Gephardt in 2004 would have destroyed George W Bush.

Now I'm not to sure how Richardson would have done in a general election against John McCain, I suspect he'd probably win but by a very slim margin, since he would do very well with Hispanics and NRA members, enough to swing a few votes and a couple of swing states - which is all it takes to win.

But instead we're probably going to see 3-5 blue states turn red this cycle. I wouldn't be shocked to see Oregon go McCain, or for McCain to win 40 states.

[epo]

But instead we're probably going to see 3-5 blue states turn red this cycle. I wouldn't be shocked to see Oregon go McCain, or for McCain to win 40 states.

Any facts to back up this claim? Or just more talk?

[PapaBear]

Any facts to back up this claim? Or just more talk?
Keep in mind, the same guy thinks 2/3's of Virginia voters in the Mark Warner/Jim Gilmore Senate election won't know who they're voting for. He's just tossing out nonsensical bullshit.

[CousinDave]

Keep in mind, the same guy thinks 2/3's of Virginia voters in the Mark Warner/Jim Gilmore Senate election won't know who they're voting for. He's just tossing out nonsensical bullshit.


Yep because a couple of guys ran for office in PA with the name Bob Casey, even though people thought they were voting for a different Bob Casey - it got so bad that the guy named Bob Casey who became governor of PA had to call himself "The Real Bob Casey" It continues to this day because the son of "The Real Bob Casey" is now a US Senator, but a hell of a lot of people think he's the former governor.

And if you can't tell the difference in a joke like 2/3 of the Virgina voters will think they are voting for John Warner when they vote for Mark Warner, then I'd hate to find out what else you'll take seriously. Oh do you think Mark Warner would have been elected governor if there wasn't a long time Senator also named Warner? He may still have been elected but I bet if you ask Michael Barone he'll tell you the name Warner was probably worth an extra 4-6 points.

As for predicting 3-5 blue states will turn red this cycle, well its called a prediction. I'm not basing it on anything other than the fact the Democrats went with a losing candidate again.

Understand something, for the TV networks, radio stations, etc... this time every 4 years is Christmas time with all the ad revenue coming in, not to mention pollsters, ad agencies, political consultants, convention centers, bumper sticker makers, etc... they are out to bleed as much money as they can from the political parties, their candidates, and the "independent interest groups," so they are going to do everything they can to make this campaign last as long as possible - they'll even lie to you.

[CousinDave]

Any facts to back up this claim? Or just more talk?

Okay here is a fact:

Oregon in 2004

Kerry: 943,163
Bush: 866,831

For a difference of: 76,332

Roughly 4% was what separated the two including the minor party candidates.

So of that difference are there enough who won't vote for Obama for whatever reason they choose and are there enough who will vote for McCain for whatever reason they choose.

Now I know its likely the population of OR has increased along with the number of registered voters, I'm just guesstimating the overall percentage is the same.

WI, NH, MI, PA, & MN were even closer than OR in 2004

And lets face it even in 2004 Bush was unpopular. Now its 4 years later and McCain isn't unpopular, occupation of Iraq is going "well" and the economy isn't going "well." McCain will get credit for Iraq and probably won't get blamed for the economy or will get shared blame with Obama for the economy - Obama's party is controlling the Congress - one reason why Senators are rarely elected President, as they'll usually get part of the blame regardless of whether they are responsible or not - this time there are 2 Senators running, so not sure how well that model of blame will play, that's why I suspect blame for the economy will be shared, McCain because of Bush, Obama because Democrats control the Congress.

But anyway, I'd put huge money on McCain winning NH, so that's 1 blue to red. I think PA will go McCain so that's 2, and I really think McCain will win in MI, so there is 3, I wouldn't bet big money on PA and MI, but I'd still bet something on McCain taking those 2. Those other states I think McCain has a very good chance of winning.

The only red sate I think with a chance of turning blue this cycle is Iowa. Obama seems to do well in states that border IL, although I wouldn't bet a lot of money on Obama winning in Iowa, I just think its slightly more likely than not, only because Bush won it in 2004, but Gore won in 2000 and it borders IL - that's also going to help in WI. CO, VA, NM & NV will go McCain, although McCain will have to fight there.

[NewYorkDragons80]

WI, NH, MI, PA, & MN were even closer than OR in 2004

And lets face it even in 2004 Bush was unpopular. Now its 4 years later and McCain isn't unpopular, occupation of Iraq is going "well" and the economy isn't going "well." McCain will get credit for Iraq and probably won't get blamed for the economy or will get shared blame with Obama for the economy - Obama's party is controlling the Congress - one reason why Senators are rarely elected President, as they'll usually get part of the blame regardless of whether they are responsible or not - this time there are 2 Senators running, so not sure how well that model of blame will play, that's why I suspect blame for the economy will be shared, McCain because of Bush, Obama because Democrats control the Congress.
The only reason I think you're wrong about Oregon is because of McCain's role in calling Boeing out for their thievery in the Air Force tanker deal. That made a lot of enemies with the hacks in the machinist union. He wasn't getting their endorsement anyway, but now they're looking to bring him down, and they are heavily influential in the Northwest.

I think you're right on most of the other states, though.

[K.C.]

New Polls: Washington, Minnesota, Iowa, Delaware, Ohio

Update for 9/15: As of right now, here's the most recent poll in each state:

Alabama - McCain 55%, Obama 35% (09/09)
Alaska - McCain 64%, Obama 33% (09/09)
Arizona - McCain 44%, Obama 36% (08/16)
Arkansas - McCain 47%, Obama 37% (07/14)
California - Obama 50%, McCain 38% (08/20)
Colorado - McCain 47.5%, Obama 45.5% (09/12)
Connecticut - Obama 51%, McCain 36% (07/31)
Delaware - Obama 55%, McCain 43% (9/14)
District of Columbia - No Data
Florida - McCain 51.2%, Obama 41.8% (09/12)
Georgia - McCain 52%, Obama 39% (09/11)
Hawaii - Obama 61%, McCain 31% (02/28)
Idaho - McCain 68%, Obama 29% (09/09)
Illinois - Obama 53%, McCain 38% (08/12)
Indiana - McCain 45%, Obama 43% (08/30)
Iowa - Obama 52%, McCain 45% (09/13)
Kansas - McCain 58%, Obama 35% (08/20)
Kentucky - McCain 55%, Obama 37% (08/11)
Louisiana - McCain 55%, Obama 38% (08/17)
Maine - Obama 52%, McCain 38% (09/10)
Maryland - Obama 52%, McCain 38% (09/05)
Massachusetts - Obama 49%, McCain 37% (08/05)
Michigan - Obama 49%, McCain 43.3% (09/12)
Minnesota - Obama 45%, McCain 45% (09/13)
Mississippi - McCain 52%, Obama 39% (09/10)
Missouri - McCain 48.5%, Obama 42.4% (09/12)
Montana - McCain 53%, Obama 42% (09/08)
Nebraska - McCain 50%, Obama 32% (07/28)
Nevada - McCain 50.1%, Obama 42.5% (09/12)
New Hampshire - McCain 49.1%, Obama 42.8% (09/12)
New Jersey - Obama 48%, McCain 45% (09/08)
New Mexico - Obama 45.6%, McCain 44.1% (09/12)
New York - Obama 47%, McCain 39% (08/14)
North Carolina - Obama 48.1%, McCain 46.6% (09/12)
North Dakota - McCain 55%, Obama 41% (09/08)
Ohio - Obama 49, McCain 44 (09/10)
Oklahoma - McCain 65%, Obama 32% (09/07)
Oregon - Obama 48%, McCain 41% (08/07)
Pennsylvania - McCain 49.1%, Obama 44.3% (09/12)
Rhode Island - Obama 51%, McCain 30% (08/20)
South Carolina - McCain 53%, Obama 40% (07/23)
South Dakota - McCain 54%, Obama 37% (09/11)
Tennessee - McCain 56%, Obama 32% (08/20)
Texas - McCain 50%, Obama 41% (08/21)
Utah - McCain 62%, Obama 23% (08/15)
Vermont - Obama 63%, McCain 29% (02/28)
Virginia - McCain 50.3%, Obama 43.8% (09/12)
Washington - Obama 49%, McCain 47% (09/10)
West Virginia - McCain 44%, Obama 39% (09/08)
Wisconsin - Obama 46%, McCain 43% (09/07)
Wyoming - McCain 58%, Obama 39% (09/10)

State Gains for McCain: none
State Gains for Obama: OH
Overall Electoral Shift: Obama +20

If the election were held today, Obama would win 274-264

Analysis: Not much today. Minnesota seems to have tightened up, which is consistent with other polling, although, the Star Tribune poll is the first one I've seen saying it's actually tied.

Quinnepiac had Obama +5 in Ohio, but a Ohio College poll had McCain +4, so it's probably somewhere in between.

It's been interesting to see if there's a shift to Obama this week on the heels of more bad economic news with the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 48 McCain 45 Barr 2 Nader 2

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 44 McCain 43

Gallup
McCain 47 Obama 45

Rasmussen
McCain 49 Obama 47

State Polls

Ohio - Survey USA 9/12-9/14
McCain 49 Obama 45

Ohio - Suffolk 9/10-9/13
McCain 46 Obama 42 Barr 1 McKinney 1 Nader 1

Virginia - Survey USA 9/12-9/14
Obama 50 McCain 46

New York - Siena 9/8-9/10
Obama 46 McCain 41

Iowa - Selzer 9/8-9/10
Obama 52 McCain 40 Barr 2 Nader 1

New Jersey - Bergen Record 9/9-9/11
Obama 50 McCain 41

Delaware - Rasmussen 9/13
Obama 55 McCain 43

Utah - Rasmussen
McCain 64 Obama 32

[HBox]

State Polls

Fox News/Rasmussen All 9/14

Colorado
McCain 48 Obama 46 Nader 3 Barr 1

Ohio
McCain 48 Obama 45 Nader 1

Florida
McCain 49 Obama 44 Barr 2 Nader 2

Pennsylvania
McCain 47 Obama 47 Barr 1 Nader 1

Virginia
McCain 48 Obama 48 Nader 1

[scottinnj]

Aren't you guys glad we didn't scrap the electoral college like a bunch of people wanted to do after Kerry lost?

It's probably the most brilliant part of the Constitution third only to the first and second amendments.

[scottinnj]

New Jersey - Bergen Record 9/9-9/11
Obama 50 McCain 41


That is about right. I wouldn't be surprised with a 10-12 point victory in November. Any talk of McCain tightening up with Obama in Jersey is just nonsense.

[Westley]

can i pick none of the above? lolol

[HBox]

can i pick none of the above? lolol

:clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL

[DiabloSammich]

can i pick none of the above? lolol



Goddamn, Westley, you are ON tonight!

[AKA]

Virginia - Survey USA 9/12-9/14
Obama 50 McCain 46

I would love to see Virginia be the one to put it over the top for the Democrats this year - I am convinced that it was Obama's big win here in the primaries that really was the most damaging nail in Hillary's coffin.

Not only is Northern Virginia a substantial blue region, but in mid-Virginia, down below Richmond, there is a pretty big rural African American populace - they tend to run on the conservative side socially, but they also vote Democrat.

http://www.dailyyonder.com/files/u2/virginina-primary-map486_copy.jpg

[NewYorkDragons80]

:clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL :clap: LOL

Wait, so I gotta choose between THESE TWO? No thank you

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 48 McCain 44

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 46 McCain 42

Gallup
McCain 47 Obama 46

Rasmussen
McCain 48 Obama 47

National Polls

George Washington University 9/7-9/11
McCain 48 Obama 44

ARG 9/13-9/15
McCain 48 Obama 45

Economist/Quinnipiac 9/10-9/14
Obama 41 McCain 40

State Polls

New Jersey - Quinnipiac 9/10-9/14
Obama 48 McCain 45

New Jersey - Monmouth University 9/11-9/14
Obama 49 McCain 41

Ohio - Public Policy Polling 9/13-9/14
McCain 48 Obama 44

New York - Rasmussen 9/15
Obama 55 McCain 42

Generic Congressional Polls

Rasmussen 9/14
Democrats 44 Republicans 38

George Washington University 9/7-9/11
Democrats 48 Republicans 40

[K.C.]

New Polls: Every state except Arkansas, Connecticut, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, Marlyand, Massachusettes, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Washington (combining new polls from CNN, Rasmussen and filling in gaps with the American Research Group's recent every state polling)

Update for 9/17: As of right now, here's the most recent poll in each state:

Alabama - McCain 58%, Obama 36% (09/16)
Alaska - McCain 55%, Obama 39% (09/11)
Arizona - McCain 56%, Obama 39% (09/14)
Arkansas - McCain 47%, Obama 37% (07/14)
California - Obama 52%, McCain 36% (09/14)
Colorado - McCain 48%, Obama 46% (09/14)
Connecticut - Obama 51%, McCain 36% (07/31)
Delaware - Obama 51%, McCain 40% (9/15)
District of Columbia - Obama 82%, McCain 13% (09/13)
Florida - McCain 48%, Obama 48% (09/16)
Georgia - McCain 52%, Obama 39% (09/11)
Hawaii - Obama 63%, McCain 32% (09/12)
Idaho - McCain 68%, Obama 25% (09/10)
Illinois - Obama 51%, McCain 45% (09/16)
Indiana - McCain 51%, Obama 45% (09/14)
Iowa - Obama 52%, McCain 45% (09/13)
Kansas - McCain 63%, Obama 31% (09/10)
Kentucky - McCain 57%, Obama 37% (09/12)
Louisiana - McCain 50%, Obama 43% (09/12)
Maine - Obama 51%, McCain 41% (09/10)
Maryland - Obama 52%, McCain 38% (09/05)
Massachusetts - Obama 49%, McCain 37% (08/05)
Michigan - Obama 49%, McCain 43.3% (09/12)
Minnesota - Obama 45%, McCain 45% (09/13)
Mississippi - McCain 55%, Obama 39% (09/16)
Missouri - McCain 50%, Obama 45% (09/15)
Montana - McCain 49%, Obama 47% (09/09)
Nebraska - McCain 50%, Obama 32% (07/28)
Nevada - McCain 49%, Obama 46% (09/14)
New Hampshire - McCain 49.1%, Obama 42.8% (09/12)
New Jersey - Obama 49%, McCain 41% (09/12)
New Mexico - Obama 51%, McCain 44% (09/16)
New York - Obama 55%, McCain 42% (09/15)
North Carolina - McCain 48%, Obama 47% (09/14)
North Dakota - McCain 55%, Obama 41% (09/08)
Ohio - Obama 49, McCain 47 (09/15)
Oklahoma - McCain 65%, Obama 32% (09/07)
Oregon - Obama 51%, McCain 47% (09/15)
Pennsylvania - McCain 47%, Obama 47% (09/14)
Rhode Island - Obama 58%, McCain 39% (09/17)
South Carolina - McCain 53%, Obama 40% (07/23)
South Dakota - McCain 54%, Obama 37% (09/11)
Tennessee - McCain 56%, Obama 32% (08/20)
Texas - McCain 57%, Obama 36% (09/16)
Utah - McCain 65%, Obama 29% (09/13)
Vermont - Obama 55%, McCain 36% (09/14)
Virginia - Obama 48%, McCain 46% (09/12)
Washington - Obama 49%, McCain 47% (09/10)
West Virginia - McCain 49%, Obama 45% (09/16)
Wisconsin - Obama 48%, McCain 46% (09/15)
Wyoming - McCain 66%, Obama 28% (09/11)

State Gains for McCain: NC
State Gains for Obama: VA
Overall Electoral Shift: McCain +2

If the election were held today, Obama would win 272-267

Analysis: Well, McCain picks back up North Carolina, but interestingly enough, it's only by 1%, so Zogby's number is being corroborated by the CNN poll.

That's a bad sign for McCain if he now has to spend time defending North Carolina.

McCain is still clinging to Colorado for now, but appears to be in a dogfight again in Florida.

On the flip side, several polls have shown Pennsylvania being close or tied, so McCain is slipping in Florida, and Obama in Pennsylvania.

Both need to firm up those states.

McCain seems to have solidified Indiana a little, although his lead in Louisiana is creeping closer to being in play.

Once again, Obama is creeping up in Montana, suggesting that earlier polling suggesting this could be a competitive state this year could be correct.

As noted, Obama is losing some ground in Pennsylvania right now. The only other place he's taken a hit seems to be Oregon.

Otherwise, he's made solid gains elsewhere.

But with Pennsylvania, Florida, and Minnesota all tied, this is indeed a toss-up election.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 48 McCain 44

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 45 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 47 McCain 45

Rasmussen
McCain 48 Obama 47

National Polls

CBS/New York Times 9/12-9/16
Obama 49 McCain 44

Ipsos/McClatchey 9/11-9/15
Obama 45 McCain 45 Nader 2 Barr 1

Zogby (NON INTERACTIVE) 9/11-9/13
Obama 47 McCain 45

State Polls

Virginia - Public Policy Polling 9/13-9/14
Obama 48 McCain 46

California - Field Poll 9/5-9/14
Obama 52 McCain 36

Wisconsin - CNN/Time 9/14-9/16
Obama 49 McCain 45 Nader 3 Barr 1
Obama 50 McCain 47

Ohio - CNN/Time 9/14-9/16
Obama 46 McCain 44 Nader 4 Barr 2
Obama 49 McCain 47

North Carolina - CNN/Time 9/14-9/16
McCain 46 Obama 45 Nader 2 Barr 2 McKinney 1
McCain 48 Obama 47

Indiana - CNN/Time 9/14-9/16
McCain 48 Obama 43 Nader 4 Barr 3 McKinney 1
McCain 51 Obama 45

Florida - CNN/Time 9/14-9/16
Obama 48 McCain 44 Nader 4(You bastards will never learn will you) Barr 1 McKinney 1
McCain 48 Obama 48

Virginia - Christopher Newport University 9/10-9/14
McCain 48 Obama 39

Oregon - Rasmussen 9/15
Obama 51 McCain 47

Wisconsin - Rasmussen 9/15
Obama 48 McCain 46

Rhode Island - Rasmussen 9/15
Obama 58 McCain 39

And here is 25 polls from ARG. I'm certainly not typing out all of it. (http://americanresearchgroup.com/)

[CousinDave]

Look for a big Obama bounce early next week in national polls of registered voters, and a slight bounce for Obama from likely voters.

A week after the first debate will be the most important polls so far this cycle.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 49 McCain 43

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 46 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 48 McCain 44

Rasmussen
Obama 48 McCain 48

National Polls

Quinnipiac 9/11-9/16
Obama 49 McCain 45

Economist 9/15-9/16
McCain 45 Obama 43

Pew 9/9-9/14
Obama 46 McCain 46

State Polls

Indiana - Selzer 9/14-9/16
Obama 47 McCain 44

Indiana - Big Ten 9/14-9/17
McCain 47 Obama 43

New Mexico - Survey USA 9/14-9/16
Obama 52 McCain 44

New Mexico - National Journal 9/11-9/15
Obama 49 McCain 42

Georgia - Survey USA 9/14-9/16
McCain 57 Obama 41

Georgia - Rasmussen 9/16
McCain 54 Obama 43

Georgia - Public Opinion Strategies 9/8-9/11
McCain 56 Obama 35

Georgia - Insider Advantage 9/17
McCain 51 Obama 43

Florida - ARG 9/13-9/15
McCain 46 Obama 46

Florida - National Journal 9/11-9/15
McCain 44 Obama 44

Florida - Survey USA 9/16-9/17
McCain 51 Obama 45

New Hampshire - ARG 9/13-9/15
McCain 48 Obama 45

South Carolina - ARG 9/13-9/15
McCain 59 Obama 37

Nebraska - ARG 9/13-9/15
McCain 60 Obama 34

Vermont - Rasmussen 9/13
Obama 60 McCain 36

Colorado - National Journal 9/11-9/15
Obama 45 McCain 44

Colorado - Insider Advantage 9/17
Obama 51 McCain 41

Ohio - National Journal 9/11-9/15
McCain 42 Obama 41

Ohio - Big Ten 9/14-9/17
Obama 46 McCain 45

Virginia - National Journal 9/11-9/15
McCain 48 Obama 41

Virginia - Insider Advantage 9/17
McCain 48 Obama 46

Illinois - Big Ten 9/14-9/17
Obama 53 McCain 37

Iowa - Big Ten 9/14-9/17
McCain 45 Obama 45

Michigan - Big Ten 9/14-9/17
Obama 48 McCain 44

Minnesota - Big Ten 9/14-9/17
Obama 47 McCain 45

Pennsylvania - Big Ten 9/14-9/17
Obama 45 McCain 45

Wisconsin - Big Ten 9/14-9/17
Obama 45 McCain 44

Oregon - Portland Tribune 9/11-9/14
Obama 50 McCain 40

Connecticut - Rasmussen 9/16
Obama 53 McCain 41

New Jersey - Rasmussen 9/16
Obama 55 McCain 42

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 49 McCain 42

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 45 McCain 44

Gallup
Obama 49 McCain 44

Rasmussen
Obama 48 McCain 48

State Polls

Alaska - Daily Kos/Research 2000 9/15-9/17
McCain 55 Obama 38

Alabama - SurveyUSA 9/16-9/17
McCain 64 Obama 34

New Jersey - Strategic Vision 9/14-9/16
Obama 47 McCain 43

Washington - Strategic Vision 9/14-9/16
Obama 47 McCain 42

Washington - ARG 9/15-9/18
Obama 50 McCain 44

Indiana - ARG 9/15-9/18
McCain 47 Obama 44

Indiana - Rasmussen 9/17-9/18
McCain 49 Obama 47

North Dakota - ARG 9/15-9/18
McCain 52 Obama 43[/b]

Oklahoma - ARG 9/15-9/18
McCain 61 Obama 34

Michigan - Marist 9/11-9/15
Obama 52 McCain 43

Ohio - Marist 9/11-9/15
Obama 47 McCain 45

Pennsylvania - Marist 9/11-9/15
Obama 49 McCain 44

Kentucky - Daily Kos/Research 2000 9/15-9/17
McCain 55 Obama 37

Iowa - SurveyUSA 9/17-9/18
Obama 54 McCain 43

North Carolina - Elon University 9/15-9/16
McCain 41 Obama 35

Maine - Rasmussen 9/17
Obama 50 McCain 46

[scottinnj]

Any polls on how the electoral college is shaping up?

[GreatAmericanZero]

Any polls on how the electoral college is shaping up?

yeah, Bush is going to graduate with a 2.0

[HBox]

Any polls on how the electoral college is shaping up?

There's 3 sources you can go to for that. The least reliable one is electoral vote.com.

Link here. (http://www.electoral-vote.com/)

They just assign a state according to the latest poll. It can easily be screwed up by a couple of outlier polls.

Then there's pollster.com

Link here. (http://www.pollster.com/)

They have an electoral map on their front page. They place a state into one camp or the other by averaging out polls. Much more reliable. You can click on any state to get a list of all polls taken and a trendline.

And then there's FiveThirtyEight.

Link here. (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

This is much more in depth. The guy running this is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. He's using the types of statistical models he used for baseball stats and using them to predict the election. He was incredibly accurate in the primaries.

[scottinnj]

Thanks, I'm gonna bookmark the FiveThirtyEIght.com site.

[celery]

And then there's FiveThirtyEight.[/color][/size]

Link here. (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/)

This is much more in depth. The guy running this is a writer for Baseball Prospectus. He's using the types of statistical models he used for baseball stats and using them to predict the election. He was incredibly accurate in the primaries.

Holy crap, that is insanely detailed. Thanks for sharing...

[scottinnj]

Holy crap, that is insanely detailed. Thanks for sharing...

Yeah, the details, the charts, the colors!

It took 5 minutes just to focus.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 50 McCain 42

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 45 McCain 44

Gallup
Obama 50 McCain 44

Rasmussen
Obama 48 McCain 47

State Polls

Michigan - EPIC/MRA 9/14-9/17
Obama 43 McCain 42

Michigan - ARG 9/16-9/19
Obama 48 McCain 46

Connecticut - ARG 9/16-9/19
Obama 54 McCain 39

Maryland - ARG 9/16-9/19
Obama 54 McCain 39

Tennessee - ARG 9/16-9/19
McCain 59 Obama 39

Illinois - Rasmussen 9/17-9/18
Obama 56 McCain 40

South Carolina - Rasmussen 9/17-9/18
McCain 51 Obama 45

Missouri - Research 2000 9/15-9/18
McCain 49 Obama 45

Illinois - Research 2000 9/15-9/18
Obama 56 McCain 36

North Carolina - Public Policy Polling 9/17-9/19
Obama 46 McCain 46 Barr 5

Ohio - University of Cincinnati 9/12-9/16
McCain 48 Obama 42

[AKA]

Politico.com's Electoral/Swing State Map Is My Go-To (http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html)

[NewYorkDragons80]

Politico.com's Electoral/Swing State Map Is My Go-To (http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html)

I'm an RCP Avg kinda guy. Obama's up by 2.2

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 49 McCain 43

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 48 McCain 44

George Washington University
McCain 48 Obama 47

Rasmussen
Obama 48 McCain 47

National Polls

CNN 9/19-9/21
Obama 51 McCain 47
Obama 48 McCain 45 Nader 4 Barr 1 McKinney 1

State Polls

North Carolina - Rasmussen 9/18
McCain 50 Obama 47

Minnesota - Rasmussen 9/18
Obama 52 McCain 44

Georgia - ARG 9/18-9/20
McCain 57 Obama 39

New Jersey - ARG 9/18-9/20
Obama 51 McCain 42

South Dakota - ARG 9/18-9/20
McCain 55 Obama 39

Wisconsin - ARG 9/18-9/20
Obama 50 McCain 45

Virginia - SurveyUSA 9/19-9/21
Obama 51 McCain 45

Virginia - ABC News/Washington Post 9/18-9/21
Obama 49 McCain 46

Virginia - Rasmussen 9/21
McCain 50 Obama 48

Pennsylvania - NBC 9/16-9/18
Obama 46 McCain 44

New Mexico - Public Policy Polling 9/17-9/19
Obama 53 McCain 42

Nevada - Suffolk 9/17-9/21
McCain 46 Obama 45

Florida - Rasmussen 9/21
McCain 51 Obama 46

Michigan - Rasmussen 9/21
Obama 51 McCain 44

Ohio - Rasmussen 9/21
McCain 50 Obama 46

Pennsylvania - Rasmussen 9/21
Obama 48 McCain 45

New Hampshire - University of New Hampshire 9/14-9/21
McCain 47 Obama 45

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 49 McCain 43

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 43

Gallup
Obama 47 McCain 44

George Washington University
McCain 48 Obama 46

Rasmussen
Obama 48 McCain 48

National Polls

ARG 9/20-9/22
Obama 48 McCain 46

State Polls

Colorado - Quinnipiac 9/14-9/21
Obama 49 McCain 45

Colorado - Public Policy Polling 9/20-9/21
Obama 51 McCain 44

Michigan - Quinnipiac 9/14-9/21
Obama 48 McCain 44

Minnesota - Quinnipiac 9/14-9/21
Obama 47 McCain 45

Wisconsin - Quinnipiac 9/14-9/21
Obama 49 McCain 42

North Carolina - Civitas 9/17-9/20
McCain 45 Obama 45 Barr 1

Florida - NBC 9/16-9/18
Obama 47 McCain 45

Iowa - Research 2000 9/15-9/17
Obama 53 McCain 39

Arkansas - ARG 9/18-9/22
McCain 53 Obama 41

Massachusetts - ARG 9/18-9/22
Obama 55 McCain 39

Oregon - ARG 9/18-9/22
Obama 52 McCain 41

Pennsylvania - ARG 9/18-9/22
Obama 50 McCain 46

Vermont - ARG 9/18-9/22
Obama 56 McCain 38

Kentucky - Survery USA 9/21-9/22
McCain 57 Obama 38

Ohio - Insider Advantage 9/22
McCain 46 Obama 46

California - Rasmussen 9/18-9/22
Obama 56 McCain 39

Kansas - Rasmussen 9/18-9/22
McCain 58 Obama 38

Kansas - Survey USA 9/21-9/22
McCain 53 Obama 41

[celery]

Things can sure change in few weeks:

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/24/fox-news-poll-obama-reclaims-lead-over-mccain-45-to-39/

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 48 McCain 44

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 48 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 47 McCain 44

George Washington University
McCain 48 Obama 46

Rasmussen
Obama 49 McCain 47

National Polls

ABC/Washington Post
Obama 52 McCain 43

Fox News
Obama 45 McCain 39

NBC/WSJ
Obama 48 McCain 46

State Polls

Kansas - SurveyUSA 9/21-9/22
McCain 53 Obama 41

South Carolina - SurveyUSA 9/21-9/22
McCain 58 Obama 39

Washington - SurveyUSA 9/21-9/22
Obama 54 McCain 43

Michigan - MRG 9/15-9/20
McCain 46 Obama 43

Michigan - CNN\Time 9/21-9/23
Obama 51 McCain 46
Obama 49 McCain 43 Nader 3 Barr 2 McKinney 1

Iowa - Marist 9/17-9/21
Obama 51 McCain 41

New Hampshire 9/17-9/21
Obama 51 McCain 45

New Hampshire - Rasmussen 9/23
McCain 49 Obama 47

Alabama - Rasmussen 9/23
McCain 60 Obama 39

Colorado - Rasmussen 9/23
Obama 50 McCain 47

Colorado - Insider Advantage 9/23
Obama 50 McCain 41

Colorado - CNN/Time 9/21-9/23
Obama 51 McCain 47
Obama 49 McCain 45 Nader 3 Barr 1

Hawaii - Rasmussen 9/23
Obama 68 McCain 27

Maryland - Rasmussen 9/23
Obama 60 McCain 37

Nevada - Project New West 9/14-9/19
Obama 47 McCain 45

Pennsylvania - CNN\Time 9/21-9/23
Obama 53 McCain 44
OBama 51 McCain 43 Nader 3 Barr 1

Pennsylvania - Strategic Vision 9/21-9/23
Obama 47 McCain 46

West Virginia - CNN\Time 9/21-9/23
McCain 50 Obama 46
McCain 49 Obama 44 Nader 5 McKinney 1

Montana - CNN\Time 9/21-9/23
McCain 54 Obama 43
McCain 49 Obama 40 Nader 1 Barr 1

Florida - Strategic Vision 9/21-9/23
McCain 48 Obama 45

SurveyUSA snap poll on McCain's stupid nonsense today
1. Should debate be held?
Held as scheduled - 50
Held with focus on economy - 36
Postponed - 10

2. Should campaign's be suspended?
Suspend campaigns - 14
Continue campaign - 38
Re-focus campaign on economy - 48

3. If debate is not held, good or bad for America?
Good - 14
Bad - 46
No difference - 35

4. If debate is not held, good or bad for McCain?
Good - 21
Bad - 21
No difference - 52

5. If debate is not held, good or bad for Obama?
Good - 16
Bad - 26
No difference - 52

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 49 McCain 43

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 43

Gallup
Obama 47 McCain 47

George Washington University
Can't find today's if they released it

Rasmussen
Obama 49 McCain 46

National Polls

Marist 9/22-9/23
Obama 49 McCain 44

Democracy Corps
Obama 47 McCain 44

State Polls

Maine - SurveyUSA 9/22-9/23
Obama 49 McCain 44

Oregon - SurveyUSA 9/22-9/23
Obama 52 McCain 41

Massachusetts - SurveyUSA 9/22-9/23
Obama 55 McCain 39

Delaware - SurveyUSA 9/22-9/23
Obama 57 McCain 37

New York - SurveyUSA 9/23-9/24
Obama 57 McCain 38

Pennsylvania - SurveyUSA 9/23-9/24
Obama 50 McCain 44

Michigan - National Journal 9/18-9/22
Obama 47 McCain 39

Michigan - Strategic Vision 9/22-9/24
Obama 48 McCain 45

Michigan - EPIC/MRA 9/20-9/22
Obama 48 McCain 38

New Hampshire - National Journal 9/18-9/22
Obama 44 McCain 43

New Hampshire - Strategic Vision 9/22-9/24
Obama 46 McCain 45

Pennsylvania - National Journal 9/18-9/22
Obama 43 McCain 41

Pennsylvania - Rasmussen 9/23
Obama 49 McCain 45

North Carolina - Rasmussen 9/23
Obama 49 McCain 47

Arkansas - Rasmussen 9/23
McCain 51 Obama 42

Ohio - Rasmussen 9/23
McCain 47 Obama 46

West Virginia - Rasmussen 9/23
McCain 50 Obama 42

[thejives]

The battleground swing is pretty impressive.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 48 McCain 43

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 49 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 48 McCain 45

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 45

State Polls

Missouri - Research 2000 9/22-9/24
McCain 47 Obama 46

Missouri - SurveyUSA 9/23-9/24
McCain 48 Obama 46

Virginia - Rasmussen 9/25
Obama 50 McCain 45

Florida - Rasmussen 9/24
McCain 48 Obama 47

Florida - ARG 9/23-9/25
Obama 47 McCain 46

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg College 9/22-9/24
Obama 47 McCain 43

Montana - Research 2000 9/22-9/42
McCain 52 Obama 39

Colorado - ARG 9/23-9/25
McCain 48 Obama 45

South Carolina - Research 2000 9/22-9/24
McCain 54 Obama 39

Wyoming - Research 2000 9/22-9/24
McCain 57 Obama 36

[JerseySean]

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
OREGON (Research 2000): House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) - 45%, US Senator Gordon Smith (R) - 40%.
VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): Former Governor Mark Warner (D) - 60%, former Governor Jim Gilmore (R) - 34%.
WEST VIRGINIA (Rasmussen): US Senator Jay Rockefeller (D) - 61%, former State Senator Jay Wolfe (R) - 33%.
US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
DELAWARE (SurveyUSA): US Senator Joe Biden (D) - 64%, political consultant Christine O'Donnell (R) - 32%.
MAINE (SurveyUSA): US Senator Susan Collins (R) - 55%, Congressman Tom Allen (D) - 39%.
MASSACHUSETTS (Rasmussen): US Senator John Kerry (D) - 65%, businessman Jeff Beatty (R) - 30%.
NORTH CAROLINA (Rasmussen): State Senator Kay Hagan (D) - 48%, US Senator Elizabeth Dole (R) - 45%.
OERGON (SurveyUSA): House Speaker Jeff Merkley (D) - 44%, US Senator Gordon Smith (R) - 42%.

Prez:

P2008 - DAILY POLLING UPDATE. Here is our daily update of the latest independent state polls on the Presidential race:
CALIFORNIA (Rasmussen): Obama - 56%, McCain - 39%.
COLORADO (Quinnipiac Univ/Wall Street Journal): Obama - 49%, McCain - 45%, Others - 1%.
COLORADO (PPP-D): Obama - 51%, McCain - 44%.
FLORIDA (NBC News/Mason-Dixon): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%.
KANSAS (Rasmussen): McCain - 58%, Obama - 38%.
KENTUCKY (SurveyUSA): McCain - 57%, Obama - 38%.
MICHIGAN (Quinnipiac Univ/Wall Street Journal): Obama - 48%, McCain - 44%, Others - 1%.
MICHIGAN (Inside Michigan Politics/MRG): McCain - 46%, Obama - 43%, Others - 5%.
MINNESOTA CHIGAN (Quinnipiac Univ/Wall Street Journal): Obama - 47%, McCain - 45%, Others - 2%.
OHIO (Insider Advantage): Obama - 46%, McCain - 46%.
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Obama - 54%, McCain - 43%, Others - 2%.
WISCONSIN (Quinnipiac Univ/Wall Street Journal): Obama - 49%, McCain - 42%, Others - 1%.

US SENATE. The latest independent polls for the US Senate match-ups:
COLORADO (Quinnipiac Univ/Wall Street Journal): Congressman Mark Udall (D) - 48%, former Congressman Bob Schaffer (R) - 40%, Other - 1%.
KANSAS (Rasmussen): US Senator Pat Roberts (R) - 58%, former Congressman Jim Slattery (D) - 38%.
KENTUCKY (Research 2000): US Senator Mitch McConnell (R) - 49%, businessman Bruce Lunsford (D) - 46%.
MINNESOTA (Quinnipiac Univ/Wall Street Journal): US Senator Norm Coleman (R) - 49%, humorist Al Franken (D) - 42%, Other - 3%.

SEND A PIN = GET A FREE PLUG HERE. Here's my open offer for every campaign (and campaign supporter): send me a button or pin from the Governor, US Senate, Congressional, Statewide Office campaign you are involved in -- feel free to add a sticker and brochure -- and I'll place a link to official campaign site here on our home page blog in a daily "thank you" note. (FYI: Presidential coattails items always appreciated -- like this LBJ-Claude Pepper pin from 1964). My address: Ron Gunzburger, 409 NE 17 Avenue, Fort Lauderdale, Florida 33301.

GOVERNOR. The new independent polls for the gubernatorial contests:
WASHINGTON (SurveyUSA): Governor Christine Gregoire (D) - 50%, former State Senator Dino Rossi (R) - 48%.

CONGRESS. Here are the latest independent polls for US House races.
OHIO CD-1 (SurveyUSA): Congressman Steve Chabot (R) - 46%, State House Minority Whip Steve Dreihaus (D) - 44%, Others - 6%.
OHIO CD-2 (SurveyUSA): Congresswoman Jean Schmidt (R) - 48%, physician Victoria Wulsin (D) - 40%, Others - 10%.
OHIO CD-15 (SurveyUSA): Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy (D) - 47%, State Senator Steve Stivers - 42%, pro-life activist Don Eckhart (I) - 5%, software engineer Mark Noble (Libt) - 3%.
OHIO CD-16 (SurveyUSA): State Senator John Boccieri (D) - 49%, State Senator Kirk Schuring (R) - 41%.

[K.C.]

Crunching a few electoral numbers today:

1) Obama currently has 252 Electoral Votes solidly in his camp (meaning multiple polls showing a lead of 5% or more in a state)

2) McCain currently has 165 Electoral Votes solidly in his camp


That leaves 121 Electoral Votes within under 5% that would be considered 'in-play' at the moment.

Of those, Obama is currently leading in Minnesota (10), Colorado (9), New Hampshire (4), and Virginia (13)

McCain is leading in Nevada (5), Missouri (11), Indiana (11), Ohio (20), North Carolina (15), and Florida (27)

Currently with all factored in, Obama would win 286-252



But here's the bottom line.

Obama will win with a combination of any of the three of the four toss-up states he's CURRENTLY leading in. He only has to defend three.

McCain has to defend all six of his current toss-up states, AND pick off at least two of Obama's.

If Obama were to pickoff any of McCain's toss-ups, that would be pretty close to assuring Obama a victory.


McCain has an almost impossible task strategically.

Barring a major Obama gaffe between now and election day, McCain is going to have to play an almost perfect game to win.

Electoral history doesn't favor too kindly, candidates that have to defend as much 'in-play' territory as McCain.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 49 McCain 43

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 48 McCain 43

Gallup
Obama 49 McCain 44

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 44

State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Morning Call
Obama 47 McCain 43

State Polls

Iowa - Rasmussen 9/25
Obama 51 McCain 43

Louisiana - Rasmussen 9/25
McCain 55 Obama 40

California - SurveyUSA 9/24
Obama 53 McCain 43

New York - SurveyUSA 9/24
Obama 57 McCain 38

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls - The first polls to include debate reaction, accounting for one-third of these polls.

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 50 McCain 43

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 50 McCain 42

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 44

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 42

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 50 McCain 42

GWU
McCain 48 Obama 46

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 45

State Polls

Florida - SurveyUSA 9/27-9/28
McCain 48 Obama 47

North Carolina - Public Policy Polling
Obama 47 McCain 45 Barr 3

Tennessee - MTSU 9/15-9/27
McCain 48 Obama 36

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg
Obama 49 McCain 42

[HBox]

State Polls

Pennsylvania - Rasmussen 9/28
Obama 50 McCain 42

Ohio - Rasmussen 9/28
McCain 48 Obama 47

Virginia - Rasmussen 9/28
Obama 50 McCain 47

Florida - Rasmussen 9/28
McCain 48 Obama 47

Colorado - Rasmussen 9/28
Obama 49 McCain 48

New Jersey - SurveyUSA 9/27-9/28
Obama 52 McCain 42

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 41

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 41

Gallup
Obama 49 McCain 43

GWU
Obama 48 McCain 46

Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 45


National Polls

ARG 9/27-9/29
Obama 49 McCain 45


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 49 McCain 41


State Polls

Ohio - SurveyUSA 9/28-9/29
McCain 49 Obama 48

Georgia - SurveyUSA 9/28-9/29
McCain 52 Obama 44

Virginia - ARG 9/27-9/29
McCain 49 Obama 46

North Carolina - ARG 9/27-9/29
McCain 49 Obama 46

Nevada - ARG 9/27-9/29
McCain 49 Obama 47

Florida - Public Policy Polling 9/27-9/28
Obama 49 McCain 46

Indiana - SurveyUSA 9/28-9/29
McCain 48 Obama 45

Arizona - Rasmussen 9/29
McCain 58 Obama 39

[HBox]

National Poll

ABC News/Washington Post 9/27-9/29
Obama 50 McCain 46

[SP1!]

Didnt most of the polls show kerry winning handily as well? The only poll that matters is the poll released on November 5th.

I don't see Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, or even Colorado going into obamas camp, and Florida is going to be way into McCains camp.

I don't think it matters, either way they are both duds.

[epo]

Didnt most of the polls show kerry winning handily as well? The only poll that matters is the poll released on November 5th.

I don't see Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, or even Colorado going into obamas camp, and Florida is going to be way into McCains camp.

I don't think it matters, either way they are both duds.

Kerry was never winning this heavily nationally, and especially not in the state-by-state breakdown.

[K.C.]

Didnt most of the polls show kerry winning handily as well? The only poll that matters is the poll released on November 5th.

I don't see Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, or even Colorado going into obamas camp, and Florida is going to be way into McCains camp.

I don't think it matters, either way they are both duds.

Based on what?

Obama's been leading in Iowa by double digits most of the way. Minnesota is about as solid a blue state as it gets. Even Mondale won it. The Democrats haven't lost it since 1972.

The other states are all toss-ups at this point.

[HBox]

State Polls

Ohio - Insider Advantage 9/29
Obama 47 McCain 45

Virginia - Insider Advantage 9/29
Obama 51 McCain 45

[hammersavage]

If these Virginia #'s turn out to be accurate, we might just have something here folks...

[PapaBear]

If these Virginia #'s turn out to be accurate, we might just have something here folks...
I'm sure things are very different in SW VA, but I'm seeing a HUGE difference this election where I live. Obama support is very very strong here. Also, Warner is walking away with the Senate election.

In a Washington Post/ABC News Poll dated Wednesday, September 24, Warner was up 30 points over Gilmore.

[K.C.]

I'm sure things are very different in SW VA, but I'm seeing a HUGE difference this election where I live. Obama support is very very strong here. Also, Warner is walking away with the Senate election.

I think the DNC targeted Colorado and Virginia (although Obama specifically has pushed Virginia even harder) this time around.

Kaine has to help him there a lot, too.

He's still probably going to have to get an enormous turnout to flip the state, but it's definitely there for the taking.

I kind of see Virginia as a narrow miss for him in the end. Maybe a 51-49 loss that they can work on over the next four years and finally flip in the midterms in '10 and the next election in '12.

[PapaBear]

It can't hurt that Warner and Kaine have restored the voting rights to nearly 6000 non violent felons in the last six years (http://www.inrich.com/cva/ric/news.apx.-content-articles-RTD-2008-09-29-0209.html) (myself included).

[AKA]

I think the DNC targeted Colorado and Virginia (although Obama specifically has pushed Virginia even harder) this time around.

Kaine has to help him there a lot, too.

He's still probably going to have to get an enormous turnout to flip the state, but it's definitely there for the taking.

I kind of see Virginia as a narrow miss for him in the end. Maybe a 51-49 loss that they can work on over the next four years and finally flip in the midterms in '10 and the next election in '12.

The states that Obama surprised Clinton in were the ones like Virginia where he has such a strong, well organized group in place. It's only gotten stronger, in states like VA, NC, Colorado and Indiana. I really think this has been a chess game, and the Obama campaign knows they have already won, but there are still several more moves that need to happen before everyone else realizes it - maybe it's arrogant, but they were so well organized during the primaries, and even predicted how they would do in state by state months before it happened - I have that feeling.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 41

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 48 McCain 44

GWU/Battleground
Obama 48 McCain 46

Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 45


National Polls

Pew 9/27-9/29
Obama 49 McCain 43

Economist 9/22-9/24
Obama 46 McCain 43

Democracy Crops 9/28-9/30
Obama 49 McCain 45

Time 9/26-9/29
Obama 50 McCain 43

AP 9/27-9/30
Obama 48 McCain 41

State Polls

Florida - Quinnipiac 9/27-9/29
Post Debate: Obama 51 McCain 43
Pre Debate: Obama 49 McCain 43

Florida - CNN/Time 9/28-9/30
Obama 51 McCain 47
Obama 51 McCain 43 Nader 3 Barr 1 McKinney 1

Florida - Suffolk 9/27-9/30
Obama 46 McCain 42

Ohio - Quinnipiac 9/27-9/29
Post Debate: Obama 50 McCain 42
Pre Debate: Obama 49 McCain 42

Pennsylvania - Quinnipiac 9/27-9/29
Post Debate: Obama 54 McCain 39
Pre Debate: Obama 49 McCain 43

Pennsylvania - Franklin and Marshall 9/23-9/28
Obama 48 McCain 43

Oklahoma - SurveyUSA 9/28-9/29
McCain 64 Obama 34

Minnesota - CNN/Time 9/28-9/30
Obama 54 McCain 43
Obama 53 McCain 41 Nader 2 Barr 1

Missouri - CNN/Time 9/28-9/30
Obama 49 McCain 48
Obama 47 McCain 46 Nader 2 Barr 2

Nevada - CNN/Time 9/28-9/30
Obama 51 McCain 47
Obama 49 McCain 44 Nader 4 Barr 1

Virginia - CNN/Time 9/28-9/30
Obama 53 McCain 44
Obama 52 McCain 42 Nader 2 Barr 2

Mississippi - Rasmussen 9/30
McCain 52 Obama 44

Tennessee - Rasmussen 9/30
McCain 58 Obama 39

Texas - Rasmussen 9/30
McCain 52 Obama 43

Arizona - ASU 9/25-9/28
McCain 45 Obama 38

[HBox]

State Tracking Poll

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 48 McCain 41


State Polls

Iowa - Research 2000 9/29-9/30
Obama 55 McCain 39

Indiana - Research 2000 9/29-9/30
McCain 46 Obama 45

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 40

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 48 McCain 43

GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 44

Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 44


National Polls

CBS News 9/27-9/30
Obama 50 McCain 41

Marist 9/28-9/30
Obama 49 McCain 44

Economist 9/27-9/29
Obama 47 McCain 42


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 50 McCain 41


State Polls

Florida - Insider Advantage 9/30
Obama 49 McCain 46

Georgia - Insider Advantage 9/30
McCain 50 Obama 44

Nevada - Insider Advantage 9/30
Obama 48 McCain 47

Wisconsin - Strategic Vision 9/26-9/28
Obama 49 McCain 40

New Mexico - SurveyUSA 9/29-9/30
Obama 52 McCain 44

New Mexico - Rasmussen 10/1
Obama 49 McCain 44

Ohio - Democracy Corps 9/29-10/1
Obama 49 McCain 43

Michigan - Public Policy Polling 9/29-10/1
Obama 51 McCain 41

Virginia - Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1
McCain 48 Obama 45

Colorado - Ciruli 9/19-9/23
Obama 44 McCain 43

Kentucky - Rasmussen 9/30
McCain 52 Obama 42

Montana - Rasmussen 10/1
McCain 52 Obama 44

Nebraska - Rasmussen 9/30
McCain 56 Obama 37

North Carolina - Rasmussen 9/30
Obama 50 McCain 47

New Jersey - Strategic Vision 9/26-9/28
Obama 48 McCain 39

[keithy_19]

I see all these numbers...but what does it mean!?

http://z.about.com/d/animatedtv/1/7/0/R/MAsterShake.jpg

[epo]

I see all these numbers...but what does it mean!?

http://z.about.com/d/animatedtv/1/7/0/R/MAsterShake.jpg

Damn boy...McCain is fucked!

http://z.about.com/d/animatedtv/1/0/1/R/Meatwad.jpg

[GreatAmericanZero]

and heres the guy who does the voice of Obama

http://www.shavingstuff.com/images/Frylock.jpg

[K.C.]

Electoral-Vote.com has Obama at 338 today.

McCain's taking a beating.

[TheMojoPin]

Historically and statistically speaking, it would basically take a miracle for McCain to win this at this point.

[Jujubees2]

Historically and statistically speaking, it would basically take a miracle for McCain to win this at this point.

http://kaiser.dreamhost.com/OT_stuff/Dewey%20beats%20Truman.jpg

[hammersavage]

Historically and statistically speaking, it would basically take a miracle for McCain to win this at this point.

Never doubt the passion of closet racists. This isn't over by a long shot.

[mikeyboy]

Never doubt the passion of closet racists. This isn't over by a long shot.

^
This

[TheMojoPin]

http://kaiser.dreamhost.com/OT_stuff/Dewey%20beats%20Truman.jpg

Not really the same situation.

[K.C.]

Today's map:

http://img329.imageshack.us/img329/6599/mapns2.jpg

[TheMojoPin]

^
This

There would have to be a REALLY large number of REALLY racist people claiming they're voting for Obama right now who are going to decide otherwise to offset this.

On top of that, the polls are ignoring people who only have cell phones and no land lines, who demographically are overwhelming projected for Obama, and the polls tend to never track extensively in the black communities.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 40

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 48 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 49 McCain 42

GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 46

Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 44


State Polls

North Carolina - Elon 9/29-10/2
Obama 44 McCain 42

New Hampshire - Saint Anselm College 9/20-9/25
Obama 49 McCain 37

New Hampshire - Rasmussen 10/1
Obama 53 McCain 43

Minnesota - SurveyUSA
McCain 47 Obama 46

[HBox]

State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 50 McCain 40


State Polls

Nevada - Rasmussen 10/1
Obama 51 McCain 47

Washington - Rasmussen 10/1
Obama 53 McCain 43

[GreatAmericanZero]

im surpised they are saying he is winning New Mexico and Colorado..i would think they were total Red States. And New Mexico's closeness to Arizona would help McCain I would think

[epo]

im surpised they are saying he is winning New Mexico and Colorado..i would think they were total Red States. And New Mexico's closeness to Arizona would help McCain I would think

The West is a different world. Their concerns are shifting greating upon environmental issues and you'd be surprised by the alliances by the hippies & the traditional hunters.

[NewYorkDragons80]

The West is a different world. Their concerns are shifting greating upon environmental issues and you'd be surprised by the alliances by the hippies & the traditional hunters.

Do you have any evidence to support this? I've seen centrists from both parties claim that their side is close to uniting the NRA and the Sierra Club, and it never quite pans out. If anything, Obama and McCain both strong environmentalist credentials, but only McCain has a record on the 2nd Amendment worth mentioning.

New Mexico and Colorado have attracted more and more hippies from California as their cities continue to develop, but there's no reason to believe that someone who is a passionate gun owner would vote for Obama unless there were other issues more inmportant to them where he and McCain diverge.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Sat - Obama 52 McCain 40
Sun - Obama 52 McCain 40

Diageo/Hotline
Sat - Obama 48 McCain 41
Sun - Obama 48 McCain 41

Gallup
Sat - Obama 50 McCain 42
Sun - Obama 50 McCain 42

Rasmussen
Sat - Obama 51 McCain 45
Sun - Obama 51 McCain 44


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Sat - Obama 51 McCain 39


State Polls

Maine - Rasmussen 10/2
Obama 51 McCain 46

Colorado - Mason-Dixon 9/29-10/1
Obama 44 McCain 44

Minnesota - Star Tribune
Obama 55 McCain 37

[HBox]

State Polls

Ohio - Columbus Dispatch 9/24-10/4
Obama 49 McCain 42

[epo]

Minnesota - Star Tribune
Obama 55 McCain 37

That number shocks me. The McCain camp has put a lot of resources into Minnesota.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 52 McCain 40

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 41

Gallup
Obama 50 McCain 42

GWU/Battleground
Obama 50 McCain 43

Rasmussen
Obama 52 McCain 44


National Polls

Zogby Interactive (I hesitate to even include these polls, but here it is, just don't take it too seriously) 10/2-10/3
Obama 48 McCain 44

Democracy Corps 10/1-10/5
Obama 48 McCain 45


State Polls

North Carolina - Public Policy Polling 10/4-10/5
Obama 50 McCain 45

Georgia - Daily Kos/Research 2000 9/29-10/1
McCain 50 Obama 44

Virginia - SurveyUSA 10/4-10/5
Obama 53 McCain 43

Virginia - Suffolk 10/3-10/5
Obama 51 McCain 39

New Hampshire - SurveyUSA 10/4-10/5
Obama 53 McCain 40

New Mexico - Albuquerque Journal 9/29-10/2
Obama 45 McCain 40

[K.C.]

That number shocks me. The McCain camp has put a lot of resources into Minnesota.

Foolishly.

Like I said, even Mondale won Minnesota.

[K.C.]

Today's map:

http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/744/mapte3.jpg


353-185 Obama

[K.C.]

Virginia is a state that teeters on the North/South divide.

But North Carolina is a Nixon 'Solid South Strategy' state.

If Obama wins North Carolina, he'd essentially be shattering the glass ceiling there. Karl Rove was able to resurrect the Solid South in 2000, and really marginalized Gore and Kerry to the Northeast and the West Coast.

This would be a sea change in American electoral politics if Obama pulled it off. He doesn't need the state to win, but it'd be a huge boost for future Democratic candidates.

[HBox]

National Polls

CNN/Time 10/3-10/5
Obama 53 McCain 45

State Polls

Ohio - Democracy Corps
Obama 49 McCain 43

[HBox]

National Polls

Wall Street Journal/NBC News 10/4-10/5
Obama 49 McCain 43


State Polls

Colorado - FOX/Rasmussen 10/5
Obama 51 McCain 45 Barr 1 Nader 1 McKinney 1

Florida - FOX/Rasmussen 10/5
Obama 52 McCain 45 Nader 1

Missouri - FOX/Rasmussen 10/5
Obama 50 McCain 47 Barr 1 Nader 1

Ohio - FOX/Rasmussen 10/5
McCain 48 Obama 47 Barr 1 Nader 1

Ohio - Washington Post/ABC 10/3-10/5
Obama 51 McCain 45

Virginia - FOX/Rasmussen 10/5
Obama 50 McCain 48 Barr 1

[PhilDeez]

Virginia is a state that teeters on the North/South divide.

But North Carolina is a Nixon 'Solid South Strategy' state.

If Obama wins North Carolina, he'd essentially be shattering the glass ceiling there. Karl Rove was able to resurrect the Solid South in 2000, and really marginalized Gore and Kerry to the Northeast and the West Coast.

This would be a sea change in American electoral politics if Obama pulled it off. He doesn't need the state to win, but it'd be a huge boost for future Democratic candidates.

You are absolutely right. Here in Virginia, it is not a surprise that Obama is winning - back to back democratic govs and soon to be 2 democratic sens. I am shocked at the NC numbers. There really isn't a Northern Virginia area of NC. Charlotte is an up and coming city, but nothing like the metro areas of NOVA and the Tidewater areas of Virginia that go, sometimes heavily, democrat. That would really point to a true change.
I'm resigned to a loss for my team at this point, at least I won't be up until the wee hours on Nov. 4!

[K.C.]

You are absolutely right. Here in Virginia, it is not a surprise that Obama is winning - back to back democratic govs and soon to be 2 democratic sens. I am shocked at the NC numbers. There really isn't a Northern Virginia area of NC. Charlotte is an up and coming city, but nothing like the metro areas of NOVA and the Tidewater areas of Virginia that go, sometimes heavily, democrat. That would really point to a true change.
I'm resigned to a loss for my team at this point, at least I won't be up until the wee hours on Nov. 4!

I'm pretty surprised that NC's even in play, too.

I seem to remember reading at one point, though, that Virginia and North Carolina both were exploding in terms of the number of 'young, college graduate professionals' who Obama owns.

Part of it, too, is probably that McCain doesn't have the evangelical appeal that Bush did in the South.

Those people tend to trend more liberal economically, but vote their social beliefs. If McCain doesn't have the social credibility, I could see Obama picking up a little bit there (although, that 'Obama is a Muslim' story was designed for the sole purpose of scaring evangelicals away from him, so who knows...)

And then another part of it may be because Virginia and North Carolina both have a large military presence in their states. I wonder if McCain is even carrying the military families this time around, and by what percentage. I haven't seen any polling on it.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 52 McCain 41

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 46 McCain 44

Gallup
Obama 51 McCain 42

GWU/Battleground
Obama 50 McCain 43

Rasmussen
Obama 52 McCain 44

Zogby/Reuters
Obama 48 McCain 45


National Polls

ARG 10/4-10/6
Obama 49 McCain 45


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 48 McCain 38


State Polls

Indiana - CNN/Time 10/3-10/6
McCain 51 Obama 46
McCain 48 Obama 46 Barr 5

Indiana - Research 2000
McCain 46 Obama 46

New Hampshire - CNN/Time 10/3-10/6
Obama 53 McCain 45
Obama 51 McCain 43 Barr 3 Nader 1

North Carolina - CNN/Time 10/3-10/6
McCain 49 Obama 49
Obama 49 McCain 48 Barr 2

Ohio - CNN/Time 10/3-10/6
Obama 50 McCain 47
Obama 48 McCain 45 Nader 3 Barr 2

Ohio - Public Policy Polling 10/4-10/5
Obama 49 McCain 43

Wisconsin - CNN/Time 10/3-10/6
Obama 51 McCain 46
Obama 50 McCain 42 Nader 4 Barr 1

Wisconsin - SurveyUSA 10/5-10/6
Obama 52 McCain 42

Pennsylvania - SurveyUSA 10/5-10/6
Obama 55 McCain 40

Pennsyvania - Rasmussen 10/6
Obama 54 McCain 41

Florida - Mason-Dixon 10/4-10/6
Obama 48 McCain 46

Minnesota - University of Minnesota 10/3-10/5
Obama 54 McCain 40

Nevada - Research 2000 10/3-10/6
Obama 50 McCain 43

Alaska - Rasmussen 10/6
McCain 55 Obama 40

California - SurveyUSA 10/4-10/5
Obama 55 McCain 39

New Jersey - FDU 9/29-10/5
Obama 50 McCain 37

[scottinnj]

The West is a different world. Their concerns are shifting greating upon environmental issues and you'd be surprised by the alliances by the hippies & the traditional hunters.

Do you have any evidence to support this? I've seen centrists from both parties claim that their side is close to uniting the NRA and the Sierra Club, and it never quite pans out. If anything, Obama and McCain both strong environmentalist credentials, but only McCain has a record on the 2nd Amendment worth mentioning.

New Mexico and Colorado have attracted more and more hippies from California as their cities continue to develop, but there's no reason to believe that someone who is a passionate gun owner would vote for Obama unless there were other issues more inmportant to them where he and McCain diverge.



Nobody is claiming the two organizations are uniting, but some of the smaller clubs like state sportsman/fishing organizations and local wildlife preservation groups do find a whole lot of common ground, and long ago quit giving each other the stinkeye, and have actually sent lobbyists together on national wildlife bills.

[K.C.]

Today's map, factoring all polls (pre-debate)

http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/9271/mapvj7.jpg

364-174 Obama


Obama's pretty much reached his height I think. Indiana is narrowly in the McCain column. That would be the only other potential pickup.

Texas, West Virginia, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Montana are under 10% in McCain's column, but there'd have to be a drastic change to put any of those in serious play.

Obama's got a slight lead in North Carolina, Ohio, and Missouri.

He's opened modest leads in Virginia, Florida, and Pennsylvania.

[K.C.]

Here's a little bit of a breakdown to how many electoral votes are ACTUALLY going to be in play in terms of potentially shifting.

Safe Obama - 245 Electoral Votes (lead of > 10%)
California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District Of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Iowa (7)
Maryland (10)
Massachusettes (12)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Pennsylvania (21)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)

Leaning Obama - 61 Electoral Votes (10% < > 5%)
Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
New Mexico (5)
Ohio (20)
Wisconsin (10)
Virginia (13)

Slight Obama - 58 Electoral Votes (< 5%)
Florida (27)
Missouri (11)
Nevada (5)
North Carolina (15)

Slight McCain - 11 Electoral Votes (< 5%)
Indiana (11)

Leaning McCain - 63 Electoral Votes (10% < > 5%)
Georgia (15)
Montana (3)
Mississippi (6)
Texas (34)
West Virginia (5)

Strong McCain - 100 Electoral Votes (lead of > 10%)
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (5)
Wyoming (3)

[K.C.]

Now if I was looking at this strategically from the McCain camp, his only shot is as follows:

-Shift all resources from Pennsylvania to Florida. PA is done for the McCain campaign. They have no shot without Florida.
-Send Sarah Palin to Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada and have her spend the rest of the campaign in those three states.
-Ship surrogates like Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney up to New Hampshire and have them talk a fiscal conservatism, socially liberal/libertarian message.
-Launch a campaign heavily focused on McCain's military service, ties, and endorsements in rural Virginia and North Carolina.
-Have McCain spend the bulk of his time in Ohio driving wedge issues like guns and stressing oversight on the economy.


That's his best shot. He needs all those states to win. I think Palin could help deliver those three states I mentioned. Have her play her family and religious angle in Missouri and Colorado. Play up her energy background in Nevada.

New Hampshire, despite Obama's strong showing right now, is still fertile ground for McCain. It's no coincidence, though, that McCain's numbers nose-dived there with the Palin backlash. Palin is too overbearing socially for that state. Rudy and Romney would play better there.

But the bottom line is that McCain can have everything go right in aforementioned states, and he STILL needs to out campaign and out muscle Obama in Ohio and Florida.

He really needs to play an almost better than perfect game at this point.


Not looking good.

[HBox]

State Polls

North Carolina - SurveyUSA 10/5-10/6
McCain 49 Obama 46

Colorado - Insider Advantage 10/6
Obama 51 McCain 45

Nevada - Insider Advantage 10/6
Obama 49 McCain 47

[ralphbxny]

I think I want Mooch to be President!

[Kevin]

I think I want Mooch to be President!



Ralph, please, grown folks are talking here.

[Sinestro]

Now if I was looking at this strategically from the McCain camp, his only shot is as follows:

-Shift all resources from Pennsylvania to Florida. PA is done for the McCain campaign. They have no shot without Florida.
-Send Sarah Palin to Missouri, Colorado, and Nevada and have her spend the rest of the campaign in those three states.
-Ship surrogates like Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney up to New Hampshire and have them talk a fiscal conservatism, socially liberal/libertarian message.
-Launch a campaign heavily focused on McCain's military service, ties, and endorsements in rural Virginia and North Carolina.
-Have McCain spend the bulk of his time in Ohio driving wedge issues like guns and stressing oversight on the economy.


That's his best shot. He needs all those states to win. I think Palin could help deliver those three states I mentioned. Have her play her family and religious angle in Missouri and Colorado. Play up her energy background in Nevada.

New Hampshire, despite Obama's strong showing right now, is still fertile ground for McCain. It's no coincidence, though, that McCain's numbers nose-dived there with the Palin backlash. Palin is too overbearing socially for that state. Rudy and Romney would play better there.

But the bottom line is that McCain can have everything go right in aforementioned states, and he STILL needs to out campaign and out muscle Obama in Ohio and Florida.

He really needs to play an almost better than perfect game at this point.


Not looking good.


Where's the negative campaigning???

Like Did Obama really father his children?

Obama is a terrorist?

Obama is an Uncle Tom?

They don't call it the White house for nuthing.

You need to throw that stuff in there.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 41

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 45 McCain 44

Gallup
Obama 52 McCain 41

GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 45

Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 45

Zogby
Obama 47 McCain 45


National Polls

Ipsos/McClatchey 10/2-10/6
Obama 47 McCain 40


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Morning Call/Muhlenberg
Obama 50 McCain 38


State Polls

Oklahoma - TVPoll 10/4-10/5
McCain 66 Obama 29

Wisconsin - Rasmussen 10/6
Obama 54 McCain 44

Wisconsin - Research 2000 10/5-10/6
Obama 51 McCain 41

Minnesota - Rasmussen 10/7
Obama 52 McCain 45

Georgia - Rasmussen 10/7
McCain 54 Obama 45

[AKA]

Can Obama win if McCain gets Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio?

Right now, I'm having a hard time believing that either one can win if he doesn't pull Pennsylvania - I also think a lot of the slight and leaning Obama will shift back to McCain as we get closer, and this thing gets tighter. I have a hard time imagining that Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina will vote Democratic this election.

Pennsylvania (21)

Obama = 260

California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
District Of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (21)
Iowa (7)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
Michigan (17)
Minnesota (10)
New Hampshire (4)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Oregon (7)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (11)
Colorado (9)
Maine (4)
Wisconsin (10)
Virginia (13)

McCain = 267

Indiana (11)
Florida (27)
Ohio (20)
New Mexico (5)
Missouri (11)
Nevada (5)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia (15)
Montana (3)
Mississippi (6)
Texas (34)
West Virginia (5)
Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Arkansas (6)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Utah (5)
Wyoming (3)

[epo]

Can Obama win if McCain gets Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio?

Right now, I'm having a hard time believing that either one can win if he doesn't pull Pennsylvania - I also think a lot of the slight and leaning Obama will shift back to McCain as we get closer, and this thing gets tighter. I have a hard time imagining that Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri and North Carolina will vote Democratic this election.

Pennsylvania (21)



Sweeping all 3 states would make it difficult for any candidate. However since recent polling data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10) has Pennsylvania in the "Solid Obama", this seems like a fruitless conversation.

[Jujubees2]

Sweeping all 3 states would make it difficult for any candidate. However since recent polling data (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10) has Pennsylvania in the "Solid Obama", this seems like a fruitless conversation.

But Sarah Palin is dropping the puck at the Flyers game. That will surely turn the state back to McCain!

[mikeyboy]

Here's a hypothetical: God forbid, but how much of a game changer would another major terrorist attack on U.S. soil prior to the election be? McCain seems to have taken the hit that he has largely because the major focus of the American people is the economy. If that focus returned to terrorism, would it be enough to give McCain the turnaround he needs?

[Furtherman]

Here's a hypothetical: God forbid, but how much of a game changer would another major terrorist attack on U.S. soil prior to the election be? McCain seems to have taken the hit that he has largely because the major focus of the American people is the economy. If that focus returned to terrorism, would it be enough to give McCain the turnaround he needs?

Might not work. The current administration would be blamed for allowing the attack on their watch and McCain would be considered more of the same. Which he kinda is.

[AKA]

McCain and Palin are spending so much time in Pennsylvania and Florida - for them the entire election hinges on those two states. Ohio really is a toss up, but it's hard to see Ohio going for Obama if Pennyslvania goes for McCain. There are 3 weeks left right now, and if enough of the "Obama is a terrorist" shit gets sucked into conventional wisdom among enough of the people, I can see the margins getting tighter...I ain't counting or assuming nothing yet...

Might not work. The current administration would be blamed for allowing the attack on their watch and McCain would be considered more of the same. Which he kinda is.

Except that Obama could be deemed not ready to handle that kind of threat.

[epo]

McCain and Palin are spending so much time in Pennsylvania and Florida - for them the entire election hinges on those two states. Ohio really is a toss up, but it's hard to see Ohio going for Obama if Pennyslvania goes for McCain. There are 3 weeks left right now, and if enough of the "Obama is a terrorist" shit gets sucked into conventional wisdom among enough of the people, I can see the margins getting tighter...I ain't counting or assuming nothing yet...


That's the worst desperation play that I've seen in my life by the McCain camp.

[JerseySean]

Its a smart play. It wont move numbers nut it will prevent Obama's numbers from crystalizing.

[JerseySean]

And actually, the way the map works out, Obama could go and win VA, IA, CO and NM from the Bush states and all McCain needs to do is win PA and hold Florida and Mccain wins with 273

[angrymissy]

PA has gone solid blue, it's not even leaning anymore. Recent poll there had Obama by 15%

[celery]

That's the worst desperation play that I've seen in my life by the McCain camp.

Drudge is getting desperate, too. Highlighting a claim that the Obama plane "smells bad" and trying his best to portray Obama as an angry black man.

http://i38.tinypic.com/33ue9uw.jpg

[angrymissy]

Drudge is getting desperate, too. Highlighting a claim that the Obama plane "smells bad" and trying his best to portray Obama as an angry black man.

http://i38.tinypic.com/33ue9uw.jpg

lol, I've seen that "Obama's smelly plane" article linked on numerous forums today. Reeks of desperation.

[epo]

Drudge is getting desperate, too. Highlighting a claim that the Obama plane "smells bad" and trying his best to portray Obama as an angry black man.

http://i38.tinypic.com/33ue9uw.jpg

But he's "exotic"!

Senator McCain, you are destroying your personal legacy!

[JerseySean]

PA has gone solid blue, it's not even leaning anymore. Recent poll there had Obama by 15%

The electorate will move back towards McCain to some degree. If it doesnt it wont even be an issue because Obama will win NC, GA, OH, IN, etc. and this wont even be a discussion

[epo]

The electorate will move back towards McCain to some degree. If it doesnt it wont even be an issue because Obama will win NC, GA, OH, IN, etc. and this wont even be a discussion

GA yes.

IN & NC - Maybe

OH - No.

This is a death march for the republicans. Save your Senators, Representatives and locals.

[AKA]

Here's a hypothetical: God forbid, but how much of a game changer would another major terrorist attack on U.S. soil prior to the election be? McCain seems to have taken the hit that he has largely because the major focus of the American people is the economy. If that focus returned to terrorism, would it be enough to give McCain the turnaround he needs?

Back to this for a moment - it is a sad commentary on the state of the two party system where a terrorist attack is good for one party and an economic meltdown is good for the other.

[AKA]

lol, I've seen that "Obama's smelly plane" article linked on numerous forums today. Reeks of desperation.

Nice!

http://www.lafm.com/SOUL%20PLANE.jpg

I bet is smells funky!

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 41

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 41

Gallup
Obama 52 McCain 41

GWU/Battleground
Obama 48 McCain 45

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 45

Zogby
Obama 48 McCain 44


State Polls

West Virginia - ARG 10/4-10/8
Obama 50 McCain 42

Texas - ARG 10/5-10/8
McCain 57 Obama 38

Ohio - ARG 10/5-10/7
Obama 48 McCain 45

New Hampshire - ARG 10/6-10/8
Obama 52 McCain 43

Montana - ARG 10/6-10/8
McCain 50 Obama 45

Missouri - ARG 10/4-10/6
McCain 49 Obama 46

Minnesota - ARG 10/4-10/7
Obama 47 McCain 46

Virginia - Public Policy Polling 10/6-10/7
Obama 51 McCain 43

Pennsylvania - Strategic Vision 10/5-10/7
Obama 54 McCain 40

Georgia - Strategic Vision 10/5-10/7
McCain 50 Obama 43

New Jersey - Rasmussen 10/7
Obama 50 McCain 42

Michigan - Rasmussen 10/8
Obama 56 McCain 40

[HBox]

State Polls

Florida - Rasmussen 10/8
Obama 50 McCain 47

Indiana - Rasmussen 10/8
McCain 50 Obama 43

North Carolina - Rasmussen 10/8
Obama 49 McCain 48

[scottinnj]

Back to this for a moment - it is a sad commentary on the state of the two party system where a terrorist attack is good for one party and an economic meltdown is good for the other.

QFT, and every journalist that asks that kind of question should be smacked. These events are not about the advancement of politicians or parties, they are crises that must be met by a UNITED States of America.

[JerseySean]

QFT, and every journalist that asks that kind of question should be smacked. These events are not about the advancement of politicians or parties, they are crises that must be met by a UNITED States of America.

It is a legit question though as crass as it may seem. Bottom line is when we are in trouble economically, we want to go to Democrats for the last 20 years or so and when we have to deal with global political challenges this country has trusted Republicans for the last 50 years or so.

[HBox]

State Polls

Ohio - Strategic Vision 10/6-10/8
Obama 48 McCain 46

Florida - Strategic Vision 10/6-10/8
Obama 52 McCain 44

[HBox]

State Polls

North Carolina - Civitas 10/6-10/8
Obama 48 McCain 43

[AKA]

Seriously, HBox - this thread had become like Christmas every day. Maybe we're still not seeing the full effects of these new negative ads, but maybe with some, like the daily tracking polls, we really are - and that just might make me have restored faith in most people and their ability to see past the noise.

Kind of hard not to - on a day where the dow goes below 9000 and McCain and Palin are still screaming about stuff they should have been screaming about weeks and weeks ago if it was so fucking important - maybe the people really do see what's going on.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 52 McCain 40

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 48 McCain 41

Gallup
Obama 51 McCain 41

GWU/Battleground
Obama 51 McCain 43

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 45

Zogby
Obama 48 McCain 43


National Polls

Fox News 10/8-10/9
Obama 46 McCain 39

Newsweek 10/8-10/9
Obama 52 McCain 41


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 51 McCain 38


State Polls

Vermont - Rasmussen 10/6
Obama 65 McCain 32

Georgia - Insider Advantage 10/9
McCain 49 Obama 46

Ohio - Insider Advantage 10/9
Obama 49 McCain 44

Wisconsin - Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 41

Oregon - Rasmussen
Obama 54 McCain 43

[hammersavage]

Ok, if he's leads the Fox News poll, I have real hope that he's gonna pull this out.

[TheMojoPin]

Ok, if he's leads the Fox News poll, I have real hope that he's gonna pull this out.

Relax. This thing has been in the bag for a while. Short of something seriously insane and huge happening in the next 3 weeks. we know who the next president is going to be.

[GreatAmericanZero]

some of these polls has Obama winning over 13 points which would mean that Earl won't have to buy a Florio's dinner for everyone!

[PapaBear]

some of these polls has Obama winning over 13 points which would mean that Earl won't have to buy a Florio's dinner for everyone!
I can't remember. Does Earl get anything if he wins the bet, or is it a Dave style bet?

[GreatAmericanZero]

I can't remember. Does Earl get anything if he wins the bet, or is it a Dave style bet?

he gets racial equality

[NickyL0885]

I was doing some math. McCain needs Pennsylvania to win no matter what. Even if he wins Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, North Carolina and Florida along with the other states he should win, he is short by 9 points. and Obama is over by 7 points. so, unless he can steal a state in some way that is unholy, then its over.

I agree with the news outlets. This is like Bob Dole all over again. He is just an old man playing out the string until its over. Obama needs to be burry him once and for all at the debate next week.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Sat: Obama 52 McCain 40
Sun: Obama 53 McCain 40

Diageo/Hotline
Sat: Obama 50 McCain 40
Sun: Obama 49 McCain 41

Gallup
Sat: Obama 51 McCain 42
Sun: Obama 50 McCain 43

Rasmussen
Sat: Obama 52 McCain 45
Sun: Obama 51 McCain 45

Zogby
Sat: Obama 48 McCain 44
Sun: Obama 49 McCain 43


State Polls

California - Rasmussen 10/9
Obama 56 McCain 40

Colorado - Public Policy Polling 10/8-10/10
Obama 52 McCain 42

Ohio - University of Cincinnati 10/4-10/8
McCain 48 Obama 46

Oregon - Rasmussen 10/9
Obama 51 McCain 42

North Carolina - WSOC-TV 10/6-10/7
McCain 48 Obama 46

Alabama - SurveyUSA 10/8-10/9
McCain 62 Obama 35

Florida - Research 2000 10/6-10/8
Obama 49 McCain 44

Iowa - SurveyUSA 10/8-10/9
Obama 54 McCain 41

Nevada - Mason-Dixon 10/8-10/9
Obama 47 McCain 45

[cougarjake13]

looks like obama is pretty much dominating

[AKA]

Politico just updated their swingstate map and for the first time put Missouri (!) in the Obama pile...

Politico Battle Ground State Map (http://www.politico.com/convention/swingstate.html)

[mendyweiss]

Why Just 35 % For Obama In Alabama ?

[Jujubees2]

Why Just 35 % For Obama In Alabama ?

Haven't you heard? He's black (and an A-RAB)

[K.C.]

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/2870/mapeu0.jpg

357-181 Obama

Obama moves ahead in North Dakota in two separate polls...interesting.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 52 McCain 40

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 48 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 51 McCain 41

GWU/Battleground
Obama 51 McCain 43

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 45

Zogby
Obama 48 McCain 44


National Polls

Washington Post/ABC News 10/8-10/11
Obama 53 McCain 43

Democracy Corps 10/8-10/12
Obama 50 McCain 40

USA Today/Gallup
Obama 52 McCain 45


State Polls

North Dakota - The Forum 10/6-10/8
Obama 45 McCain 43

Ohio - Marist 10/5-10/8
Obama 49 McCain 45

Ohio - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12
Obama 49 McCain 47

Pennsylvania - Marist 10/5-10/8
Obama 53 McCain 41

Missouri - SurveyUSA 10/11-10/12
Obama 51 McCain 43

Missouri - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12
Obama 50 McCain 47

Georgia - SurveyUSA 10/11-10/12
McCain 51 Obama 43

New Jersey - SurveyUSA 10/11-10/12
Obama 55 McCain 40

New York - SurveyUSA 10/11-10/12
Obama 64 McCain 31

Florida - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12
Obama 51 McCain 46

North Carolina - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12
Obama 48 McCain 48

Virginia - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12
Obama 50 McCain 47

[cougarjake13]

just a weird thought i had and dont know if anyone has mentioned it


but wasnt one of osama bin ladens objectives to mess with our financial system ??

[GreatAmericanZero]

just a weird thought i had and dont know if anyone has mentioned it


but wasnt one of osama bin ladens objectives to mess with our financial system ??

yeah its been mentioned alot


9/11 was suppose to be a financial attack...thats why they attacked the world trade center

then we spend an insane amount of money fighting a war in the wrong country to revenge 9/11.

The terrorists attacks were very effective.

[IMSlacker]

Nate Silver has updated his numbers. McCain's down to a 5% chance to win.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SPPiKmJOsTI/AAAAAAAAAT0/IpDEAID4ASc/S1600-R/1013_mainchart.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SPPia84w9SI/AAAAAAAAAUE/EJ3qtlVAkkU/S1600-R/1013_bigmap.png

[GreatAmericanZero]

Nate Silver has updated his numbers. McCain's down to a 5% chance to win.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SPPiKmJOsTI/AAAAAAAAAT0/IpDEAID4ASc/S1600-R/1013_mainchart.png http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_5ieXw28ZUpg/SPPia84w9SI/AAAAAAAAAUE/EJ3qtlVAkkU/S1600-R/1013_bigmap.png

whats those little red squares in neraska?

and they are saying Obama is going to win Missouri. Really?

[brettmojo]

whats those little red squares in neraska?\
Those are folks who have signs on their lawns that read,"OBAMA HALF BREED MUSLIN"...

LIIINGGGEREREOR EI{N{TE H{)T *H)@@!!

[epo]

whats those little red squares in neraska?

and they are saying Obama is going to win Missouri. Really?

Both Maine & Nebraska have different rules than the other 48 states, although they rarely if ever break from an entire state of the same. From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) for the easiest explanation:

The two other states, Maine and Nebraska, use a tiered system where a single elector is chosen within each Congressional district and two electors are chosen by statewide popular vote.

If a state like that split it would be a huge story...for political junkies!

[scottinnj]

Ever since John Ashcroft lost the gubernatorial election in Missouri to a dead guy, I haven't been surprised at all that Obama has had more then a fighting chance to win Missouri in 08.

In fact, when Hillary started surging late in the game, I figured she would overtake Obama and the show me state would be an automatic "D" in November.

It's not that Missourians aren't politically in the center/conservative, it's that they are, like everyone else, mad at Bush and the GOP and are looking for reasons to vote for Obama, and these past 2 weeks he's been doing a better job at winning voters then McCain has at keeping voters.

[IMSlacker]

and they are saying Obama is going to win Missouri. Really?


State Polls

Missouri - SurveyUSA 10/11-10/12
Obama 51 McCain 43

Missouri - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/12
Obama 50 McCain 47

damn, it's hard to quote/edit Hbox's posts.

[epo]

New Wisconsin poll from Quinnipac:

Obama 54
McCain 37

Link here. (http://www.jsonline.com/watch/?watch=1&date=10/14/2008&id=47476)

[AKA]

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/2870/mapeu0.jpg

357-181 Obama

Obama moves ahead in North Dakota in two separate polls...interesting.

3 weeks to go - how awesome would it be to bridge the country together with Obama Blue!

[K.C.]

3 weeks to go - how awesome would it be to bridge the country together with Obama Blue!

It'd be fantastic, because, like I've said before, it'd be a pretty big sea change in American politics.

But, I still think it will be very difficult.

I'm still projecting a 286-252 Obama win, despite him being so far ahead in a lot of states.

I think there will be a Bradley Effect type deal in places like Missouri, Florida, Ohio, North Dakota, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Nevada.

I could see McCain narrowly edging Obama out in a few of those states.

But he's so far ahead, it would have to be a massive nationwide type thing that cost him states he has locked up solidly for him to lose.

So Obama should win, but it will be a lot closer than the current poll projections, I think.

[AKA]

I think the "Bradley Effect" will happen in some states - BUT - I also think the reverse is also possible - where some 'seeds who will tell their families they are voting McCain, at the last minute will go with Obama because they feel the need for sweeping change is needed at this moment in time. And, to be fair - it's not really the hayseeds so much as the blue dog democrats or moderate republicans in some real red states who deep down would like to vote for McCain, but can't see how McCain/Palin is going to be that different from the last 8 years.

[AKA]

The 7-Election (http://www.7-election.com/)

[mikeyboy]

The 7-Election (http://www.7-election.com/)

Obama is winning all the states they track, except for 3.

[Furtherman]

COLUMBUS, OH – (MARKET WIRE) – 10/14/08 – The crumbling economy appears to be boosting sentiments for change as Obama’s Net Promotor Score* (NPS) increased 5 points since last month, according to BIGresearch’s (http://www.bigresearch.com) October Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey of 8,117 respondents. While McCain’s NPS decreased month over month, Obama made gains among both Democrats and Republicans.

[celery]

The 7-Election (http://www.7-election.com/)

I noticed they're doing this, and it's really a brilliant marketing idea. It's also surprising how many of the red states are pro-Obama.

[GreatAmericanZero]

I noticed they're doing this, and it's really a brilliant marketing idea. It's also surprising how many of the red states are pro-Obama.

i think this time around, the Obama supporters are the ones who are passionate about their candidate, the other side is "i'll support him because hes on the side i support (or against the side i hate)".

in 2004 it was the opposite, I don't think anyone really was in love with kerry..he just wasn't bush

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 52 McCain 41

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 48 McCain 42

Gallup
Obama 53 McCain 43

GWU/Battleground
Obama 53 McCain 40

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 45

Zogby
Obama 49 McCain 43


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 51 McCain 38


State Polls

Oklahoma - TVPoll 10/4-10/5
McCain 66 Obama 29

Colorado - Quinnipiac
10/3-10/7 - Obama 52 McCain 43
10/8-10/12 - Obama 52 McCain 43

Colorado - Suffolk 10/10-10/13
Obama 47 McCain 43

Michigan - Quinnipiac
10/3-10/7 - Obama 55 McCain 37
10/8-10/12 - Obama 54 McCain 38

Minnesota - Quinnipiac
10/3-10/7 - Obama 51 McCain 43
10/8-10/12 - Obama 51 McCain 40

Wisconsin - Quinnipiac
10/3-10/7 - Obama 51 McCain 43
10/8-10/12 - Obama 54 McCain 37

Missouri - Public Policy Polling 10/11-10/12
Obama 48 McCain 46

North Carolina - Public Policy Polling 10/11-10/12
Obama 49 McCain 46

Ohio - SurveyUSA 10/12-10/13
Obama 50 McCain 45

Pennsylvania - SurveyUSA 10/11-10/13
Obama 55 McCain 40

[AKA]

I'm feeling better about Pennsylvania...

Closing A Deal in Pennsylvania (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/13/AR2008101302170.html?hpid=opinionsbox1)

Robert Stutz, a recently retired hospital administrator, was, like many of his neighbors, skeptical of both the eventual nominees when they were on the primary ballot, "so I was mostly listening to Hillary at that point." But he's been impressed with Obama's health-care plan and says that McCain virtually disqualified himself with his vice presidential choice. "I can't imagine putting Sarah Palin in a position to be president of the United States," he said.

Peter Wilde, a retired high school teacher who was working on his car on a sunny afternoon, said he has decided on Obama, but "I really like John McCain, and in any other election but this one, I'd vote for him. He's a man of integrity and he speaks his mind."

[GreatAmericanZero]

during this election, you aren't hearing that many stories of "i'm a lifelong democrat but this election i'm supporting mccain" (well outside of Joe Lieberman). In 2004 alot of Dems were like that because so many of them believed "you don't change president in the middle of a war!"

[HBox]

National Poll

CBS News/NY Times 10/10-10/13
Obama 53 McCain 39

LA Times/Bloomberg 10/10-10/13
Obama 50 McCain 41


State Polls

South Carolina - SurveyUSA 10/12-10/13
McCain 55 Obama 41

Delaware - Rasmussen 10/10
Obama 56 McCain 41

[high fly]

during this election, you aren't hearing that many stories of "i'm a lifelong democrat but this election i'm supporting mccain" (well outside of Joe Lieberman). In 2004 alot of Dems were like that because so many of them believed "you don't change president in the middle of a war!"


Not seeing too too many identifying themselves as "Bush Republicans"...

[AKA]

[color=navy]National Poll

CBS News/NY Times 10/10-10/13
Obama 53 McCain 39/color]

Holy shit!

Is this really a National Poll?

[HBox]

Holy shit!

Is this really a National Poll?

Yes, but CBS News/NY Times polls have been amongst the most Democratically tilted polls thus far so temper your interpretations. (http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/14/opinion/polls/main4522273.shtml)

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 52 McCain 41

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 49 McCain 41

Gallup
Obama 50 McCain 43

GWU/Battleground
Obama 51 McCain 43

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 45

Zogby
Obama 48 McCain 44

IBD/TIPP
Obama 45 McCain 42


National Polls

Ipsos/McClatchey 10/9-10/13
Obama 48 McCain 39

Pew 10/9-10/12
Obama 49 McCain 42


State Polls

New Mexico - SurveyUSA 10/12-10/13
Obama 52 McCain 45

New Mexico - Rasmussen 10/13
Obama 55 McCain 42

Washington - SurveyUSA 10/12-10/13
Obama 56 McCain 40

Florida - Datamar 10/12-10/13
Obama 47 McCain 42

Florida - Insider Advantage 10/13
Obama 48 McCain 44

Florida - CNN/Time 10/11-10/14
Obama 51 McCain 46

Nevada - Insider Advantage 10/13
Obama 49 McCain 46

North Carolina - Insider Advantage 10/13
Obama 48 McCain 46

West Virginia - Insider Advantage 10/13
McCain 48 Obama 46

Colorado - CNN/Time 10/11-10/14
Obama 51 McCain 47

Georgia - CNN/Time 10/11-10/14
McCain 53 Obama 45

Missouri - CNN/Time 10/11-10/14
McCain 49 Obama 48

Virginia - CNN/Time 10/11-10/14
Obama 53 McCain 43

Illinois - Rasmussen 10/13
Obama 56 McCain 39

Kansas - Rasmussen 10/13
McCain 54 Obama 41

Massachusetts - Rasmussen 10/13
Obama 62 McCain 34

[K.C.]

[color=navy][size=3]
Georgia - CNN/Time 10/11-10/14
McCain 53 Obama 45


This is the one my spies are telling me to keep an eye on in the final weeks, especially if Obama nets another comfortable debate win, thus pretty much ending any chance McCain has of building moment towards the finish line.

African American votes are a MUCH larger part of the electorate this year, and as McCain becomes less and less palatable to some staunch, old school conservatives down there, no one is quite sure what Bob Barr may pull from McCain (it is Barr's home state, and he's kind of popular).

It's not a completely ridiculous notion that Obama could net a 'Clinton in '92' style victory there, winning it with only 47 or 48 percent of the vote.

[IMSlacker]

You have spies?

[K.C.]

You have spies?

Oh DO I!

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!

[JerseySean]

This is the one my spies are telling me to keep an eye on in the final weeks, especially if Obama nets another comfortable debate win, thus pretty much ending any chance McCain has of building moment towards the finish line.

African American votes are a MUCH larger part of the electorate this year, and as McCain becomes less and less palatable to some staunch, old school conservatives down there, no one is quite sure what Bob Barr may pull from McCain (it is Barr's home state, and he's kind of popular).

It's not a completely ridiculous notion that Obama could net a 'Clinton in '92' style victory there, winning it with only 47 or 48 percent of the vote.

Your spies dont know shit. McKinnie is polling at about 9% in Hotlanta. She will take the more radical black voter from Obama, thus negating Barr. Wont happen, tell your spy, Ive seen better data.

[TheMojoPin]

Your spies dont know shit. McKinnie is polling at about 9% in Hotlanta. She will take the more radical black voter from Obama, thus negating Barr. Wont happen, tell your spy, Ive seen better data.

He's seen it...we can't see it, but he's seen it.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 52 McCain 41

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 49 McCain 41

Gallup
Obama 49 McCain 43

GWU/Battleground
Obama 50 McCain 44

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 46

Zogby
Obama 49 McCain 44


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 53 McCain 37


State Polls

New York - SurveyUSA 10/14
Obama 57 McCain 37

Connecticut - SurveyUSA 10/13-10/14
Obama 59 McCain 37

Ohio - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/14
Obama 49 McCain 49

Oregon - Rasmussen 10/14
Obama 54 McCain 41

[celery]

http://i34.tinypic.com/o5th0i.jpg

[K.C.]

He's seen it...we can't see it, but he's seen it.

Yeah...I'm really starting to think JerseySean is a board character.

[HBox]

http://i34.tinypic.com/o5th0i.jpg

Gallup has three different ways they are presenting their polls. The one I'm listing is registered voters. Then they have 2 ways in which they are listing likely voters. The one Drudge is listing is the likely voter model they were using in 2004. The updated likely voter model has Obama 51 McCain 45.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 52 McCain 42

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 50 McCain 40

Gallup
Registered Voters: Obama 50 McCain 43
Likely Voters - Expanded: Obama 51 McCain 45
Likely Voters - Traditional: Obama 49 McCain 47

GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 45

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 46

Zogby
Obama 49 McCain 44


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 53 McCain 39


State Polls

Texas - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/14-10/15
McCain 52 Obama 40

Florida - Research 2000 10/13-10/15
Obama 49 McCain 45

Florida - SurveyUSA 10/16
McCain 49 Obama 47

Mississippi - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/14-10/15
McCain 50 Obama 40

North Dakota - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/14-10/15
McCain 45 Obama 45

Missouri - Rasmussen 10/15
Obama 52 McCain 46

Wyoming - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/14-10/16
McCain 58 Obama 35

California - SurveyUSA 10/15-10/16
Obama 59 McCain 35

Georgia - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/14-10/15
McCain 49 Obama 43

Virginia - Christopher Newport University
Obama 49 McCain 43

[hammersavage]

It has gotten a tick tighter. I just hope we didn't peak a week or two ago. Lot of time left....

[K.C.]

It has gotten a tick tighter. I just hope we didn't peak a week or two ago. Lot of time left....

Maybe a tiny bit.

But here's the thing. While it would be nice if the numbers in Nevada, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, North Dakota, and Missouri hold up, and Obama wins in a landslide, thus creating a mandate for his platform, he needs NONE of those states to actually win the election.


It's very simple. If Obama:

-Holds all of Kerry's 2004 states (Every single Kerry '04 state, Obama holds by double-digits, except Minnesota and Maine where he's still ahead comfortably).

-Picks up New Mexico and Iowa (Both are a slam dunk. He's been leading by double-digits in both for almost two months now)

-Adds just ONE out of Virginia and Colorado (Surging in both states, and leading comfortably)


He's the President of the United States.


So while it'd be good for him actually getting some stuff done if he won with 325-350 electoral votes, he basically has the bare minimum he needs locked up.

It would take an ENORMOUS shift in a very, very short amount of time to shift any of the aforementioned Obama states to McCain.

[K.C.]

Solid Obama - 256 Electoral Votes ( > 10% )
California (55) - Obama +16
Connecticut (7) - Obama +17
Delaware (3) - Obama +15
District Of Columbia (3) - Obama +69
Hawaii (4) - Obama +41
Illinois (21) - Obama +17
Iowa (7) - Obama +13
Maryland (10) - Obama +23
Massachusettes (12) - Obama +24
Michigan (17) - Obama +16
Minnesota (10) - Obama +11
New Jersey (15) - Obama +15
New Mexico (5) - Obama +13
New York (31) - Obama +20
Oregon (7) - Obama +15
Pennsylvania (21) - Obama +13
Rhode Island (4) - Obama +19
Vermont (3) - Obama +24
Washington (11) - Obama +16
Wisconsin (10) - Obama +17

Leaning Obama - 46 Electoral Votes ( 5% < > 10%)
Colorado (9) - Obama +7
Maine (4) - Obama +5
Missouri (11) - Obama +6
Nevada (5) - Obama +5
New Hampshire (4) - Obama +9
Virginia (13) - Obama +6

Slight Obama - 15 Electoral Votes ( 5% > )
North Carolina (15) - Obama +2

True Ties - 23 Electoral Votes
North Dakota (3) - Straight Tie
Ohio (20) - Straight Tie

Slight McCain - 32 Electoral Votes ( 5% >)
Florida (27) - McCain +2
West Virginia (5) - McCain +2

Leaning McCain - 39 Electoral Votes ( 5% < > 10%)
Arizona (10) - McCain +7
Georgia (15) - McCain +6
Indiana (11) - McCain +7
Montana (3) - McCain +5

Strong McCain - 127 Electoral Votes ( > 10%)
Alabama (9) - McCain +20
Alaska (3) - McCain +15
Arkansas (6) - McCain +13
Idaho (4) - McCain +39
Kansas (6) - McCain +13
Kentucky (8) - McCain +10
Louisiana (9) - McCain +15
Mississippi (6) - McCain +10
Nebraska (5) - McCain +19
Oklahoma (7) - McCain +30
South Carolina (8) - McCain +14
South Dakota (3) - McCain +17
Tennessee (11) - McCain +19
Texas (34) - McCain +12
Utah (5) - McCain +32
Wyoming (3) - McCain + 23


http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/9783/mapnx8.jpg


So it looks, that a couple things are happening.

1) States that were leaning towards Obama are solidifying for Obama.

2) McCain has made some slight gains, overall. He's reversed momentum in Florida, West Virginia, and Ohio, and North Carolina.

3) Obama, however, is surging in Colorado and Missouri. Two states McCain almost HAS to have to win the presidency.

4) On McCain's side, keep an eye on Georgia and Montana and whether they move closer to the toss-up column over the next week.

5) On Obama's side, he seems to have lost some juice in Maine, Nevada and North Carolina. Watch them, to see if they move back close to toss-up. He's also leveled off in Virginia. He seemed to be on his way to cruising there, but has pretty much stalled at 6%.

Overall, there's been a slight shift to McCain this week.

But he would need another week of solid gains to really give him a fighting chance.

Not quite over. But very very close.

[K.C.]

Now interestingly enough, it was said on Meet The Press this morning that Obama is going for the kill in Missouri, West Virginia (where he's going to sink $5 million in the final two weeks), and North Carolina.

It's a bold strategy, but I wonder if McCain can backdoor his way in to Colorado, Nevada, Florida, and Ohio while Obama is going there.

If Obama invests heavily in those first three states and still loses all three, and McCain uses this time to blitz the other four states I mentioned...we could have a legit race.

Obama could play it safe, and win with 285-290 electoral votes pretty easily. Got to give him credit for going for the kill. Could be costly, though.

[celery]

I was amazed by his turnout in Missouri.

http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/photo/2008/10/18/PH2008101801260.jpg

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Sat: Obama 50 McCain 43
Sun: Obama 50 McCain 43

Diageo/Hotline
Sat: Obama 49 McCain 42
Sun: Obama 48 McCain 41

Gallup
Registered Voters:
Sat: Obama 50 McCain 42
Sun: Obama 52 McCain 42

Likely Voters - Expanded:
Sat: Obama 50 McCain 46
Sun: Obama 51 McCain 44

Likely Voters - Traditional:
Sat: Obama 49 McCain 47
Sun: Obama 49 McCain 46

Rasmussen
Sat: Obama 50 McCain 45
Sun: Obama 51 McCain 45

Zogby
Sat: Obama 48 McCain 44
Sun: Obama 48 McCain 45

IBD/TIPP
Sat: Obama 47 McCain 40


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Sat: Obama 52 McCain 39
Sun: Obama 52 McCain 40


State Polls

Ohio - NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/16-10/17
McCain 46 Obama 45

West Virginia - NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/16-10/17
McCain 47 Obama 41

West Virginia - Public Policy Polling
McCain 50 Obama 42

Wisconsin - NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/16-10/17
Obama 51 McCain 39

Maine - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/14-10/15
Obama 55 McCain 39

North Carolina - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/14-10/15
Obama 46 McCain 44

Alaska - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/14-10/16
McCain 57 Obama 38

Oregon - Daily Kos/Research 2000 10/14-10/15
Obama 53 McCain 38

Colorado - Rasmussen 10/16
Obama 52 McCain 45

Nevada - Rasmussen 10/16
Obama 50 McCain 45

[hammersavage]

Zogby's back up to 5.5 today. Maybe there was a bump from Powell?

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 50 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +1

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +2

Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 52 McCain 41 - Trend Obama +1

Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 52 McCain 43 - Trend Obama +2

Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 50 McCain 45 - Trend Obama +2

GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 45 - Trend Unchanged

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 46 - Trend McCain +2

Zogby
Obama 50 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +3

IBD/TIPP
Obama 47 McCain 41 - Trend Obama +1


National Polls

Democracy Corps 10/15-10/19
Obama 49 McCain 44 Nader 2 Barr 2

Economist 10/11-10/12
Obama 48 McCain 42

CNN 10/17-10/19
Obama 51 McCain 46


State Polls

Pennsylvania - Susquehanna 10/16-10/18
Obama 48 McCain 40

Virginia - Rasmussen 10/16
Obama 54 McCain 44

Virginia - SurveyUSA 10/18-10/19
Obama 51 McCain 45

Oregon - Grove 10/7-10/9
Obama 52 McCain 39

Georgia - Democracy Corps 10/15-10/19
McCain 46 Obama 44 Barr 2 Nader 2

North Carolina - Public Policy Polling 10/18-10/19
Obama 51 McCain 44

Ohio - Suffolk 10/16-10/19
Obama 51 McCain 42 Barr 1 Nader 1

Missouri - Suffolk 10/16-10/19
McCain 45 Obama 44 Nader 1

New Hampshire - Research 2000 10/17-10/19
Obama 50 McCain 43

Minnesota - SurveyUSA 10/16-10/18
Obama 50 McCain 44

Minnesota - Star Tribune 10/16-10/17
Obama 52 McCain 41

[K.C.]

Georgia - Democracy Corps 10/15-10/19
McCain 46 Obama 44 Barr 2 Nader 2


My spies are ALWAYS right.

[Zorro]

I was amazed by his turnout in Missouri.

http://i109.photobucket.com/albums/n67/Chas4604/jesus.jpg

[GreatAmericanZero]

<object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/XiDmMBIyfsU&hl=en&fs=1"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><embed src="http://www.youtube.com/v/XiDmMBIyfsU&hl=en&fs=1" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true" width="425" height="344"></embed></object>

[hammersavage]

I got this haunting feeling that election day is gonna be like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. He's sure this time he's gonna kick it and at the last minute that bitch Lucy moves the ball and he falls flat on his ass. If she does that this time, i'ma rape Lucy and make her pay for her own rape kit.

[Zorro]

I got this haunting feeling that election day is gonna be like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football. He's sure this time he's gonna kick it and at the last minute that bitch Lucy moves the ball and he falls flat on his ass. If she does that this time, i'ma rape Lucy and make her pay for her own rape kit.

If that happens the Rodney King riots will look like a picnic.

[HBox]

National Polls

ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 53 McCain 44


State Polls

Colorado - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19
Obama 51 McCain 46 - Trend McCain +2

Florida - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19
McCain 49 Obama 48 - Trend McCain +6

Missouri - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19
Obama 49 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +1

North Carolina - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19
Obama 51 McCain 48 - Trend Obama +3

Ohio - FOX News/Rasmussen 10/19
McCain 49 Obama 47 - Trend McCain +2

Wisconsin - Survey USA 10/18-10/19
Obama 51 McCain 43

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 53 McCain 44 - Trend Unchanged

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 50 McCain 42 - Trend Unchanged

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 41 - Trend Obama +1

Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 52 McCain 41 - Trend Unchanged

Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 52 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +1

Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 51 McCain 44 - Trend Obama +2

GWU/Battleground
Obama 48 McCain 47 - Trend McCain +3

IBD/TIPP
Obama 47 McCain 41 - Trend Unchanged

Rasmussen
Obama 50 McCain 46 - Trend Unchanged

Zogby
Obama 50 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +2


National Polls

Pew 10/16-10/19
Obama 53 McCain 39

ARG 10/18-10/20
Obama 49 McCain 45


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 52 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +2


State Polls

Oklahoma - SurveyUSA 10/18-10/19
McCain 59 Obama 35

Wyoming - SurveyUSA 10/18-10/19
McCain 58 Obama 37

New Jersey - Quinnipiac 10/16-10/19
Obama 59 McCain 36

New Jersey - Monmouth University 10/15-10/18
Obama 55 McCain 38

Illinois - Chicago Tribune 10/16-10/18
Obama 56 McCain 32

Indiana - Public Policy Polling 10/18-10/19
Obama 48 McCain 46

North Carolina - Civitas 10/18-10/20
Obama 48 McCain 45

North Carolina - SurveyUSA 10/18-10/20
McCain 47 Obama 47

Florida - Public Policy Polling 10/16-10/19
Obama 48 McCain 47

Kentucky - SurveyUSA 10/18-10/20
McCain 54 Obama 41

South Carolina - Rasmussen 10/20
McCain 54 Obama 43

West Virginia - Rasmussen 10/20
McCain 52 Obama 43

[K.C.]

I find it interesting, now, upon listening to some Hannity and Limbaugh while I was in the car today, that the conservative mouth pieces are attacking the pollsters.

They also now refuse to credit any polling except the Likely Voters - Traditional model, that showed a couple days ago a 49-47 race (and has already moved four points towards Obama the last couple days).

Every indication points to an electorate shift this election, in terms of the demographics of registered voters.

The McCain bandwagon has basically resorted to "if I choose not to believe it, it must not be true."

Kind of pathetic, actually.

[scottinnj]

My question is this:

CNN and Fox are saying McCain is catching up to Obama in key states. So I checked FiveThirtyEight.com and it says McCain still has less then a 10% chance of winning.

I know the election is close at hand, but if McCain is catching up, isn't this sort of like when Kerry was ahead of Bush and Bush wound up blowing him away? Or was this already asked?

[K.C.]

My question is this:

CNN and Fox are saying McCain is catching up to Obama in key states. So I checked FiveThirtyEight.com and it says McCain still has less then a 10% chance of winning.

I know the election is close at hand, but if McCain is catching up, isn't this sort of like when Kerry was ahead of Bush and Bush wound up blowing him away? Or was this already asked?

He's catching up in Florida and Ohio.

But he needs to catch up in Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia.

So while he's made some slight gains, he's still behind the eight ball. I think he has to run the table on all those aforementioned states to win.

[HBox]

National Polls

NBC/Wall Street Journal 10/17-10/20
Obama 52 McCain 42

Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16-10/20
Obama 50 McCain 42


State Polls

Nevada - Insider Advantage 10/19
McCain 47 Obama 47

North Carolina - Insider Advantage 10/19
Obama 49 McCain 48

Colorado - Insider Advantage 10/19
Obama 51 McCain 46

[K.C.]

This is pretty telling:

This really shakes out to be the absolute BEST case scenario for McCain.

http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/10/21/mccain_2.jpg

The one thing I would change is that I think it's more likely he wins Colorado & Virginia as opposed to PA, where I think he has no shot.

But at best, McCain would top out at 273 or 274 electoral votes, basically meaning absolutely no margin for error. He has to run the table on EVERY battle ground state.

Obama's best case scenario could top out between 386 electoral votes and 401, depending on whether you believe the most recent polling showing Georgia moving hastily towards the toss-up column.

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 54 McCain 43 - Trend Obama +2

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 41 - Trend Obama +2

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 47 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +1

Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 51 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +2

Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 52 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +2

Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 50 McCain 45 - Trend McCain +2

GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 47 - Trend Obama +1

IBD/TIPP
Obama 46 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +2

Rasmussen
Obama 51 McCain 45 - Trend Obama +2

Zogby
Obama 52 McCain 42 - Trend Obama +2


National Polls

Franklin and Marshall 10/13-10/19
Obama 50 McCain 45

FOX News 10/20-10/21
Obama 49 McCain 40

AP 10/16-10/20
Obama 44 McCain 43


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 52 McCain 41 - Trend Obama +1


State Polls

Maine - SurveyUSA 10/19-10/20
Obama 54 McCain 39

Maine - Pan Atlantic 10/14-10/16
Obama 51 McCain 39

Washington - Elway 10/16-10/19
Obama 55 McCain 36

Alaska - Ivan Moore 10/17-10/19
McCain 53 Obama 42

Wisconsin - Wisconsin Public Radio 10/9-10/17
Obama 51 McCain 38

Wisconsin - Research 2000 10/20-10/21
Obama 52 McCain 41

Virginia - Mason-Dixon 10/20-10/21
Obama 47 McCain 45

Virginia - CNN/Time 10/19-10/21
Obama 54 McCain 44

Florida - Mason-Dixon 10/20-10/21
McCain 46 Obama 45

West Virginia - Rainmaker 10/14-10/15
McCain 42 Obama 41

West Virginia - CNN/Time 10/19-10/21
McCain 53 Obama 44

Nevada - CNN/Time 10/19-10/21
Obama 51 McCain 46

North Carolina - CNN/Time 10/19-10/21
Obama 51 McCain 47

North Carolina - WSOC-TV 10/20-10/21
Obama 48 McCain 46

Ohio - CNN/Time 10/19-10/21
Obama 50 McCain 46

Kentucky - Rasmussen 10/21
McCain 52 Obama 44

Tennessee - Rasmussen 10/21
McCain 54 Obama 42

[HBox]

National Tracking Polls

ABC News/Washington Post
Obama 54 McCain 43 - Trend Unchanged

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama 51 McCain 41 - Trend Unchanged

Diageo/Hotline
Obama 48 McCain 43 - Trend Unchanged

Gallup
Registered Voters:
Obama 50 McCain 43 - Trend McCain +2

Likely Voters - Expanded:
Obama 51 McCain 45 - Trend McCain +2

Likely Voters - Traditional:
Obama 50 McCain 46 - Trend McCain +1

GWU/Battleground
Obama 49 McCain 45 - Trend Obama +1

IBD/TIPP
Obama 45 McCain 44 - Trend McCain +5

Rasmussen
Obama 52 McCain 45 - Trend Obama +1

Zogby
Obama 52 McCain 40 - Trend Obama +2


National Polls

CBS/NY Times 10/19-10/22
Obama 52 McCain 39

Big 10 10/19-10/22
Obama 52 McCain 43


State Tracking Polls

Pennsylvania - Muhlenberg/Morning Call
Obama 52 McCain 42 - Trend McCain +1


State Polls

Florida - Quinnipiac 10/16-10/21
Obama 49 McCain 44

Florida - St. Petersberg Times
Obama 49 McCain 42

Ohio - Quinnipiac 10/16-10/21
Obama 52 McCain 38

Ohio - Big 10 10/19-10/22
Obama 53 McCain 41

Pennsylvania - Quinnipiac 10/16-10/21
Obama 53 McCain 40

Pennsylvania - Big 10 10/19-10/22
Obama 52 McCain 42

Pennsylvania - National Journal 10/16-10/20
Obama 51 McCain 41

Pennsylvania - SurveyUSA 10/21-10/22
Obama 53 McCain 41

Illinois - Big 10 10/19-10/22
Obama 61 McCain 32

Indiana - Big 10 10/19-10/22
Obama 51 McCain 42

Iowa - Big 10 10/19-10/22
Obama 52 McCain 39

Michigan - Big 10 10/19-10/22
Obama 58 McCain 36

Minnesota - Big 10 10/19-10/22
Obama 57 McCain 38

Minnesota - National Journal 10/16-10/20
Obama 50 McCain 40

Wisconsin - Big 10 10/19-10/22
Obama 53 McCain 42

Wisconisn - National Journal 10/16-10/20
Obama 53 McCain 40

West Virginia - Orion 10/20-10/21
McCain 49 Obama 44

Texas - Rasmussen 10/21
McCain 54 Obama 44

California - PPIC 10/21-10/19
Obama 56 McCain 33

Arkansas - University of Arkansas 10/1-10/21
McCain 51 Obama 36

Montana - MSU 10/16-10/20
Obama 44 McCain 40

Maine - Critical Insights 10/16-10/19
Obama 56 McCain 35

Maine - Rasmussen 10/22
Obama 56 McCain 41

Kansas - SurveyUSA 10/21-10/22
McCain 53 Obama 41

Louisiana - Rasmussen 10/21
McCain 57 Obama 41

Washington - Rasmussen 10/22
Obama 54 McCain 43

[IMSlacker]

Montana - MSU 10/16-10/20
Obama 44 McCain 40


wow

[KnoxHarrington]

This is interesting: as polls suggest the Republicans are in for an assbeating of historic proportions in a couple of weeks, some vulnerable Senate Republicans, including Elizabeth Dole, appear to be embracing a strategy of conceding that Obama will be elected President, and you must keep the Democrats from getting a "supermajority" in the Senate that will allow them to run the country unchecked.

Aimed at Kay Hagan, Sen. Elizabeth Dole's surprisingly strong Democratic challenger in North Carolina, the 30-second spot from the National Republican Senatorial Committee warns voters against Democrats holding the White House and Congress, and flatly states that if Hagan wins, the party will "get a blank check."

"These liberals want complete control of government in a time of crisis, all branches of government," the ad's narrator states. "No check and balances, no debate, no independence. That's the truth behind Kay Hagan. If she wins, they get a blank check."

If Congressional candidates start deserting McCain in any substantial numbers, this is over.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/23/obama.check/index.html

[K.C.]

Texas - Rasmussen 10/21
McCain 54 Obama 44


I would love to see this creep down to something like a five or six point win for McCain.

If that were to happen, the DNC would invest pretty heavily to try and flip the state over the next four years.


A few interesting polls caught my eye today (which I'm sure HBox will post later).

Rasmussen had Georgia down to five points. One poll actually had Obama up one point there (although, I don't buy it...the Rasmussen number seems more realistic to me).

Still, that state is closing quickly, like I predicted.

The Praire states being in play is fascinating to me, because I don't really have an explanation for it.

Montana makes a little sense to me, because Gov. Schweitzer was supposedly leading a new democrat type of revolution in that state, coalesced around environmentalism and social libertarianism.

I can't figure where North Dakota's coming from. And now, South Dakota is creeping back into play.

That'd be a big breakthrough if Obama won there.

[JerseySean]

I would love to see this creep down to something like a five or six point win for McCain.

If that were to happen, the DNC would invest pretty heavily to try and flip the state over the next four years.


A few interesting polls caught my eye today (which I'm sure HBox will post later).

Rasmussen had Georgia down to five points. One poll actually had Obama up one point there (although, I don't buy it...the Rasmussen number seems more realistic to me).

Still, that state is closing quickly, like I predicted.

The Praire states being in play is fascinating to me, because I don't really have an explanation for it.

Montana makes a little sense to me, because Gov. Schweitzer was supposedly leading a new democrat type of revolution in that state, coalesced around environmentalism and social libertarianism.

I can't figure where North Dakota's coming from. And now, South Dakota is creeping back into play.

That'd be a big breakthrough if Obama won there.

DNC is riding an anti GOP wavet right now. Two and four years from now, that wont be the case. We are living in an extreme political enviornment right now which is unnatural. Like 94'. 2002' 1932, etc. The world will right itself after this cycle

[TheMojoPin]

DNC is riding an anti GOP wavet right now. Two and four years from now, that wont be the case. We are living in an extreme political enviornment right now which is unnatural. Like 94'. 2002' 1932, etc. The world will right itself after this cycle

...

What?

Seriously, this makes no sense at all.

[K.C.]

DNC is riding an anti GOP wavet right now. Two and four years from now, that wont be the case. We are living in an extreme political enviornment right now which is unnatural. Like 94'. 2002' 1932, etc. The world will right itself after this cycle

It may 'right itself' in terms of the Republican Party winning back some seats in future elections.

But the Bush/Rove Republican Party, the style, and the agenda is absolutely, positively dead after this election.

There's going to have to be some substantial changes from within, about the party platform. It happened to the Democrats with the asskicking they took in the 80s, and it'll happen here.

History shows two things, after a loss of this magnitude for a political party. The party either adapts its agenda, or it dies.

The Republican Party is going to have to shift to the middle economically. They're probably going to have to go libertarian on social issues, and abandon the attempts to bind government and christian conservatism.

If the Republicans take the approach of 'we'll change nothing and just wait for them to come back to us,' you'll see a whole bunch of serious Independents running for Congress, and State Offices in 2012, preaching exactly what I said:

Moderate economic policy, social libertarianism.

[AKA]

DNC is riding an anti GOP wavet right now. Two and four years from now, that wont be the case. We are living in an extreme political enviornment right now which is unnatural. Like 94'. 2002' 1932, etc. The world will right itself after this cycle

ummmmm...1994-2008 has already been "an extreme political enviornment" - which followed 1981-1994, which was also "an extreme political environment" - which, of course, followed, 1968-1981 as an "extreme political environment" - and it should go without saying that those 1960s as a whole..."extreme political environment."

The "world" will "right" itself once again when the GOP kool-aid drinkers clear the sand out of their vaginas and take ownership for ruining this country.