Swine Flu Update

[Stalker Patti]

I would like to know regarding the swine fly: What precautions do I take since I have asthma and am a little concerned about ANY flu let alone SWINE...Is there really the epidemic the Media says there is and how can I protect myself, since I not only have the asthma, I take medication for mitro valve prolapse for which I have to see a cardiologist several times a year to be monitered. I am a little concerned and would like a response.

[Dr Steve]

I would like to know regarding the swine fly: What precautions do I take since I have asthma and am a little concerned about ANY flu let alone SWINE...Is there really the epidemic the Media says there is and how can I protect myself, since I not only have the asthma, I take medication for mitro valve prolapse for which I have to see a cardiologist several times a year to be monitered. I am a little concerned and would like a response.


Ok, here's the deal on Swine flu, and I'm glad you asked!

First, if anyone is too lazy to plow through this whole post, we will do 20 minutes on it on Weird Medicine this Saturday night at 5pm EDST. :smile:

"Swine Flu" is an influenza virus that is endemic in pigs. Pig farmers have a vaccine for it, guess what...we don't have a vaccine for humans. The could make one, but it would mean stopping production on next years' seasonal flu virus, so the vaccine manufacturers are waiting until the World Health Organization decides we have to have the vaccine. Pig flu occasionally jumps from porkers to humans; since it's a "novel" virus (i.e., one our immune systems haven't seen before), it's a perfect virus to cause a "Pandemic" (infection across continents or world-wide).

Symptoms of Swine Flu are the same as for regular influenza: 1) Fever (important...if you don't have fever (temp > 100.5 F), you don't have influenza) 2) muscle aches 3) cough 4) sore throat 5) maybe nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea

Serious cases can cause breathing problems. In 1918 the influenza virus infected 1/3 of the population of the Earth and killed 50,000,000 people (about 10% lethality). That pandemic was the worst we know of, but it's estimated that if they'd had antivirals and ventilators back then, nowhere near that many would have died.

In Mexico, they had 1600 cases, and about 103 deaths last time I checked. The cases have been leveling off over the last few days. Now, we have to remember, this is Mexico we're talking about...it is very likely that there were a LOT more than 1600 cases that just weren't reported, so the estimated lethality of this virus is a lot less than the 7 percent that was initially estimated.

One way to watch this outbreak is to go to http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu . Look at the number of cases each day. If it starts doubling every day, it's probably heading for pandemic status. If it levels off, you can breathe a sigh of relief.

How to prevent: Swine flu is transmitted by "fomites"...someone sneezes on their hand, opens a door (leaving mucus and virus from their filthy disgusting hands on the doorknob), someone else touches the doorknob and then sticks their finger in their nose. Simple as that. Don't be a germ freak, but wash your hands frequently during the day and don't put your fingers in your nose, mouth, or eyes. If you think you have it, for goodness sakes cover your mucosy pie-hole when you cough.

If you have an outbreak in your apartment building or something, your doctor MAY want to put you on a "prophylactic" dose of Tamiflu or Relenza. This will prevent serious infection with the virus.

The cool thing (if there is such a thing) about this virus is that it's totally susceptible to antiviral medications Tamiflu and Relenza. Tamiflu is a pill, Relenza is an inhaler and doesn't cause as much nausea and vomiting. They're both expensive, but the feds are supposed to help subsidize these meds if a country-wide emergency occurs.

You can NOT get "Swine Flu" from eating pork. People who are killing pigs wholesale because the virus started in pigs are insane. countries who are banning the importation of pork products from Mexico are similarly insane, if the only reason they're doing it is because they're scared they'll get flu from pork chops or tasty sausage. It has gotten so bad that the World Health Organization will no longer refer to this virus as "Swine Flu" but rather by it's flu nomenclature, H1N1 virus.

The flu vaccine for this last year offers no immunity to this damn virus.

I will now entertain questions on this subject.


your pal,



Steve

[Dr Steve]

From www.cdc.gov/swineflu

# of laboratory confirmed cases


Arizona 1
California 14
Indiana 1
Kansas 2
Massachusetts 2
Michigan 1
Nevada 1
New York 50
Ohio 1
South Carolina 10
Texas 26

TOTAL 109 cases 1 death

this was 90 total cases yesterday...it's too early to say if it's leveling off, but it certainly doesn't seem to be increasing geometrically yet.

[KC2OSO]

...

The flu vaccine for this last year offers no immunity to this damn virus.

I will now entertain questions on this subject.


Thanks Dr. Steve. Your posts always inform and give me a chuckle.

Protein Sciences in CT says (http://www.myrecordjournal.com/site/tab1.cfm?newsid=20305404&BRD=2755&PAG=461&dept_id=592709&rfi=6) they can do the vaccine small scale in 3 to 6 weeks. Big Pharma says 3 to 6 months. Wonder how that will play out.

[Marc with a c]

+ new york
- california

Arizona 1
California 13
Indiana 1
Kansas 2
Massachusetts 2
Michigan 1
Nevada 1
New York 51
Ohio 1
South Carolina 10
Texas 26

[weekapaugjz]

I could go for a tasty sausage right now.

[Drunky McBetidont]

I could go for a tasty sausage right now.

see, now i have to post a pic that gets me banned ffor a week or more:furious:

[weekapaugjz]

see, now i have to post a pic that gets me banned ffor a week or more:furious:

Just PM it to me.

[Foster]

Ok, here's the deal on Swine flu, and I'm glad you asked!

First, if anyone is too lazy to plow through this whole post, we will do 20 minutes on it on Weird Medicine this Saturday night at 5pm EDST. :smile:



shameless plug whore, using scare tactics to boost your ratings

[Thebazile78]

Thanks Dr. Steve. Your posts always inform and give me a chuckle.

Protein Sciences in CT says (http://www.myrecordjournal.com/site/tab1.cfm?newsid=20305404&BRD=2755&PAG=461&dept_id=592709&rfi=6) they can do the vaccine small scale in 3 to 6 weeks. Big Pharma says 3 to 6 months. Wonder how that will play out.

Big Pharma is also talking about doing 600 million doses ... which is enough to cover pretty much the entire population. That's not exactly "small scale"!

You're comparing apples to oranges here.

Smaller companies, doing things on a small scale, by their very nature are going to be a lot more nimble than a massive company doing things on a massive scale, not to mention testing for efficacy and getting approval. The entire process could take up to 6 months ... which is right in time for the annual Fall influenza vaccinations reminders.

No comparison.

Of course mentioning Fall vaccinations makes me wonder ... HEY! Dr. Steve! if this doesn't go pandemic but is still considered a caution by Fall, will H1N1 variant be included in the 2009-2010 flu vaccine?

[Thebazile78]

Also, the CDC site is updated once per day, usually in the late morning, like around 10 or 11am Eastern, and not updated more than that right now. (Personally, I think that's a good sign ... am I too optimistic?)

You can also use the NY Times' nifty interactive graphic showing both suspected and confirmed cases on 2 maps (Eastern & Western hemispheres) with blurbs updating readers on new statistics as reported by state agencies.

Obviously, the CDC should be anyone's primary resource because they're taking the lead on ensuring the US public is protected, but I still think the graphic at the Times is fun anyway.

Graphic: Tracking Swine Flu Cases Worldwide (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/04/27/us/20090427-flu-update-graphic.html?hp) (NY Times Online; week of 4/27; FREE, e-subscription may be required-it's free)

[nate1000]

+ new york
- california

Arizona 1
California 13
Indiana 1
Kansas 2
Massachusetts 2
Michigan 1
Nevada 1
New York 51
Ohio 1
South Carolina 10
Texas 26


:lol::lol::lol:

[TjM]

Ok, here's the deal on Swine flu, and I'm glad you asked!

First, if anyone is too lazy to plow through this whole post, we will do 20 minutes on it on Weird Medicine this Saturday night at 5pm EDST. :smile:

"Swine Flu" is an influenza virus that is endemic in pigs. Pig farmers have a vaccine for it, guess what...we don't have a vaccine for humans. The could make one, but it would mean stopping production on next years' seasonal flu virus, so the vaccine manufacturers are waiting until the World Health Organization decides we have to have the vaccine. Pig flu occasionally jumps from porkers to humans; since it's a "novel" virus (i.e., one our immune systems haven't seen before), it's a perfect virus to cause a "Pandemic" (infection across continents or world-wide).

Symptoms of Swine Flu are the same as for regular influenza: 1) Fever (important...if you don't have fever (temp > 100.5 F), you don't have influenza) 2) muscle aches 3) cough 4) sore throat 5) maybe nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea

Serious cases can cause breathing problems. In 1918 the influenza virus infected 1/3 of the population of the Earth and killed 50,000,000 people (about 10% lethality). That pandemic was the worst we know of, but it's estimated that if they'd had antivirals and ventilators back then, nowhere near that many would have died.

In Mexico, they had 1600 cases, and about 103 deaths last time I checked. The cases have been leveling off over the last few days. Now, we have to remember, this is Mexico we're talking about...it is very likely that there were a LOT more than 1600 cases that just weren't reported, so the estimated lethality of this virus is a lot less than the 7 percent that was initially estimated.

One way to watch this outbreak is to go to http://www.cdc.gov/swineflu . Look at the number of cases each day. If it starts doubling every day, it's probably heading for pandemic status. If it levels off, you can breathe a sigh of relief.

How to prevent: Swine flu is transmitted by "fomites"...someone sneezes on their hand, opens a door (leaving mucus and virus from their filthy disgusting hands on the doorknob), someone else touches the doorknob and then sticks their finger in their nose. Simple as that. Don't be a germ freak, but wash your hands frequently during the day and don't put your fingers in your nose, mouth, or eyes. If you think you have it, for goodness sakes cover your mucosy pie-hole when you cough.

If you have an outbreak in your apartment building or something, your doctor MAY want to put you on a "prophylactic" dose of Tamiflu or Relenza. This will prevent serious infection with the virus.

The cool thing (if there is such a thing) about this virus is that it's totally susceptible to antiviral medications Tamiflu and Relenza. Tamiflu is a pill, Relenza is an inhaler and doesn't cause as much nausea and vomiting. They're both expensive, but the feds are supposed to help subsidize these meds if a country-wide emergency occurs.

You can NOT get "Swine Flu" from eating pork. People who are killing pigs wholesale because the virus started in pigs are insane. countries who are banning the importation of pork products from Mexico are similarly insane, if the only reason they're doing it is because they're scared they'll get flu from pork chops or tasty sausage. It has gotten so bad that the World Health Organization will no longer refer to this virus as "Swine Flu" but rather by it's flu nomenclature, H1N1 virus.

The flu vaccine for this last year offers no immunity to this damn virus.

I will now entertain questions on this subject.


your pal,



Steve

So what you're saying is sell off your worldly possessions and move underground

[kdubya]

+ new york
- california

Arizona 1
California 13
Indiana 1
Kansas 2
Massachusetts 2
Michigan 1
Nevada 1
New York 51
Ohio 1
South Carolina 10
Texas 26

:clap:

[Kublakhan61]

Radio Psychic:

The Swine Flu infections will taper off as the summer comes on only to return with much more strength in the Fall - possibly killing many, many people!

[SatCam]

TOTAL 109 cases 1 death

this was 90 total cases yesterday...it's too early to say if it's leveling off, but it certainly doesn't seem to be increasing geometrically yet.

109 cases in two weeks????????? Arent there more pressing issues in this world to worry about?

My company actually started stockpiling enough Tamiflu for every employee. It's probably cheaper than paying out our sick days

[Alice S. Fuzzybutt]

My company actually started stockpiling enough Tamiflu for every employee. It's probably cheaper than paying out our sick days


Our company went "hog wild" (pardon the pun) on Purell dispensers.

[Dr Steve]

Here're the latest statistics:


Alabama 4
Arizona 17
California 49
Colorado 6
Connecticut 2
Delaware 20
Florida 5
Georgia 1
Idaho 1
Illinois 82
Indiana 3
Iowa 1
Kansas 2
Kentucky* 1
Louisiana 7
Maine 1
Maryland 4
Massachusetts 6
Michigan 2
Minnesota 1
Missouri 1
Nebraska 1
Nevada 1
New Hampshire 1
New Jersey 6
New Mexico 1
New York 90
North Carolina 1
Ohio 3
Oregon 15
Pennsylvania 1
Rhode Island 1
South Carolina 16
Tennessee 2
Texas 41
Utah 1
Virginia 3
Wisconsin 3

TOTAL (38) 403 cases 1 death


Everyone is definitely worried about H1N1 coming back in the fall. We should be ready for it by then; the virologists and vaccine mavens should have the population relatively immune to it by then (assuming it doesn't mutate AGAIN).

Barring a "perfect storm" of disasters, what happened in 1918 (1/3 of the world population gets flu, 1/10th of those die) should not happen again, ever. We now have antivirals, procedures to isolate cases, and way better medical care than they had back then. Our ability to communicate is 10,000 times better than it was back then as well, giving us all a heads-up way before a problem hits.

So hang in there, we'll keep you up to date. One of my best friends from residency is now the Vaccine Guru for the whole US; I'm hoping to get him to give me an interview so we can get the real dope. More later.


your pal,



steve