Recession Over?

[WRESTLINGFAN]

According to newsweek it is. A few weeks ago it was on their front cover. Tell me I am ruining the party but we are far from it. Sure the markets are up since the March lows, however I saw on CNN that by 2011 half of the mortgages will be underwater. Furthermore yesterdays Jobs report might have had the bubbly popped on CNBC but reporting that we didnt lose as many jobs as thought doesnt mean that all is good. Oil prices are going up and the dollar will get wearker due to the coming inflation. Cash for clunkers will be another disaster. Sure Kudlow and crew think that all is fine but people like Peter Schiff and Gerald Celente were right all along and there is no way that I can believe that this recession is over at all

[TripleSkeet]

I can only go by how business is in my own life. And right now I have more work coming through my business then Ive had since last Fall.

[razorboy]

Recess is over already? Dadgummit.

[lleeder]

I can only go by how business is in my own life. And right now I have more work coming through my business then Ive had since last Fall.

what do you do?

[Foster]

what do you do?

I hope he doesn't work with foreclosures

[Charlie_Don't_Surf]

Perhaps he's a tumble weed salesman.

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[TooLowBrow]

i just heard we took in 33 billion last year in cigarette taxes alone. this recession is SO over

[razorboy]

i just heard we took in 33 billion last year in cigarette taxes alone. this recession is SO over

That reminds me, I need a smoke.

[epo]

According to newsweek it is. A few weeks ago it was on their front cover. Tell me I am ruining the party but we are far from it. Sure the markets are up since the March lows,

In March the market dipped below 7K, now it is above 9.3K. That is a solid recovery.

however I saw on CNN that by 2011 half of the mortgages will be underwater.

That would be the price of the subprime mortage fiasco, not of the current market.

Furthermore yesterdays Jobs report might have had the bubbly popped on CNBC but reporting that we didnt lose as many jobs as thought doesnt mean that all is good.

Unfortunately jobs are always a lagging indicator of economic conditions. An organization's business must grow before it will add more human capital to its expenses.

Oil prices are going up and the dollar will get wearker due to the coming inflation.

Which is one of the reasons we must continue to ween ourselves off of foreign energy.

Cash for clunkers will be another disaster.

That's just silly. The program is a success for multiple reasons. First of all the automakers are reducing stagnant inventories and we are also reducing the number of inefficient vehicles on the highway, hence reducing our dependence on foreign energy.

Sure Kudlow and crew think that all is fine but people like Peter Schiff and Gerald Celente were right all along and there is no way that I can believe that this recession is over at all

Thanks, for confirming that you are a republican. Schiff is running for Senate as a republican in Connecticut and Celenete appears on Glenn Beck's show.

[Tallman388]

You'll know the recession is over when the GDP report shows continuous growth. If I remember correctly, it's usually 3 consecutive months of growth.

[razorboy]

If I remember correctly, it's usually 3 consecutive months of growth.

And you should contact a doctor.

[WRESTLINGFAN]

In March the market dipped below 7K, now it is above 9.3K. That is a solid recovery.



That would be the price of the subprime mortage fiasco, not of the current market.



Unfortunately jobs are always a lagging indicator of economic conditions. An organization's business must grow before it will add more human capital to its expenses.



Which is one of the reasons we must continue to ween ourselves off of foreign energy.



That's just silly. The program is a success for multiple reasons. First of all the automakers are reducing stagnant inventories and we are also reducing the number of inefficient vehicles on the highway, hence reducing our dependence on foreign energy.



Thanks, for confirming that you are a republican. Schiff is running for Senate as a republican in Connecticut and Celenete appears on Glenn Beck's show.


Who said I am republican? That was your comment. I was one but am a libertarian. I voted for Bob Barr

Schiff and Celente and dont know what they are talking about? Sure Cramer Kudlow and crew are such geniuses

Cash for clunkers is going to be another failure, you dont encourage people to go into more debt. Thats what got us into this mess. Schiff says recession might be over but here comes the depression


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Njg8GY_IRuw

[Bob Impact]

Thanks, for confirming that you are a republican. Schiff is running for Senate as a republican in Connecticut and Celenete appears on Glenn Beck's show.

Saying Schiff was right doesn't make you a republican, it makes you capable of viewing and interpreting facts properly:
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[disneyspy]

a good sign is 20,000 auto workres went back to work in july
the old sayin of as michigan goes so goes the US...

[Bob Impact]

And we'll be midway into 2010 before we see any real movement out of the recession.

[WRESTLINGFAN]

Sure the dow is up from its low of 6500 but there were bear market rallies in the 30s. Many countries might want to dump dollars becaue its not backed by gold or any other commodity. Notice how much gold is going up too?

The Chinese laughed at Geithner a few months back when he said that our dollar was stable. This isnt about being in a political party these are cold hard facts.

[HBox]

Who said I am republican? That was your comment. I was one but am a libertarian. I voted for Bob Barr

Schiff and Celente and dont know what they are talking about? Sure Cramer Kudlow and crew are such geniuses

Cash for clunkers is going to be another failure, you dont encourage people to go into more debt. Thats what got us into this mess. Schiff says recession might be over but here comes the depression


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Njg8GY_IRuw

Schiff was consistently both right and wrong about the current recession. He was one of the few voices warning that a deep recession was coming. But he was wrong and outdated about his reasons why. When he was warning about the current recession he was saying it was coming primarily because or reduced savings and industrial capacity. The reduced savings was a marginal cause, if a cause at all of the current recession. If anything it was an additional symptom of the overboard borrowing and spending of the American consumer in the past decade. The loss of industrial jobs was not a reason and is more a useless wish to go back to a economy that left us a long time ago.

[HBox]

Sure the dow is up from its low of 6500 but there were bear market rallies in the 30s. Many countries might want to dump dollars becaue its not backed by gold or any other commodity. Notice how much gold is going up too?

The Chinese laughed at Geithner a few months back when he said that our dollar was stable. This isnt about being in a political party these are cold hard facts.

Gold standard talk again? Seriously? Are you fucking serious? Countries are going to ditch our currency because it's not backed by gold? And where are they going to go? One of those countries that use a currency backed by gold that doesn't exist?

Stop listening to all of Ron Paul's nonsense. He's usually a fucking idiot.

[WRESTLINGFAN]

Schiff was consistently both right and wrong about the current recession. He was one of the few voices warning that a deep recession was coming. But he was wrong and outdated about his reasons why. When he was warning about the current recession he was saying it was coming primarily because or reduced savings and industrial capacity. The reduced savings was a marginal cause, if a cause at all of the current recession. If anything it was an additional symptom of the overboard borrowing and spending of the American consumer in the past decade. The loss of industrial jobs was not a reason and is more a useless wish to go back to a economy that left us a long time ago.

While I agree that Schiff might have been wrong on some of his predictions his knockout punch was the housing market. The artificially inflated prices of home, the use of homes being ATMs due to refis and all the ARMs that were being written

I do agree strongly that 70% of our economy was based on consumption. Bush made a stupid comment after 9/11 to go shopping. Does a home rally need Plasma TVs in every room? Greed was a strong factor in this. As a libertarian with some conservative views, I believe you have to be fiscally conservative. However, Im not a bible thumper and believe that marijuana should be legal.

Back to the topic, heres a scenario of money being spent since March 2008

Iraq/Afghanistan wars around 100 billion
Stimulus of Feb 08 170 billion
Bear Stearns bailout 30 billion
Housing recovery bill 300 billion
Fannie Freddie Bailout 200 billion
TARP 700 Billion
AIG 185 Billion
Auto Bailouts about 30 billion
Stimulus 2009 787 Billion

It was released yesterday that the deficit is 1.3 trillion and the Fiscal year doesnt end until October

This isnt about blaming Bush or Obama, leave it to the cable tv Gasbags for both the left and the right its real numbers and printing more money isnt going to make things better

[underdog]

Saying Schiff was right doesn't make you a republican, it makes you capable of viewing and interpreting facts properly:
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He's like the anti-Jim Cramer.

[WRESTLINGFAN]

Gold standard talk again? Seriously? Are you fucking serious? Countries are going to ditch our currency because it's not backed by gold? And where are they going to go? One of those countries that use a currency backed by gold that doesn't exist?

Stop listening to all of Ron Paul's nonsense. He's usually a fucking idiot.

The dollar is worth about 25% less than it was in 2000. How is Ron Paul and idiot. Giuliani, Huckabee and others said the same. In fact Ron Paul was right on a lot of things

[HBox]

The dollar is worth about 25% less than it was in 2000. How is Ron Paul and idiot. Giuliani, Huckabee and others said the same. In fact Ron Paul was right on a lot of things

No country uses the world standard. To try and use that to explain why the dollar has fallen in value is illogical and flat out nonsense. It's fallen because we are in a recession, a strong competitor to being the world's reserve currency has emerged (the euro), and countries would rather diversify their holding rather than put their entire lot in with the dollar and rise and fall with us.

Ron Paul was also right for the wrong reasons. He wants us out of Iraq. He thought that because he wants us to be totally isolationist and withdraw from the world. He wants to audit the Federal Reserve....... so he can abolish it. He didn't want any intervention last fall. As shitty as it felt back then at least it looks like we are starting to emerge from the recession.

He's the kind of guy who will follow his ideology regardless of reality.

[WRESTLINGFAN]

Why shouldnt the Fed be audited? In September of 08 they had about 800 billion on their books. Now they have over 2 trillion. Why was Lehman allowed to fail but not Bear? Ron Pauls bill has both sides, even Bernie Sanders in the Senate is for this. The bill is gaining more co sponsors.

The Fed isnt a govenment institution, its a private bank. In some ways Bernanke and the FOMC are more powerful than the president. There is no congressional approval needed to raise/lower interest rates

[Bob Impact]

Why shouldnt the Fed be audited? In September of 08 they had about 800 billion on their books. Now they have over 2 trillion. Why was Lehman allowed to fail but not Bear? Ron Pauls bill has both sides, even Bernie Sanders in the Senate is for this. The bill is gaining more co sponsors.

The Fed isnt a govenment institution, its a private bank. In some ways Bernanke and the FOMC are more powerful than the president. There is no congressional approval needed to raise/lower interest rates


QFT.

[Syd]

Why was Lehman allowed to fail but not Bear?

Lehman failed because no one wanted to interfere with the "free market" and help them out. When it did, the financial crisis really became an actual crisis and it set off a massive, fuck off chain reaction that really plunged us into a recession. Bear was saved because everyone saw how incestuously linked the institutions all were and that the money spent in the here and now was far less than the money lost in the future because of the failure.

As far as the gold standard thing is -- it's basically a marketing ploy by the few people that still actively deal in gold. It's not a terribly worthwhile commodity nowadays with most governments sitting on top of their supplies. More valuable commodities are in the form of platinum, palladium and some alkalis such as lithium. They're in a more limited supply with a much, much higher demand.

Last but not least, gold standard is pretty much impossible. There's not enough available gold to maintain the GDP of the United States. Beyond that, the value of gold is very arbitrary. It's usefulness is in decline -- other elements are becoming more important in modern society. I'd sooner back my money with something like aluminum or copper seeing as all of this is used extensively all around you, especially in durable goods.

As far as the recession goes, unemployment should be peaking soon and we'll see real job growth beginning sometime midway through the first quarter of next year.

[sailor]

the fed is not a private bank. it's our central bank and it's effectively government run.

[WRESTLINGFAN]

I think this might be called a mini depression. The recession began in December 2007, they usually last 15 months, This will probably last 3 years

[Bob Impact]

the fed is not a private bank. it's our central bank and it's effectively government run.

First of all there isn't one giant "The Fed" bank, there are a series of private banks that are overseen by a Board of Governors with very little auditing/oversight from independent organizations. It's amazing to me that people just act like this is OK.

[HBox]

Why shouldnt the Fed be audited? In September of 08 they had about 800 billion on their books. Now they have over 2 trillion. Why was Lehman allowed to fail but not Bear? Ron Pauls bill has both sides, even Bernie Sanders in the Senate is for this. The bill is gaining more co sponsors.

The Fed isnt a govenment institution, its a private bank. In some ways Bernanke and the FOMC are more powerful than the president. There is no congressional approval needed to raise/lower interest rates

I'm not saying it shouldn't be audited. I'm saying the only reason Paul is doing it is because he wants it abolished and thinks he will gain support to do so after an audit. He's only interested in doing so as means in his quest to destroy it.

[WRESTLINGFAN]

First of all there isn't one giant "The Fed" bank, there are a series of private banks that are overseen by a Board of Governors with very little auditing/oversight from independent organizations. It's amazing to me that people just act like this is OK.

My bad I should have elaborated on that. I think there are a total of 12 regional banks all together scattered all around the country

[Recyclerz]

My $0.02 on what's next for the economy:

There probably will be some GDP growth in the 3rd & 4th quarters technically ending the recession. I think the growth will be weak by historical standards and unemployment is going to be an issue for the next few years.

The Fed has exhausted its arsenal of fixes in keeping the economy out of depression so they won't/can't encourage the recovery. The only gov't. action they can still pull off is fiscal stimulus and the Republicans/Blue Dogs/Chinese bond buyers are putting the kibosh on another round of that. Plus most consumers have woken up and realized they still have unsustainable levels of debt so growth in demand is going to be slow.

Fears of inflation are overstated in the short and medium terms because of said weak demand and the almost complete lack of bargaining power of labor (union & non-union) to demand higher wages. The tough job for Bernanke and Geitner is to take back some of the money they were throwing at everything 6 to 12 months ago without killing demand and tipping the economy back into recession.

Longer term, spending on Social Security and Medicare has to be trimmed back and new taxes (probably a value added tax) are going to be put on everybody, not just the "rich". If this doesn't happen, we'll be a third world country (at least in economic terms) in our lifetimes.

Have a nice night! :bye:

[sailor]

First of all there isn't one giant "The Fed" bank, there are a series of private banks that are overseen by a Board of Governors with very little auditing/oversight from independent organizations. It's amazing to me that people just act like this is OK.

first of all i said "the fed is...our central bank" as a shortcut for saying the federal reserve system is our central banking system. please, don't play word games and act like it's anything else.

second, they are subject to congressional oversight. if you're saying the gov't isn't doing its job, fine, but the oversight is there. the regional banks are semi-public/semi-private, not private banks.

[Crash]

Two interesting takes on this from Forbes.com.

First is a look at the Fed's strategy for the next four months:
http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/11/federal-reserve-economy-business-washington-dollar.html


If the Fed is confident about the recovery, it may announce Wednesday the timing of its plans to take the economy off life support (http://topics.forbes.com/life%20support). But the Federal Reserve is more concerned with employment--the Fed has a mandate to seek full employment and price stability. Most people certainly care more about having a job than about a measure like the GDP expanding.


The second is a brief article on the "Recovery":
http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/31/economy-recession-gdp-business-beltway-gdp-update.html


The trends are in place for growth in the third quarter. More confident consumers, a stabilizing housing market, a better outlook for businesses and a big (but temporary) boost from the government help in the short term. Indeed, it may eventually be determined that the recession has already ended (though not everywhere).


In the words of the great Homer Simpson, "So in answer to your question, I don't know."

[lleeder]

I know we facin a recession but the music yall makin gonna make it the great depression

[Bob Impact]

Q1 08: -.7
Q2 08: 1.5
Q3 08: -2.7
Q4 08: -5.4
Q1 09: -6.4
Q2 09: -1.0

No we aren't out yet, and we have 2 quarters at a bare minimum until we can even start to think about being out, assuming we get real GDP growth in Q3, which has gone from an estimate of a 1.5% rise down to .5% over the last couple of months..

[Bob Impact]

first of all i said "the fed is...our central bank" as a shortcut for saying the federal reserve system is our central banking system. please, don't play word games and act like it's anything else.

second, they are subject to congressional oversight. if you're saying the gov't isn't doing its job, fine, but the oversight is there. the regional banks are semi-public/semi-private, not private banks.

There's no oversight of their lending, monetary policy or meetings. They are private banks owned by stockholders who take 6% of any profit before it goes to the treasury. All of this is superfluous to me as I'm not a fan of any of it, and no I don't think congress should be involved, I just find it odd that so few people question any of this.

[Gvac]

I don't know if the recession is over, but the past two weeks have been the busiest I've had at work in a year.

It's CRAZY.

I can't wait to piss away a few checks!